(Economic Observation) Can China's property market welcome the heavy new policy "Golden Nine Silver Ten"?
China News Agency, Beijing, August 25th: Can China's property market welcome the heavy new policy "Golden Nine Silver Ten"?
China News Agency reporter Pang Wuji
China's property market welcomes another major new policy.
The executive meeting of the State Council held a few days ago proposed to allow local "one city, one policy" to flexibly use credit and other policies to reasonably support rigid and improved housing needs.
What does it mean that the state allows "one city, one policy" to use the credit policy?
Just a few days ago, the LPR (loan market quoted rate), which is a reference for mortgage interest rates over 5 years, was significantly cut by 15 basis points.
What are the effects of the combination of the above-mentioned new policies and mortgage interest rate cuts?
"One City One Policy" Upgraded Version
Li Yujia, chief researcher of the Housing Policy Research Center of the Guangdong Provincial Urban Planning Institute, said that since the second half of 2016, China's housing credit policy has always adhered to the idea of "one city, one policy".
The basic logic is that the operating situation of real estate in different places is different, and the market is different. It is no longer suitable for the central bank to issue a “one-size-fits-all” reduction in the down payment ratio for the first home in the country.
However, since the second half of 2016, despite the differences in down payment ratios and interest rates in different regions, local credit policies are issued by local financial departments, and they need to be above the bottom line of the central bank’s differentiated housing credit policy (for example, the down payment ratio for the first home is not lower than 25%, etc.), there is not much room for local regulation.
After the introduction of this policy, Li Yujia believes that the coordination between local governments and financial management departments will increase.
In the past, the goals of the two have sometimes been different, but under the current situation, the two should return to the framework of joint cooperation and work together to stabilize the real estate market with "one city, one policy".
Chen Xiao, a senior analyst at Zhuge Housing Data Research Center, also believes that allowing local “one city, one policy” to use credit and other policies means that in the next local regulation, credit policy will be used as an important tool in the regulation toolbox. .
In the past, local support for the property market was mainly focused on relaxing restrictions on purchases and sales, increasing housing subsidies, and relaxing settlement. Most of the changes in credit policies were used to adjust provident fund loan limits.
Chen Xiao believes that on the whole, the local use of credit means is not much, and it is subject to certain constraints.
After the New Deal is issued, it will leave more room for local regulation and control.
Property market recovery expected to accelerate
Chen Wenjing, market research director of the Index Division of the China Index Research Institute, pointed out that policies such as reducing mortgage interest rates and allowing local "one city, one policy" to use credit have further clarified the central government's support for the stable development of the real estate market.
In the short term, localities are expected to increase their efforts to reduce the cost of house purchases and optimize credit policies by reducing down payments and interest rates.
Especially in the core second-tier cities, it is expected that the policy of recognizing houses and loans will be optimized to promote the release of reasonable housing demand.
At present, the real estate market in second-tier cities is showing strong resilience.
According to official data, the second-tier cities that saw a steady recovery in the property market in July were mainly second-tier cities, including Chengdu, Nanchang, Yangzhou, Hangzhou, and Hefei.
Most of them have good economic fundamentals, and the potential for housing demand is still there.
With the optimization of the home purchase credit policy, these cities are expected to become the "locomotives" driving the recovery of the property market.
Chen Xiao also believes that policies such as allowing local "one city, one policy" to use credit are a follow-up measure to the mortgage interest rate cut a few days ago.
Next, lowering the down payment ratio, lowering the mortgage interest rate, and adjusting the loan amount will be more widely used.
This is a major positive for both homebuyers and the real estate market, which is conducive to increasing market activity, boosting confidence, and stabilizing the market and stabilizing expectations.
Since the beginning of this year, according to the statistics of the China Index Research Institute, more than 240 places in China have optimized and adjusted real estate-related policies more than 650 times.
Chen Wenjing believes that in the near future, under the guidance of the central government's policy, the rhythm of city-specific policies is expected to accelerate, and the market is expected to enter a new round of policy-focused introduction period.
The traditional "Golden Nine Silver Ten" in the property market is coming.
Chen Wenjing said that the superposition of these positive policy signals will help market expectations to improve.
With the continuous optimization of policies, the activity of the property market is expected to improve compared with July-August, and it is expected that the market in hot cities may gradually stabilize and recover.
does not mean a major loosening
Implementing policies because of the city does not mean significantly loosening the ties.
Li Yujia emphasized that these policies do not mean that funds should flow into real estate on a large scale, but to better coordinate credit policies, tax policies, and land policies to help local governments implement a package of relief policies, so as to stabilize the real estate market as soon as possible.
At the same time, he pointed out that this does not mean that local governments should significantly loosen down payments and lower interest rates, but that the credit policy should be in line with the local government's "one city, one policy" framework.
For third- and fourth-tier cities, if there is room for downward adjustment, the down payment ratio will likely be lowered, but for first-tier cities, the policy will still be more cautious.
City-specific policies will be further deepened.
(Finish)