Author: Ma Chenchen ▪ Li Xiuzhong
How hot is this summer?
On August 21, the Central Meteorological Observatory issued a high temperature red warning for the tenth consecutive day.
Since this month, the temperature of nearly 200 national observation stations in Chongqing, Sichuan, Zhejiang, Jiangxi, Hubei, Hunan, Shaanxi and other places has exceeded 40°C.
As of the 20th, a total of 65 national stations across the country have exceeded historical extremes in temperature.
Intertwined with the high temperature and heat waves, there are also dry weather.
On August 18, the Central Meteorological Observatory issued the first yellow warning for meteorological drought this year, which was upgraded to an orange warning on the 20th.
It is expected that in the next three days, most of the dry areas involving more than ten provinces will maintain high temperature and little rain, and the meteorological drought will continue to develop.
The rare extreme weather is showing its dangerous side: in the Yangtze River Basin, the "flood season anti-drying" of many water levels has broken through the historical lowest level since the hydrological record, and autumn grain production is tight in disaster prevention and mitigation; Sichuan and Chongqing areas have the highest load of electricity demand Repeatedly setting records, facing the severe situation of increasing power shortage, we have successively started high-temperature production restrictions to "let electricity be used by the people"...
Lin Boqiang, dean of the China Energy Policy Research Institute of Xiamen University, told Yicai that the sharp increase in electricity demand under high temperature and the sharp drop in hydropower output caused by drought are the two main reasons for the shortage of electricity supply and demand in some areas.
At present, the relevant departments have strengthened the "combination punch" of ensuring power supply, exerting efforts from both the supply side and the demand side, and at the same time coordinating cross-regional and cross-provincial surplus and shortage mutual aid.
According to the incomplete statistics of the first financial reporter, since this year, more than ten provinces including Anhui, Guizhou, Hebei, Guangdong, Chongqing, Zhejiang, Fujian, Shandong, Ningxia, Hubei have successively issued documents to improve the details of the demand-side response mechanism in the power market and mobilize the market. Subject actively participates.
"As the summer comes to an end and the temperature drops, it is expected that the 'electricity shortage' in most areas will be significantly eased within a week or two," said Lin Boqiang.
Sichuan-Chongqing Electricity Limitation and Production Limitation
High temperature and drought hit the Sichuan-Chongqing region, which has a great impact on energy supply, industry and agriculture, consumption and other fields
The data shows that since July 1, the average temperature in Chongqing has been significantly higher. The city's average temperature is 30.5°C, which is significantly higher than normal by 2.6°C. It is tied with 2006 as the highest since 1961 and has significantly less precipitation.
Continued high temperatures and low rainfall have led to droughts, with agriculture bearing the brunt.
The video conference on agricultural drought relief and bumper harvest held in Sichuan Province held on August 18 also pointed out that since July this year, Sichuan Province has encountered a wide range of long-term extreme high temperature and dry weather, and some local crops have been severely affected.
At present, the province's summer grain harvest has been bumper, but the bulk of the annual grain is still autumn grain.
According to the forecast of the meteorological department, the high temperature weather in Sichuan Province may last until the end of August, which brings severe challenges to autumn grain production.
A large orchard farmer told Yicai that the drought was "almost a catastrophic disaster for agriculture".
The farmer has thousands of acres of citrus orchards.
Drought has a great impact on fruit growth and quality.
Affected by the continuous high temperature and drought, the Chongqing section of the Yangtze River has a rare water situation of "reverse dry season during the flood season", and the water level of the Yangtze River waterway has repeatedly hit new lows in the same period.
The water level data released by the Yangtze River Navigation Bureau showed that at 8:00 on August 21, the water level in Chongqing Cuntan was 162.37 meters, down 0.46 meters from the previous day.
At 8:00 on August 7, the water level of Chongqing Cuntan was 165.64 meters.
During these two weeks, the water level of the Yangtze River has dropped by 3 meters.
The high temperature and lack of rain have also caused the hydropower generation capacity of Sichuan Province to drop by more than 50%. At the same time, the electricity load has increased by 25%, and the social electricity consumption has risen sharply, resulting in a power shortage.
In order to ensure electricity consumption for people's livelihood, government departments have taken measures to cut and curb electricity for industry and commerce in accordance with emergency plans.
From 00:00 on August 15th to 24:00 on the 20th, Sichuan expanded the scope of industrial enterprises to allow electricity to be used by the people, and implemented a total production shutdown (security protection) for all industrial power users (including whitelisted key guarantee enterprises) in the orderly electricity consumption plan of Sichuan Power Grid. Except for the load), take a high temperature holiday, and let the electricity be used by the people.
From 00:00 on August 17th to 24:00 on August 24th, Chongqing also launched the first-level plan for orderly electricity consumption. All power users included in the orderly electricity consumption plan must participate in the implementation (except for security loads), so that electricity can be used by the people, and the follow-up time It will also be adjusted in time according to temperature changes and supply and demand conditions.
At 0:00 on August 21, Sichuan Province launched a first-level emergency response to energy supply guarantee for emergencies.
This is the first time that Sichuan has launched the highest level of emergency response since the General Office of the Sichuan Provincial Government issued the "Emergency Plan for Energy Supply Guarantee in Sichuan Province (Trial)" in January 2022. Level 3 and Level 4 responses).
Not only in industrial enterprises, but also in the commercial retail industry. Since August 17, office buildings and shopping malls in Sichuan and Chongqing have also adopted power curtailment measures to reduce electricity load.
Some office buildings and shopping malls have turned off air conditioners, disabled some elevators, and closed a large number of outdoor advertisements.
According to a person from the Real Estate Management Department of an institution, some large office buildings have cut their electricity load by 70%.
The Sichuan-Chongqing region is an important production base for the electronic information industry and automobile industry in the country, as well as an important production base for power batteries and photovoltaic crystalline silicon in the country.
With many leading enterprises in these industries, as well as relatively large supporting production enterprises, it occupies an important part in the national and even global industrial chain.
Power outages will have an impact on enterprise production and even the entire supply chain.
However, after the power outage measures, some companies are also actively responding.
According to a person from a large enterprise, they are large production lines and can only stop all production. Some production lines can still rely on their own power generation equipment to maintain part of their production.
Other companies have also responded by adjusting their production schedules.
According to the meteorological forecast, the temperature in the Sichuan-Chongqing area will turn around by August 25.
Therefore, industrial and commercial enterprises are looking forward to the cooling of the weather to ease the power consumption and resume production and operation.
On August 20, at the second press briefing on Sichuan Energy Supply Guarantee, Tan Hongen, Chairman of State Grid Sichuan Electric Power Company, said that the recent power-saving actions of the whole society have achieved certain results. The peak of 59.1 million kilowatts fell to more than 47 million kilowatts.
Zhai Gang, director of the Sichuan Provincial Department of Economy and Information Technology, said at the meeting that the next step will be to prepare both hands, and to make emergency plans under extreme conditions in accordance with the requirements of bottom-line thinking and extreme thinking.
At the same time, strengthen research and analysis. After the high temperature weather has eased and the hydropower generation capacity has been improved, the company will be organized in advance to restore electricity and resume production, full power and full production, rush the progress, and make up the arrears.
Electric power "big test" stimulates market adjustment
The recent high temperature and drought have exacerbated the short-term and local conflicts between power supply and demand.
Since the beginning of summer, the load of 5 regional power grids and 19 provincial power grids of State Grid has repeatedly hit new highs.
In order to do a good job in the summer season, more and more provinces and cities encourage peak shaving and valley filling, load aggregators, etc. to participate in "demand response" based on the characteristics of power grid operation and load.
"Demand response" is a new method to solve the balance of power supply and demand from the demand side after the power development has entered a new stage.
Different from orderly electricity consumption, demand response is the active response of electricity users to electricity prices or incentive signals, which is mainly manifested in the temporary change of electricity consumption behavior of users, that is, according to the level of electricity price or the size of incentives, the power load is temporarily adjusted.
Regarding the detailed rules for improving the demand-side response mechanism of the electricity market issued by several provinces, Wang Yongli, deputy director of the Energy Internet Research Center of North China Electric Power University, told Yicai that, as a "buffer zone" before starting orderly electricity consumption, the demand-response mechanism can effectively reduce the risk of The comprehensive social cost of "power shortage".
It can not only save investment, but also ensure the safety of power grid.
According to rough calculations by industry insiders, the entire system investment to meet the newly added load of 1kW terminals reaches more than 10,000 yuan, and the electricity consumption period that exceeds 95% of the maximum load of the entire network in a year is less than 100 hours.
Considering the full cost and meeting the peak load demand through equipment investment, the total cost per kilowatt year is about 1,000 yuan.
The cost of adopting demand response is extremely low. Due to the low utilization hours during peak hours, if the peak load is reduced by 5%, the impact of annual power loss is also small.
A person from a power grid in China told reporters that this year, local companies applied in advance to reduce electricity load during peak periods, and paid service fees according to the amount of electricity saved, which is equivalent to companies taking the initiative to avoid peaks.
"It turned out that there was no money subsidy, and the power grid company arranged for companies to stagger the electricity use time. Now there is."
In various places, the actual effect of the demand-side response of the power market has gradually emerged.
According to the "Changjiang Daily" report in mid-August, in the past week, a total of 2,128 enterprises in Wuhan responded to the call to save electricity and make electricity available to the people, reducing a total of 2.19 million in 4 "demand response" actions. The remaining kilowatt load is used for electricity consumption by residents, providing important support for the stable electricity consumption of the people during peak electricity consumption.
In addition to "demand response", my country's electricity spot market has also been hot recently.
On August 21, the daily report of the trial operation of the electricity spot market settlement in the south (starting from Guangdong) showed that the weighted average electricity price (including nuclear power) on the power generation side was about 0.58 yuan/kWh.
In the same week, the weighted average electricity price (including nuclear power) on the power generation side of the market was as high as about 0.86 yuan/kWh.
Compared with previous years, the average electricity price in this market has hit a higher position.
It is generally believed in the industry that the price of electricity in the electricity market, especially the spot market, actually reflects the balance of electricity supply and demand.
The higher the electricity price, the more serious the shortage of supply is; the lower the electricity price, the more serious the oversupply is.
The "hot" spot market mentioned above is the result of the "two-pronged approach" of the tight balance between power supply and demand and the innovation of market-oriented mechanisms.
In early August, the Guangdong Electric Power Trading Center issued the "Notice on Suspending the Execution of Price Restrictions Relevant Clauses", stating that in order to ensure the effective detection of spot market prices and mobilize the enthusiasm of power generation enterprises to generate electricity, the implementation of two price limits was suspended: setting spot electricity price quotations by type. Upper and Secondary Price Limit Clauses.
A reporter from China Business News found that the transaction results of multiple power trading centers across the country showed that the scale of participating market entities and transaction prices have increased significantly.
Taking Jiangsu as an example, in August 2022, the results of Jiangsu electricity centralized bidding transaction showed that the transaction amounted to 12.207 billion kWh and the transaction price was 469 yuan/MWh.
It is worth noting that the transaction price has risen by a maximum of 20% in accordance with the current regulations, and has increased by 23% year-on-year.
Yuan Jiahai, a professor at the School of Economics and Management of North China Electric Power University, told Yicai that extreme weather is likely to become the norm in the future.
In order to ensure the security of the power grid, it is necessary to improve the supporting power marketization mechanism to maximize the optimal allocation of resources.
By deepening the reform of the power demand side, the market-oriented approach is used to guide power users to actively stagger and avoid peaks.
In this process, emerging markets such as electricity spot market, ancillary services market, integrated energy services, and virtual power plants are promising.