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's friendly economy time.
Reporter Han Ji-yeon is here.
The minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting of the US Federal Reserve were released, and the Korean stock market fell a little in the aftermath.
<Reporter> The
KOSPI fell for the second day, threatening the 2,500 line.
The market closed at 2,508.05, down 0.33% from the previous trading day, and at one point during the day it fell to 2,480 units.
The July FOMC minutes, released the day before, emphasized that "the base rate should be raised enough to dampen economic growth until inflation is caught", but growing concerns about austerity had an impact.
The FOMC, which sets the US benchmark interest rate, is scheduled for September next month, and the majority opinion is that it will take a big step by raising the rate by 0.5 percentage points after the announcement of the minutes.
According to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange Group's Fed Watch, the probability of a big step is 65%.
Although there are predictions that it will be lower than the last time, there is still growing anxiety about austerity, and the won-dollar exchange rate, which is a safe asset, rose by more than 10 won in one day.
It closed at 1,320.7 won and closed at 1,320 won in one month.
The New York Stock Exchange, which all fell after the minutes were released, all fell yesterday (the 18th).
Today it has risen slightly.
The Dow rose 0.06%, the S&P 500 rose 0.23% and the Nasdaq rose 0.21%, just closing the previous session.
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The market is predicting that the US will continue to raise interest rates for a while, but it remains to be seen how much the increase will be.
What is the mood of the Bank of Korea?
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Yes, next week.
The Monetary Policy Committee will decide what to do with the base rate on the 25th.
Our base rate went up to 2.25% on the 13th of last month, taking the big step of raising it by 0.5 percentage points.
Since then, the US Federal Reserve has taken a giant step in raising the benchmark interest rate by 0.75 percentage points for two straight months last month, rising to 2.5%.
As the U.S. overtook Korea, interest rates in Korea and the U.S. reversed for the first time in two and a half years.
A wide inverted interest rate differential is also a burden, and inflationary pressures remain.
Although domestic oil prices have fallen a bit, the already soaring raw material prices are still encouraging inflation, which is not easy to resolve within this year.
Therefore, the Bank of Korea believes that it will have no choice but to raise the base rate from the high 2% to 3% by the end of the year.
There is no disagreement that the base rate will be raised next week, but there are many opinions that it is a baby step because it seems unlikely that another big step will be made as the inversion of the base rate in Korea and the US is already expected.
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As interest rates rise, it has a significant impact on house prices.
In the meantime, there are various reasons, but most of the apartment prices are falling now, but as of the third week of August, house prices in Seoul are now down in all 25 districts.
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Yes, it is the first time in three years and six months that apartment prices have fallen all at once in 25 autonomous districts.
In the third week of August, house prices in Seoul fell by 0.09%, the 15th week of decline.
It also increased by 0.01 percentage points from the previous week.
In Jeonju, in 25 districts, only Yongsan-gu and Seocho-gu maintained 'consolidation', but this time even this fell and turned negative.
In particular, Seocho-gu is worth paying attention to. In the meantime, while the real estate market was frozen, it showed an upward trend for over 5 months from the third week of March, but after returning to flat for two weeks from the first week of August, 0.01 in the third week of this survey % appears to have dropped.
As interest rates rise, it becomes difficult to get a loan, and as house prices are perceived to be high, the transaction cliff is prolonged, and eventually even Seocho's invincibility is collapsing.
The asking price for an 84-square-meter apartment in Banpo-dong, Seocho-gu, which was 4.5 billion won at the beginning of the year, recently dropped to 4 billion won.
Another apartment of the same size has not been sold since it was traded at a price 100 million less than the asking price at the beginning of the year in May.
In the future, interest rates are going to go up.
Now, the maximum interest rate for a mortgage loan has risen to the 6% level again, and if this trend continues, there is a forecast that the loan interest rate will reach 8% by the end of the year, and there are many opinions that house prices will fall further in the future.