Reporter Zhao Binbin
Decentralized wind power will usher in a period of rapid development.
Recently, Zhangjiakou City proposed that from September 1, 2022, Zhangjiakou City will adjust the wind power project from the approval system to the filing system. This policy is considered by the industry to be the first officially implemented local wind power filing system policy.
In addition, a few days ago, Wang Dapeng, deputy director of the New Energy and Renewable Energy Department of the National Energy Administration, publicly stated that he is currently organizing the preparation of the "Thousands of Towns and Tens of Villages Wind Harness Action" plan, and strives to promote its implementation as soon as possible.
With the continuous implementation of policies, the concept stocks related to wind power in the A-share market have also risen.
Flush data shows that from August 15 to August 17, the wind power concept index rose from 902.39 points to 956.21 points, an increase of 5.96% in three trading days.
Among them, on August 17, the wind power concept index rose by 1.24%.
In terms of individual stocks, on August 17, 14 wind power concept stocks such as Baota Industry and Chuanrun shares reached the daily limit.
Decentralized wind power ushered in a period of opportunity
Onshore centralized wind power, offshore wind power and decentralized wind power are known as the "troika" driving the large-scale development of domestic wind power.
However, compared with onshore centralized wind power and offshore wind power, the development of decentralized wind power is obviously lagging behind.
According to Wang Dapeng, by the end of 2021, the installed capacity of my country's onshore wind power has exceeded 300 million kilowatts, and offshore wind power ranks first in the world, but the development of decentralized wind power in China is still relatively slow.
According to industry statistics, by the end of 2021, the installed capacity of decentralized wind power is only about 10 million kilowatts, accounting for a relatively low proportion of installed wind power.
In particular, among the newly installed wind power capacity in the first half of this year, the newly installed capacity in the "Three Norths" areas, which are dominated by centralized wind power, accounted for 84% of the national total. The development of decentralized wind power has a long way to go.
"Large-scale promotion of decentralized wind power projects requires consideration of cost. Due to the small scale of individual projects and high costs, cost reduction is crucial for the rapid development of decentralized wind power." Lin Boqiang, Dean of the China Energy Policy Research Institute of Xiamen University To the "Securities Daily" reporter, at the same time, it is also necessary to pay attention to the local land policy.
Different from distributed photovoltaics, distributed wind power occupies a relatively large area, and the large-scale development of distributed wind power requires local governments to coordinate in terms of land policies and other aspects.
Complex approval procedures also restrict the development of decentralized wind power.
A person in the wind power industry told the "Securities Daily" reporter, "The approval system adopted by my country's wind power projects, for large base projects, such as 1G watt projects, all approval documents can be obtained by running the process once. In terms of projects, due to the small capacity of a single project, only tens of megawatts or even a dozen megawatts of wind power projects can be obtained in one approval process, which is an important reason why companies were not very enthusiastic about decentralized wind power in the past.”
However, decentralized wind projects also have clear advantages.
"Decentralized wind power is consumed locally and is very close to the electricity market, which can reduce or save transmission costs." Lin Boqiang said.
"The biggest advantage of decentralized wind power projects is flexible installation and easy consumption of power output." Qi Haishen, president of Beijing Teyi Sunshine New Energy, told the "Securities Daily" reporter that with the advancement of the "dual carbon" goal, small and medium-sized With the reduction of wind power installation cost and the improvement of power generation efficiency, small and medium-sized distributed wind power generation also has higher economic benefits.
Lin Boqiang said that in the future new energy system, wind power and photovoltaics will account for 65% to 70%, while the current proportion of wind power and photovoltaics in the energy structure is less than 5%, and wind power still has a lot of room for development.
Centralized wind power and decentralized wind power have their own advantages and are indispensable. The future potential of decentralized wind power is huge.
Overweight layout of industrial chain companies
Zhu Hualei, a senior investment consultant at Jufeng Investment Consulting, told the "Securities Daily" reporter that the main purpose of the state's promotion of the "Thousands of Towns and Tens of Villages to Harness the Wind" is to adjust the energy structure, promote the development of renewable energy, and reduce carbon emissions.
"With the successive introduction of relevant policies, the decentralized wind power industry is expected to usher in a period of development opportunities." The above-mentioned wind power industry insiders said that in May this year, the relevant state departments issued the "Implementation Plan for Promoting the High-quality Development of New Energy in the New Era". It is proposed to promote the adjustment of wind power projects from the approval system to the filing system.
After the adjustment, the approval process for decentralized wind power projects will be simplified, which will attract more companies to participate in the development of decentralized wind power projects.
The development of decentralized wind power will bring development opportunities for wind power OEMs.
According to estimates by Guosen Securities, the "Thousands of Towns and Tens of Villages Wind Control Plan" and the renovation policy for old units are expected to boost the average annual demand for wind turbines from 50GW to 60GW to 70GW during my country's "14th Five-Year Plan" period, and the growth rate from 2023 to 2025 is expected to increase from The original 10% has been increased to 25%.
It is understood that a number of listed companies in the wind power industry chain have deployed decentralized wind power.
A relevant person from the securities department of Yunda Co., Ltd. said, "The company has products for decentralized wind power projects, and the company is optimistic about the future development prospects of this field and will actively participate in it."
The latest data from the "China Wind Power Industry Map 2021" recently released by the Wind Energy Special Committee of the China Renewable Energy Society shows that by the end of 2021, 13 complete machine manufacturing companies have newly installed distributed wind power, and listed companies account for the majority.
Among them, Goldwind's newly installed capacity was 2.672 million kilowatts, accounting for 33.3%, ranking first; Yunda's newly installed capacity was 1.51 million kilowatts, accounting for 18.8%, followed closely.
In addition, Mingyang Intelligent, Sany Heavy Energy, CRRC Wind Power (a subsidiary of CRRC) and other companies are also in the forefront.
Zhu Hualei said that with the rapid growth of new wind power installed capacity, upstream parts companies in the wind power industry will usher in development opportunities, and listed companies such as Dongfang Cable, Xinqianglian, Daikin Heavy Industry, Tianshun Wind Energy, and Jinlei will also benefit. .
Wind power industry chain companies are also taking advantage of the situation to increase their layout.
On August 17, Longhua New Materials announced that it plans to invest about 600 million yuan to build an 80,000-ton/year terminal amino polyether project.
The company said that with the gradual improvement of the wind power industry, the market demand for amino-terminated polyether has a good development prospect.
"Compared with centralized wind power, the specifications of decentralized wind power fans are relatively smaller, and the specifications of parts and components will be smaller accordingly, and the other differences are not significant." A secretary of the board of directors of a wind power core component company told the "Securities Daily" reporter, The company has previously applied its products to distributed wind power projects such as tea gardens in Guizhou.