Debate in Germany: What can Berlin's small nuclear solution look like?

In the Berlin nuclear power debate, there is a calm before the storm, or rather: between the storms.

At first things got very busy because, in addition to the opposition Union, the ruling FDP could also imagine continued operation of the last three reactors in the coming year.

SPD and Greens were against it, but not wholeheartedly.

Finally, it was decided, led by Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD), not to comment on the subject again until a new analysis of the stability of the power supply was available, the so-called stress test.

Everyone is eagerly awaiting this, as soon as the result is there, the debate is likely to make waves again.

Christian Geinitz

Business correspondent in Berlin

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A report by the Wall Street Journal, according to which the government had already decided to leave the reactors connected to the grid, caused unrest in the meantime.

However, the Ministry of Economic Affairs immediately rejected this.

Now, denials don't always have to be true.

But from circles of the transmission system operators, who calculate the stress test, it can be heard that there are still no recommendations for continued operation.

If the traffic light has already made it through to this, it means a decision without taking the recalculation into account.

However, such a rush is considered unlikely because the SPD and Greens will only accept the extension of the term if the technical necessity is proven.

The ministry also pointed out on Wednesday that the stress test was still ongoing, meaning that nothing had been decided.

As the FAZ learned from the industry, results can be expected at the end of August.

The stress test is the continuation of a "special analysis of the power supply" that the three network operators Amprion, 50Hertz, Tennet and Transnet carried out between March and May.

At that time, they certified safe operation of the power grid in winter, even if the last nuclear power plants were to be shut down at the end of December, as required by law.

"It's only about a temporary, possible extension"

Since then, however, conditions have worsened.

Russia is supplying less and less gas, France needs more German energy, low water levels are making it difficult to transport coal, and higher electricity consumption for heating is to be expected in winter.

So that as little gas as possible is used to generate electricity, coal-fired power plants should be taken from the reserve, which is not easy either.

Due to all these imponderables, it could well be that the stress test recommends the temporary continuation of nuclear fission, at least in the Isar II power plant near Landshut.

Because in Bavaria, nuclear power covers 10 percent of the electricity requirement, and 6 percent throughout Germany.

The Southeast produces little coal and wind power and is particularly dependent on Russian natural gas.

There is solar power, Austria supplies hydropower.

But in winter it is dark longer and the snow in the mountains binds the water.

That's why the state government made up of the CSU and Free Voters wants to keep Isar 2 online, and in the capital Munich the SPD and the Greens have also spoken out in favor of it.

The other two nuclear plants are Neckarwestheim 2 in Baden-Württemberg and Emsland in Lower Saxony.

While the SPD-led government in Hanover, which faces elections in October, rejects extensions, the Greens in Stuttgart do not want to categorically rule out the possibility.

"It's only about a temporary, possible extension," says Prime Minister Winfried Kretschmann.

That is precisely the crucial question: If the reactors are allowed to remain connected to the grid, then for how long?

Stretching operation with existing fuel rods is possible.

This would be possible for a few months from January, but could not relieve the winter of 2023/2024.

In order to achieve this, you would have to order new elements as soon as possible, which have a delivery time of one year.

The Association of Nuclear Technology Germany names mid-October as the latest date;

that would be after the Lower Saxony elections and the party congress of the Greens.

Union and FDP think such a "reloading" is conceivable, because the energy crisis is far from over.

The SPD and the Greens, on the other hand, fear opening Pandora's box, i.e. allowing the "exit of the exit", which contradicts the coalition agreement and the social consensus.

However, in a recent survey, 78 percent said the nuclear power plants should continue to run until next summer.

67 percent were in favor of an extension of five years.

41 percent even called for new systems.

Nevertheless, it will be difficult for the Greens to jump over their shadow.

They could go along with the stretching operation, but should prevent reloading, so that the end of nuclear technology would finally come to an end in mid-2023.

Nevertheless, even for this small solution, the Atomic Energy Act would have to be changed and the exemption from periodic safety reviews would have to be extended, which should actually have been due in 2019.

For the record-high electricity prices, continued operation for several years would probably be the better way, since the nuclear power plants produce particularly cheaply.