Recently, many home buyers are actively getting rid of their "negative" status and joining the army of early repayment of home loans.

  On the other hand, many cities expect residents to add leverage back.

In the past 4 days, Nanjing, Suzhou, Wuxi, and Jinan, four strong second-tier cities, have further reduced the down payment ratio for a second home. The minimum down payment for a second home is only 30% or 40%, which is equivalent to the threshold for purchasing a first home in the past.

  However, a series of data shows that many home buyers actively reduce their leverage by repaying loans in advance and borrowing less new debt.

According to statistics from the E-House Research Institute, in the second quarter of this year, the national household purchase leverage ratio dropped to 21.2%, a record low in ten years.

According to the data released by the central bank at the end of July, the balance of personal housing loans in the second quarter of this year was 38.86 trillion yuan, an increase of only 6.2% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 5.1 percentage points lower than that at the end of the previous year, and the growth rate hit a new low in 13 years.

  How to reverse home buyers' expectations for risk management has become a key point in activating the property market today.

  Early repayment and less new debt

  "Last year, I paid off a mortgage of 1.2 million yuan in advance, and recently I paid off another 150,000 yuan." Zhang Qiu is the director of a foreign company in Shanghai. He has worked hard for many years in a first-tier city. Since last year, he decided to gradually implement early loan repayment.

  Zhang Qiu told Yicai that after repaying another 150,000 yuan recently, the remaining mortgage is less than 1 million yuan, and his and his wife's provident fund can fully cover the monthly repayment amount, which means that they no longer have to pay from their wages every month. Pulling out money to call the repayment account not only saves some trouble, but also makes it easier psychologically.

  In addition to peace of mind, there are rational calculations.

Zhang Qiu’s second home was bought in 2019, and he did not use a provident fund loan. The mortgage interest rate exceeded 5%. At present, there is no better investment channel for his deposits to make the annualized interest rate higher than the mortgage interest rate.

  According to the monitoring data of the Shell Research Institute in July 2022, the interest rate of the mainstream first home loan in 103 key cities has dropped to 4.35%, and the second home loan interest rate is 5.07%. Therefore, Zhang Qiu believes that the home loan interest rate he holds is too high.

  32-year-old Wang Lele is also one of the early loan repayers. She works in the media industry in Guangzhou and recently repaid a mortgage of 500,000 yuan early and shortened the repayment period.

Regarding the reason for the early repayment of the loan, Wang Lele told reporters that the deposit in hand was not enough to buy a down payment for a second home, but other financing channels could not beat the mortgage interest rate. Retire early and enjoy life.

  On the app "Xiaohongshu", which accounts for more than 70% of "post-90s" users, early loan repayment is a hot topic. Many people share their ideas, strategies and calculation methods for early loan repayment.

In a shared article titled "Pay off your mortgage early, don't hesitate for a moment", the author said that the bank's current annualized rate of return for 1-3 years is only about 3%, and the interest rate for large deposits is less than 5%. The investment method can ensure a constant annual return rate of 5% for 30 years.

  Wang Ling, a white-collar worker in Shanghai who just turned 30 this year, told Yicai that he wanted to buy a new house for about 10 million yuan last year with a down payment of 30%, but now he has changed his mind and wants to borrow some money from his parents. , increase the down payment to about 60%.

"My risk appetite suddenly changed. It was not only influenced by my friends - I saw that some people had suffered layoffs and salary cuts, but it was also influenced by information on the Internet." Wang Ling said that his mother was very puzzled. , asked him: "Didn't you young people like to increase leverage the most before?" Wang Ling explained that the general environment has changed, and now you will feel at ease with less loans.

  "Many people on the Internet now say that the most cost-effective 'investment' in the past two years is to repay the mortgage in advance." Wang Ling said.

  At the beginning of this month, Bank of Communications suddenly issued an announcement on the adjustment of the early repayment compensation fee for personal mortgage loans, announcing that from November 1, 2022, the early repayment compensation will be charged at a rate of 1% of the early repayment principal. However, due to pressure from public opinion, the Bank of Communications urgently withdrew the announcement the next day.

  Zhang Tao and Lu Siyuan of the Financial Market Department of China Construction Bank recently wrote in an article that with the cyclical ups and downs of economic operation, the expectations of various economic entities will change accordingly. "Supply shocks" are superimposed and have a continuous impact on economic operation. If residents' expectations are weakened and further solidified into trend changes, residents will inevitably maintain their own welfare maximization by repaying debts in advance and not taking new debts. , which will inevitably bring about a series of chain reactions.

  Reversing expectations is critical

  When home buyers are doing everything possible to reduce leverage, many cities hope that residents can add leverage.

  Following the official announcement in the first half of the year to reduce the down payment for the first home to 20%, recently, a wave of down payment for the second home has hit, and many strong second-tier cities such as Nanjing, Suzhou, Wuxi, Jinan announced a reduction in the down payment ratio for the second home.

  First, on August 12, Nanjing announced a reduction in the down payment ratio of commercial personal housing loans. For those who have unpaid mortgages, the down payment will be reduced from 80% to 60% when purchasing a second home; From the original 50% to 30%.

Shortly thereafter, Suzhou and Wuxi also announced similar new regulations. As long as home buyers settle the loan, the down payment for a second home can be as low as 30%.

  Jinan announced that starting from August 15, the down payment ratio of second-home provident fund loans will be reduced to 40%.

  In the past, some first-tier cities and strong second-tier cities had an 80% down payment threshold for second homes, which made home buyers "can't afford to climb high".

Take Nanjing, for example, when the property market and land market were hot in 2016, Nanjing announced "recognizing the house and renewing the loan", and the down payment for a second home was up to 80%. In April this year, the main city of Nanjing began to relax the regulation of the property market, and the down payment ratio for a second home has now changed from 80% to 50%. 50% into 30%, but it is difficult to pull the residents to increase leverage.

  According to the "Research Report on National Residents' Home Purchase Leverage in the Second Quarter of 2022" recently released by the E-House Research Institute, in the tide of down payment reductions in various places, the national home purchase leverage ratio has continued to decline. new low.

This also means that the willingness of residents to adopt a low down payment and increase leverage strategy when buying a house is very low.

  E-House Research Institute stated in the report that the algorithm for the indicator of “national household purchase leverage ratio” is as follows: the ratio of the newly increased personal housing loan balance to the total transaction volume of first- and second-hand housing in the country, and the ratio of 9% of provident fund loans to the national residential housing market. The historical average of the proportion of the total transaction volume is summed up to estimate the national household purchase leverage ratio.

  In the fourth quarter of 2016, the national household purchase leverage ratio reached an all-time high of 44.6%, and now it has dropped by half compared to the highest point.

According to an analysis by E-House Research Institute, the reason for the decline in the leverage ratio of home purchases among residents in the second quarter was that the increase in the balance of personal housing loans fell too fast, and the decline exceeded the total transaction volume of first- and second-hand houses nationwide.

The national residential transaction volume is likely to recover moderately in the third quarter, and the new personal housing loan balance is likely to recover slightly in the second half of the year, but the national household purchase leverage ratio will continue to decline in the second half of the year, and the decline will slow down.

  According to data released by the central bank at the end of July, the balance of personal housing loans in the second quarter of this year was 38.86 trillion yuan, an increase of only 6.2% year-on-year, and the growth rate hit a new low in 13 years.

  Why did the personal housing loan balance drop sharply?

There are many reasons.

Since the second half of last year, the continuous explosion of real estate enterprises and the indifference of the real estate market have led to the shrinkage of the new balance of personal housing loans.

On the other hand, the E-House Research Institute found that according to recent changes in residents’ deposit and loan data, residents have begun to adjust their balance sheets by proactively reducing debt by repaying debts in advance and not borrowing new debts, which accounts for the largest proportion of residents’ leverage. One piece is a home loan.

  Zhang Tao and Lu Siyuan believe that overcoming the deep adjustment of the real estate market and the associated systemic risks largely depends on whether our labor productivity can be continuously and effectively improved.

Whether it is due to the demand that there should be no loss in improving economic efficiency, or the need to hedge the impact of changes in resource endowments on the economy, it is imperative to reverse the weakening expectations of residents as soon as possible.

  Yan Yuejin, research director of the Think Tank Center of E-House Research Institute, said that the medium and long-term loan data in July has been released and has received widespread attention. In July, the new medium and long-term loans to residents were 148.6 billion yuan, a decrease of 64% month-on-month and a year-on-year decrease of 63%. , The phenomenon of early loan repayment has occurred in the real estate field, which requires vigilance, and the mortgage lending policy in various places may be further relaxed.

  (At the request of the interviewee, Zhang Qiu, Wang Lele and Wang Ling are pseudonyms)