Following Zhongfu Industrial, Lutianhua and other companies, on the evening of August 16, a number of listed companies, including Tianyuan Co., Ltd., Hongda Co., Ltd., etc., disclosed that they were affected by Sichuan Province's "let electricity to the people" measures, including The production capacity of various commodities including nonferrous metals and chemicals is limited.
A reporter from Securities Times · e company learned that under the expectation of supply reduction, titanium dioxide companies shouted in the weak market on the 16th, and the high price of industrial silicon was also strongly supported.
On August 16, Xin Baoan, chairman and party secretary of State Grid Corporation of China, and Zhang Zhigang, general manager and deputy secretary of the party group, had a video connection with grassroots units at the company's headquarters to investigate and guide the work of ensuring power supply.
Xin Baoan emphasized to ensure the safe operation of the power grid.
Scientifically arrange the operation mode, strengthen the monitoring of power grid operation, adhere to the company-wide "one game of chess", give full play to the role of large power grid resource allocation, organize cross-regional and cross-province mutual assistance, and maximize support for power supply in Sichuan and Chongqing.
The impact of power cuts in Sichuan continues to ferment
The abnormally high temperature across the country continues. Since August, many provinces and cities have successively introduced power curtailment policies, which have had an impact on industrial power consumption.
Since the evening of August 14, listed companies have successively disclosed that they have been affected by the power curtailment measures, and the production capacity of various industrial products has been limited.
On the evening of August 16, Tianyuan Co., Ltd. announced that some of the production capacity of the company's subsidiaries in Sichuan will be temporarily suspended for one week from August 15, 2022 to August 20, 24:00, as required.
Affected by this power curtailment and production reduction, it is expected that the net profit will be reduced by about 30 million yuan.
On the evening of the 16th, Hongda Co., Ltd. also announced that the company's headquarters non-ferrous production base and phosphorus chemical production base (located in Shifang City, Deyang City, Sichuan Province), and its holding subsidiary Sichuan Mianzhu Chuanrun Chemical Co., Ltd. (located in Mianzhu City, Deyang City, Sichuan Province) opened on the 8th. Production will be temporarily suspended from August 15th, and it is expected to stop production until 24:00 on August 20th (subject to the notification of relevant departments).
Hongda Co., Ltd. said that this temporary shutdown is expected to reduce the output of zinc alloys by about 10,000 tons, the output of phosphorus chemical products by about 4,000 tons, and the output of synthetic ammonia by 2,000 tons.
At present, the company's related product inventory is relatively sufficient, and the temporary suspension of production due to the impact of this power restriction policy will not have a significant adverse impact on the company's operating performance.
In addition, BOE A, Xuguang Electronics, Sichuan Jinding, Tianao Electronics, and Wanxun Automatic Control also announced the impact of power cuts that night.
Among them, BOE A has a total of four semiconductor display production lines in Chengdu and Mianyang, Sichuan Province, including a 4.5th generation TFT-LCD production line, a 8.6th generation TFT-LCD production line and two 6th generation flexible AMOLED production lines.
The company said that during this power cut, it will actively cooperate with the people's livelihood guarantee policy, minimize the electricity load, flexibly arrange the operation of the production line, and fully guarantee the delivery of customers' products.
During this period, the company will carry out routine equipment maintenance for the TFT-LCD production line in a timely manner.
It is assessed that this power cut will not have a material adverse impact on the company's overall operating results.
Sichuan Jinding's wholly-owned subsidiaries Sichuan Jindingshun Mining Industry Co., Ltd., Sichuan Shuncai Building Materials Co., Ltd., and Sichuan Shuncai Xingshu Calcium Industry Co., Ltd. have all stopped production on August 14.
Since August 9, the production and operation of the three subsidiaries mentioned above have been affected by the power curtailment policy. It is estimated that by Aug. 20, the power curtailment and production shutdown will reduce the output of Sichuan Jinding limestone by about 280,000 tons and the output of calcium oxide by about 200,000 tons. 10,000 tons, and it is expected to affect the net profit by about 4.49 million yuan.
And Xuguang Electronics disclosed that the output is expected to decrease by 48,000 pieces, the output value will decrease by 31.5 million yuan, and the net profit is expected to decrease by about 5 million yuan.
However, Tianao Electronics also said that except for the temporary shutdown of the production line in Tianao Industrial Park, the company is in normal production.
Wanxun Automation also stated that in addition to some production lines of its wholly-owned subsidiary Chengdu Anxin Electronics Co., Ltd. in Chengdu and its wholly-owned subsidiary Chengdu Tenda Gas Equipment Co., Ltd., other production bases of the company (Cister Control Equipment (Tianjin) Co., Ltd. and Shenzhen Wanxun Automation Co., Ltd. Jiangyin Branch) are in normal production.
The company currently has sufficient stock, and the temporary suspension of production due to the impact of power supply will not have a material adverse impact on the company's operating results.
On the same day, Sichuan Shuangma also stated on the interactive platform that the recent temporary power cut and production suspension will not have a significant adverse impact on the company's production and operation in the short term.
The company will actively prepare for the resumption of production by adjusting the maintenance plan to reduce the impact on the company.
On August 16, the National Development and Reform Commission stated at a press conference on the same day that the next step will be to give full play to the role of the inter-ministerial coordination mechanism for coal, electricity, oil and gas transportation, further consolidate the main responsibility of local and enterprise energy supply, and accelerate the release of advanced coal production capacity. Efforts will be made to perform well in the performance of medium and long-term thermal coal contracts to ensure the security of energy and power supply.
Titanium dioxide rises again under the influence of power cuts
The impact of power curtailment has already appeared on the industrial side.
Although the domestic titanium dioxide market price has continued to be sluggish in recent months, and the industry has experienced several rounds of previous increases, there are obvious signs of price decline, but under the influence of recent power cuts in some domestic provinces and cities, the market's bullish sentiment has recovered again.
On August 16, Sichuan Panzhihua Titanium Sea Technology Co., Ltd. issued a price adjustment letter stating that in view of the current high production cost of titanium dioxide and the current international titanium dioxide market conditions, it has decided to increase domestic customers of rutile titanium dioxide by 500 yuan/ton. International customers are raised by 80 US dollars / ton; domestic customers of anatase titanium dioxide are raised by 500 yuan / ton, and international customers are raised by 80 US dollars / ton.
"The titanium dioxide market has been sluggish for several months, and the price has been falling all the way. Under this trend of buying up and not buying down, terminal demand has become more and more cautious, and there are many operations to split the purchase plan volume in a single month + increase the frequency of purchases. .In August, the domestic and foreign trade sentiment in the titanium dioxide price market was not enthusiastic, but the overall order reception was slightly better than in July. From the middle to the middle, the price market basically maintained a stable state after the price reduction. Although there were market rumors before that Rumors of a large manufacturer lowering prices again, but Sichuan Provincial Department of Economy and Information Technology, State Grid Sichuan Electric Power Company issued an emergency notice again on August 14, requesting that from 00:00 on August 15, 2022 to 24 on August 20 :00 In 19 cities (prefectures) in the whole province (except Panzhihua and Liangshan), the scope of industrial enterprises to let electricity to the people is expanded, which has the risk of lower operating rate for the affected titanium dioxide producers."
Yang Xun, an analyst in the titanium titanium industry, told a reporter from Securities Times e company that the price of titanium dioxide continued to weaken in the early stage, the price of the main raw material sulfuric acid continued to be sluggish, and the demand for iron ore was relatively weak, and the actual spot quantity of titanium ore was not sufficient. Prices from major miners were firm.
From the perspective of raw materials, it is not obvious that the market continues to be weak, and the possibility of a large price adjustment of titanium dioxide is not high.
In addition, the terminal supply of some manufacturers is currently tightening. Today (August 16) Panzhihua Titanium Sea Technology announced an increase of 500 yuan / ton, and the trading market has been shouting to stop the decline.
At present, the market atmosphere is more complicated, and the long and short atmosphere is relatively anxious. At present, the supply side is still discussing one by one.
Industrial silicon prices underpinned by supply cuts
As one of the important producers of industrial silicon (also known as "metal silicon") in Sichuan, under the influence of power cuts, the expectation of a reduction in the supply side of the industry is also rapidly heating up.
According to Yu Qihong, an industrial silicon analyst at Mysteel, the monthly production capacity of industrial silicon in Sichuan Province reaches 92,250 tons, accounting for 15.1% of the country.
The July output was 56,000 tons, down 4.52% from June.
In addition to Sichuan, Xinjiang, which is the first of the three major production areas, has also been affected by the epidemic recently. At present, 20 furnaces have been shut down in Yili and Shihezi areas. A leading enterprise has stopped half of production. Prices rose further.
According to the investigation of the Mysteel industrial silicon team, since August 14, metro alloys and industrial silicon smelting enterprises in the main industrial silicon producing areas, such as Aba Prefecture, Leshan City, and Ya'an City, have shut down production in large areas or maintained production at different peaks. The shutdown rate of regional silicon factories from 9:00 am to 10:00 pm has reached 90%-100%.
According to Su Hongye, an analyst at the business agency, the operating rate of some silicon factories in Leshan, Aba and Ya'an in Sichuan has dropped to about 20%.
The lack of power supply will not have a short-term impact on industrial silicon capacity.
Since the beginning of July, Sichuan Province has implemented a large reduction in the power load of the smelting industry. Since August 1, the subway alloy and industrial silicon smelting enterprises in Aba Prefecture, Leshan City, Liangshan Prefecture, and Dazhou City in Sichuan Province have experienced pressure loads and industrial silicon smelting enterprises again. The phenomenon of shutdown (preliminary statistics about 50%) has driven the continuous increase in the sales price of production enterprises.
According to the monitoring of the business agency, as of August 12, the average domestic market price of 441# silicon metal was 19,150 yuan / ton, up 6.15% from the previous week.
Mysteel data shows that on August 15, the price of 553# without oxygen in Sichuan was about 18800-20000 yuan/ton, an increase of 700 yuan/ton from July, an increase of 3.8%, and the price of 421# was 19800-20000 yuan/ton, a month-on-month increase. Monthly increase of 1,500 yuan / ton, or 9.3%.
Yu Qihong believes that in addition to the good trend of the photovoltaic sector, the aluminum alloy and organosilicon side of the downstream of industrial silicon are relatively flat, and the procurement is mainly based on rigid demand. However, due to the recent market sentiment, the inquiries have increased, the activity has improved significantly, and the high-priced transactions have increased slightly. Various cost supports and supply shortages are expected to have strong support for silicon prices.
Su Hongye believes that at the beginning of this week, due to the tight hydropower supply in Sichuan, the confidence in the silicon metal market has been boosted, downstream inquiries have increased, and market transactions have rebounded. The epidemic in Xinjiang has disrupted the production of silicon metal enterprises, and the market has pessimistic expectations on the supply side, promoting silicon factories. Raise the price.
In the case of limited supply in the short term, the price of silicon metal continued to rise.
In addition to silicon, the supply reduction in the cobalt market is also expected to heat up.
Mysteel analyst Zhao Chao believes that in view of the current severe power supply situation, power cuts will undoubtedly have a certain impact on cobalt production enterprises, and the operating rate of some alloy enterprises in Sichuan and Zhejiang will also be affected, or it may suppress upstream demand.
According to statistics, this round of power cuts may lead to a reduction of 1,200 tons of cobalt salts in the cobalt industry in August, accounting for 5.22% of the original production schedule in August.
At present, Sichuan, Zhejiang, and Hubei have a greater impact, while other regions have relatively less impact.
Zhao Chao believes that if the weather continues to be hot in the future, localities will not rule out the possibility of further power cuts.
With the resurgence of the market purchase and storage turmoil, and with the help of external disks, cobalt prices ushered in a wave of rebound, driving the focus of transactions to rise.
However, the digital market demand is still clearly restrained, and whether the raw material inventory and supply in the field are empty or not will become an obstacle to the continued upward trend of cobalt salts.