Shutdowns, short-time work, delivery bottlenecks: German industry is warning of the devastating consequences for the economy in view of the record low water levels on the Rhine, some of which are zero.

"The persistent dry period and the low water threaten the security of supply for industry," said the deputy general manager of the Federation of German Industries (BDI), Holger Loesch, on Tuesday.

“Companies are preparing for the worst.

The already tense economic situation in the companies is getting worse.”

In Emmerich near the border with the Netherlands, a water level of zero centimeters was measured for the first time on Tuesday, said the spokesman for the Waterways and Shipping Office, Christian Hellbach.

It was only on Monday that the previous record low of October 2018 was undercut by three centimeters.

Fairway is getting narrower

However, the water level is not synonymous with the fairway depth, which is decisive for shipping.

This was recently just under two meters in Emmerich.

"Ships can continue to operate," said Hellbach.

"But you have to adjust your load accordingly." This is confirmed by the shipping cooperative DTG with more than 100 connected cargo ships on the Rhine.

"We can still drive - on the entire Rhine, even Emmerich can be passed," said DTG authorized signatory Tobias Engels.

"However, the freight ships can currently take less than a third of their normal loading volume." In some cases, three times the number of transports is necessary to bring the same volume to the customer.

At least a little relaxation is in sight.

"Coming from the Upper Rhine, a small wave is announced, which will lead to the water levels rising slightly on the Middle Rhine," said the Waterways and Shipping Office after the recent rains that were also announced for the rest of the week.

"This will also affect the levels on the Lower Rhine in the next few days."

According to the BDI, inland vessels can currently only operate with minimal utilization - "if at all", as BDI expert Loesch said.

Switching to rail and road is difficult because of the bottlenecks on the rails, the corona pandemic and the lack of drivers.

"It is only a matter of time before plants in the chemical or steel industry are shut down, mineral oils and building materials do not reach their destination or large-volume and heavy transports can no longer be carried out," said Loesch.

Delivery bottlenecks, production cutbacks or even standstills and short-time work would be the result.

The low water could further exacerbate the emergency in the energy supply.

According to the BDI, the political plans to temporarily rely more heavily on coal in view of the gas crisis would be thwarted by massive transport bottlenecks.

The Rhine is an important shipping route for commodities such as grain, chemicals, minerals, coal and oil products such as heating oil.

The low water, which has been going on for weeks, is already affecting the performance of two German coal-fired power plants.

The chemical company BASF had stated that it could not rule out production cuts if the low water disrupted logistics.

recession more likely

According to economists, the problems on the Rhine make a recession even more likely.

"In any case, we expect that the German economy will fall into a slight recession from the third quarter and that growth in 2022 should only be 1.2 percent," said Stefan Schneider, Chief Economist for Germany at Deutsche Bank.

"If water levels continue to fall, growth could also fall to just below 1 percent." Higher transport costs are also likely to increase inflationary pressures.