China News Agency, Beijing, August 15th: China's property market showed a downward trend in July, and second-tier cities have strong resilience
China News Agency reporter Pang Wuji
China's property market recovery suffered setbacks in July.
After a slight recovery in May and June, the property market once again entered a “cooling channel” in July: the growth rate of real estate development investment in the first seven months expanded to 6.4%, and the cumulative year-on-year decline in the sales area and sales of commercial housing still exceeded 20%.
The momentum for home price repairs has also weakened.
According to the housing price data of 70 large and medium-sized cities released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China on the same day, the number of cities where the prices of new and second-hand housing fell month-on-month increased, and the drop in housing prices expanded month-on-month.
However, the real estate market in some first- and second-tier cities has also shown resilience and still maintains a recovery momentum.
The property market is still bottoming out in July
According to official data, in July, among the 70 large and medium-sized cities, the prices of new houses in 40 cities fell month-on-month, and the prices of second-hand houses in 51 cities fell month-on-month, an increase of 2 and 3 respectively from the previous month.
Regarding the reasons for the weakening of housing prices in July, Li Yujia, chief researcher of the Housing Policy Research Center of the Guangdong Provincial Urban Planning Institute, analyzed that the epidemic recurred in some cities in July, which affected offline viewing and transactions.
Affected by the sprinting half-year performance of real estate companies, there were more launches in May-June, while July was a traditional off-season, with a decline in the supply of new houses and a decrease in sales.
In addition, the "loan suspension crisis" occurred in some cities, reducing the market's confidence in off-plan housing.
Xu Xiaole, chief market analyst at Shell Research Institute, also believes that the weakening of market expectations is the reason for the lack of motivation for housing price repair.
He pointed out that under the background of repeated epidemics in some areas and increasing downward pressure on the economy, residents' willingness to consume is insufficient.
Under the combined influence of multiple factors, the real estate market has declined, and the momentum of housing price repair has weakened.
Fu Linghui, spokesperson of the National Bureau of Statistics and director of the National Economic Comprehensive Statistics Department, also said that in general, the real estate market is showing a downward trend, and it is currently in a bottom-building stage.
Second-tier cities show resilience
Although the property market is still bottoming out, some first-tier and strong second-tier cities are the first to pick up.
In July, the price increase of new and second-hand housing in Chengdu ranked first among the 70 cities for many consecutive months, with an increase of 1% and 1.3% respectively.
Chen Xiao, a senior analyst at Zhuge Housing Data Research Center, analyzed that Chengdu issued two new property market policies in May, which relaxed regulatory funding requirements for developers, and that the purchased or newly purchased houses in suburban counties were not included in family housing when purchasing a house in the central city. The total number of units and other regulations have increased the local housing demand.
In addition, compared with other megacities, the housing prices in Chengdu are relatively low, so there is room for price increases after the policy is relaxed this year.
It is worth noting that the cities that saw a steady recovery in the property market in July were mainly second-tier cities.
Most of them have good economic fundamentals, and the potential for housing demand is still there.
In July, in the new housing market, housing prices in Nanchang, Yangzhou, Hangzhou, and Hefei rose by 0.8%, 0.8%, 0.7%, and 0.7% month-on-month, respectively, followed by new housing growth in cities such as Xi'an, Beijing, and Shanghai.
In the second-hand housing market, cities such as Yantai, Shanghai, Hefei, Nanchong, Nanchang and other cities have seen the biggest month-on-month increase in housing prices.
Among them, Shanghai's new houses and second-hand houses have the highest growth rates. Although they were temporarily stagnant due to the impact of the epidemic in the early stage, the overall resilience was strong, and the market recovered rapidly after the epidemic.
Many cities in the Yangtze River Delta, such as Hefei, Hangzhou, and Yangzhou, were among the top gainers.
The property market is expected to gradually stabilize
Looking ahead, Fu Linghui believes that with the continuous improvement of the long-term mechanism of the real estate market and the gradual effect of city-specific policies, the real estate market is expected to gradually stabilize.
Chen Wenjing, market research director of the Index Division of China Index Research Institute, pointed out that recently Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou have fine-tuned relevant policies, Suzhou and Wuxi have reduced the down payment ratio, and Langfang has lifted purchase restrictions and sales restrictions. Measures related to "guaranteing and handing over buildings" in various places are also expected to be implemented more quickly.
On August 15, the central bank's medium-term lending facility (MLF) operation and open market reverse repurchase operation bidding rates both fell by 10 basis points.
The industry believes that this may bring a certain boost to the expectations of the real estate market.
However, after in-depth adjustments since the middle of last year, Feng Jun, president of the China Real Estate Association, believes that the real estate industry "has bid farewell to the years of high growth."
Changes in the main indicators of the entire industry have entered a stable channel, and it is unlikely to reproduce the previous high growth in the next 20 years.
(Finish)