On August 14, the Central Meteorological Observatory continued to issue a high temperature red warning. Many provinces in my country ushered in continuous high temperature weather, and the highest temperature in some areas could reach above 40°C.
The continued high temperature this summer has caused electricity consumption in various places to soar, continuously setting new records for the highest electricity load.
Ensuring power supply is one of the keys to stabilizing the economy and promoting employment. my country has been taking various measures to ensure stable power supply.
Meanwhile, virtual power plants based on big data attributes have attracted social attention.
To meet the peak load of 5% as an example, compared with the investment of hundreds of billions of yuan in thermal power plants, virtual power plants are only 1/8-1/7.
However, as my country has not yet established a unified standard for virtual power plant transaction operation rules, new energy coordinated control strategies and scheduling algorithms, and its profit model is still in the exploratory period, how to further promote and apply it is still a realistic topic.
Electricity consumption continues to rise
According to statistics from the China Meteorological Administration, since the fall this year, the daily maximum temperature of 141 national weather stations across the country has reached above 40°C.
On August 14, the Jiangsu Provincial Meteorological Observatory issued a road surface temperature forecast. The maximum surface temperature will reach 72°C, and the tires are at risk of puncture.
Due to the continuous high temperature, fine and hot weather, drought conditions have occurred in the southern region.
According to Xinhua News Agency, since mid-June of this year, the precipitation in the Yangtze River Basin has changed from more to less, and in July it was more than 30% less, especially the lower reaches of the Yangtze River and the Poyang Lake water system, which is about 50% less, which is the lowest in the same period in the past decade. .
Affected by this, the water level in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River was significantly lower than the same period in history.
As of 8:00 on August 11, the water level of the main stream in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and the two lakes' export control stations were 5-6 meters lower than the same period of the previous year.
On August 11, the National Flood Control and Drought Relief Headquarters decided to launch a four-level emergency response to drought in six provinces, including Sichuan, Chongqing, Hubei, Hunan, Jiangxi, and Anhui.
The drought and lack of rain will affect the "output" of hydropower.
The peak of electricity demand is superimposed by the limited hydropower and electricity, and the power gap is enlarged, and the power production is further under pressure.
In hot weather, electricity consumption climbs.
According to the electricity consumption data of the whole society from January to July released by the National Energy Administration, from January to July, the total electricity consumption of the whole society was 4,930.3 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 3.4%.
Among them, in July, the electricity consumption of the whole society was 832.4 billion kWh, an increase of 6.3% year-on-year: in terms of industries, the electricity consumption of the primary industry was 12.1 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 14.3%; the electricity consumption of the secondary industry was 513.2 billion kWh , down 0.1% year-on-year; the tertiary industry’s electricity consumption was 159.1 billion kWh, an increase of 11.5% year-on-year; urban and rural residents’ domestic electricity consumption was 148 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 26.8%.
Combination boxing power supply
In terms of measures to ensure power supply, State Grid this year mainly guarantees grid security and stable power supply by calling for power saving, timely repair of front-line power facilities and orderly power consumption.
Orderly electricity consumption refers to staggering the electricity consumption of different users during the peak period of electricity consumption, and controlling part of the electricity demand through administrative measures, economic means, technical methods, etc. sequence.
If the production of the enterprise is changed from daytime to nighttime, it can not only effectively reduce the load during the peak period of electricity consumption, but also will not affect the output of the enterprise.
At the same time, enterprises can also get a subsidy from the power supply company.
It is worth noting that my country has also taken corresponding measures on the power production side to ensure the stable supply of firepower.
There are five main sources of electricity in my country: thermal power, hydropower, nuclear power, wind power, and solar power. Thermal power has always been the main power generation in my country.
According to the data of the Guanyan Report Network, in 2020, among all kinds of power generation in my country, thermal power generation accounts for the highest proportion, accounting for 71.19%, followed by hydropower generation, accounting for 16.37%.
In order to ensure the timely supply of thermal power, the National Development and Reform Commission issued a number of policies this year to crack down on the behavior of driving up coal prices in disguised form, and to control coal prices within a reasonable space.
The market price changes of important means of production in the circulation field in early August 2022 released by the National Bureau of Statistics on August 14 showed that all kinds of coal prices were down in early August. Among them, the ton price of anthracite, one of the thermal coals that can be used for power generation 1466.9 yuan, down 121.7 yuan or 7.7% from the previous price.
At the same time, the expansion of my country's imports of coal and lignite has also curbed the rise in domestic coal prices this year to a certain extent, avoiding the recurrence of the "coal super crazy" situation in 2021.
According to import data from the General Administration of Customs of China, my country imported 2,352.3 tons of coal and lignite in July, an increase of 454.1 tons from June.
In addition, due to the large amount of green energy resources such as wind energy and photovoltaics, my country is also accelerating the promotion of new energy power generation.
Xin Baoan, chairman and party secretary of State Grid Corporation of China, put forward my country's new energy development goals at the 2022 "Belt and Road" clean energy development forum held on August 12.
He said that with the deepening of the "dual carbon" process, the energy system is undergoing a systematic and fundamental change, and the energy supply structure is being deeply adjusted. It is estimated that by 2030, my country's wind power, solar power and other new energy power generation capacity will be installed The scale will surpass coal power to become the largest power source, and the proportion of new energy power generation is expected to exceed 50% by 2060.
Virtual power plant comes to the fore
"my country's power supply is generally in a stable range, and there will not be much change in the short term. In the face of the sudden increase in power loads such as air conditioners under continuous high temperature weather, it is particularly critical to strengthen power dispatching." Xiamen University China Energy Policy Research Lin Boqiang, president of the institute, said that the construction of virtual power plants based on big data was highlighted this year.
What is a virtual power plant?
Wu Qi, executive director of the Wuxi Digital Economy Research Institute, told the Beijing Business Daily reporter that a virtual power plant is actually a power supply coordination management system based on big data to participate in power grid operation and power market, and it appears as a controllable power supply to the outside world.
Taking hydropower stations as an example, in previous years, during the power generation process, due to the lack of water inflow data from upstream power stations, it was impossible to adjust the power generation load in time and formulate a clear power generation plan.
After the hydropower station is connected to the virtual power plant platform, the staff can keep abreast of the upstream inbound and outbound flow and power generation every morning, realizing the sharing of upstream and downstream hydrological and power generation data.
"The big data attributes of virtual power plants can promote the consumption of new energy power generation and reduce the production cost of enterprises on the production side, and can precisely control electricity consumption on the demand side to reduce the electricity load of enterprises." Lin Boqiang added.
Thanks to the outstanding dispatching advantages, the construction of virtual power plants is gradually accelerating.
According to industry insiders, the current source-load aggregation interactive response platform with virtual power plant functions has been put into operation in Hunan Province, covering more than 3,300 hydropower stations with an installed capacity of 7.3 million kilowatts.
In China, State Grid has already started operation of virtual power plant projects, and Zhejiang, Shanghai and other places are also actively exploring the implementation of related projects.
Taking Zhejiang as an example, on June 30, during the peak load period in the afternoon, the smart virtual power plant platform independently developed by Zhejiang Power Grid was officially put into commercial operation.
Wenzhou Lucheng Yintai Charging Station, after receiving the regulation requirements of the smart virtual power plant platform, achieved the regulation target of 200 kilowatts by precisely regulating the charging load.
In the middle of this year, various provincial policies were introduced intensively. Zhejiang, Shenzhen, Shanghai and other major power-consuming provinces and cities accelerated the participation of virtual power plants in power grid regulation.
On June 30, 2022, the smart virtual power plant platform of State Grid Zhejiang Comprehensive Energy Company was launched; on June 13, 2022, the Shenzhen Municipal Development and Reform Commission issued the "Shenzhen Virtual Power Plant Landing Work Plan (2022-2025)".
Specifically in Beijing, on July 22, 2022, the "Beijing Electric Power Development Plan during the 14th Five-Year Plan Period" issued by the Beijing Municipal Commission of Urban Management included the construction of virtual power plants in the electric power development plan for the first time.
Is it difficult to promote
The market prospect of the virtual power plant, which only became popular this year, is the focus of the industry.
According to the calculation of the State Grid, through thermal power plants to achieve peak shaving and valley filling of the power system, 5% of the peak load needs to be invested 400 billion yuan; while through virtual power plants, only 50 billion to 60 billion yuan is invested in construction, operation, incentives and other links. , the cost of virtual power plants is only 1/8-1/7 of thermal power plants.
"It is impossible for the country to build a corresponding number of thermal power plants to meet the demand for electricity during peak electricity consumption, and to idle them when electricity consumption is not high. Reasonable scheduling and orderly electricity consumption are the daily measures to solve peak electricity consumption. A reasonable solution, based on big data dispatching, a virtual power plant with relatively lower investment is obviously more cost-effective." Lin Boqiang explained.
Although it has a certain cost performance, the absolute value of the input cost is not low, and the replication and promotion of virtual power plants need to be supported by profitability.
Guohai Securities analyst Yang Yang said in a research report released on July 26 that SPIC Shenzhen Energy, as my country's first virtual power plant dispatching user load to participate in the profitability of the electricity spot market, will have an average kWh income of 0.274 yuan in May 2022. .
According to the estimate of the China Electricity Council, the electricity consumption of the whole society will reach 9.5 trillion kWh in 2025, and the maximum load will reach 1.63 billion kW. Assuming that the adjustable capacity is 5% and the investment cost is 1,000 yuan/kW, it is estimated that by 2025, the virtual The investment scale of the power plant is expected to reach 81.5 billion yuan.
In addition to the market size, the "2022 China Virtual Power Plant Industry Insight Report" (hereinafter referred to as the "Insight Report") released by the 36Kr Research Institute proposes a more complete profit model for virtual power plants. On the one hand, my country's virtual power plants charge services from controllable resources Fees to help them participate in market transactions; on the other hand, demand response compensation fees can also be obtained.
Its analysis believes that at present, my country has not yet established a unified standard in terms of virtual power plant transaction operation rules, resource aggregation scope, new energy coordinated control strategy, scheduling algorithm, etc., and there is a large room for development.
Nonetheless, virtual power plants still need to be built.
The "Insight Report" shows that on the demand side, the relationship between power supply and demand in the east and west of my country is tightening, and the contradiction between the peak and valley of power is becoming increasingly prominent. The peak load of more than 95% of the peak load in various places has accumulated less than 50 hours, and a reliable solution is urgently needed to deal with it.
On the supply side, the increasingly mature technology has led to the continuous reduction of the cost of virtual power plants.
Overall, Lin Boqiang is very optimistic about the prospects of virtual power plants.
"On the supply side, clean energy sources such as wind power and photovoltaics are unstable; on the demand side, manufacturers also need to reduce the load. Virtual power plants that can accurately dispatch power generation have broad prospects. However, how to ensure that virtual power plants can make profits as scheduled after completion. , is a problem that users are more worried about in the promotion process, and it needs to be solved through the reform of electricity price marketization." Lin Boqiang explained.
Beijing Business Daily reporter Tao Feng intern reporter Lu Shanshan / text
Visual China / Figure
· Extended reading ·
Expert prediction
There will be no power cuts this fall
When it comes to electricity consumption, at the turn of summer and autumn in 2021, there have been large-scale "power outages" in several coastal provinces in the northeast, north China and southern my country, which have a certain impact on the economy and people's livelihood, and attracted attention at that time.
Whether there will be a "power outage" situation this autumn still affects everyone's heartstrings, especially enterprise producers are extremely concerned.
In this regard, Lin Boqiang, dean of the China Energy Policy Research Institute of Xiamen University, said that there will be no more power cuts this year.
He explained three reasons for last year's power cuts: "First, at the turn of summer and autumn last year, production was rapidly recovering after the epidemic, and social electricity consumption grew extremely fast, making it difficult for electricity supply to keep up. However, the market-oriented reform of electricity prices had not yet been implemented at that time. The price of coal and electricity was upside down, and enterprises producing electricity were in a state of loss, resulting in a reduction in power supply. Finally, last year, the index assessment of 'double control of energy consumption' was very strict. At the end of the year, in order to 'complete the task by surprise', the total energy consumption can only be reduced by means of 'power cut off'."
Data from the National Energy Administration corroborates Lin Boqiang's view. From January to June 2021, my country's total electricity consumption in the whole society is 3,933.9 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 16.2%.
From January to July 2022, the total electricity consumption of the whole society was 4,930.3 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 3.4%.
The increase in electricity consumption in the first half of 2021 is 12.8 percentage points higher than that in January-July 2022.
"Under the influence of the country's macro-control and various factors, coal prices have returned to a reasonable range this year, and we have gained experience in 'double control of energy consumption' and high power consumption, and the phenomenon of 'power cut off' last year will no longer occur. Lin Boqiang said, "On the whole, my country's power supply is relatively sufficient at present. Even if the power supply is tight, it is only a few days. Except for the particularly fast growth of power demand last year, our supply has not had any problems in the past ten years. There should be no problems in the future.”
However, in the long run, Lin Boqiang believes that in order to solve the problem of future power supply, increasing income and reducing expenditure is the long-term solution.
In fact, my country has never stopped on the road of increasing income and reducing expenditure.
Beijing Business Daily reporter Tao Feng intern reporter Lu Shanshan