China's economy recovers, work harder!

　　China News Service, August 16 (Chief Financial Reporter Li Jinlei) Although the global inflationary pressure is high and difficult, the domestic epidemic situation is scattered in many places, and there are unfavorable factors such as high temperature and rain, but the National Bureau of Statistics said that China's economy is in the 7th. The recovery trend continued in the month.

However, the momentum of economic recovery has slowed down marginally, and further efforts are needed to consolidate the foundation for economic recovery.

Exports are thriving

　　Since July, although there have been sporadic outbreaks in many places, the spread of the epidemic has been effectively controlled on the whole, and a package of economic stabilization policy measures has continued to play a role. In July, the main production and demand indicators were basically stable.

　　Judging from the current month, the added value of industries above designated size, the service industry production index, imports and exports, total retail sales of consumer goods, and fixed asset investment all maintained year-on-year growth in July.

　　In the "troika", exports outperformed.

Data show that

　　The research report of CICC believes that on the whole, the short-term one-time rush effect brought about by the resumption of work and production may have basically dissipated, and the fact that exports exceeded expectations more reflects the competitiveness of China's exports and supports China's export share.

Wharf infographic.

Photo by Qi Zengbei

Prices are generally stable

　　Let’s look at the performance of livelihood indicators such as employment and prices.

　　In terms of employment, the surveyed urban unemployment rate continued to fall.

In July, the national urban surveyed unemployment rate was 5.4%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month.

The surveyed urban unemployment rate in 31 large cities was 5.6 percent, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous month.

　　In terms of prices, the market supply was generally sufficient, and the consumer price maintained a moderate rise.

　　However, the year-on-year increase in CPI in July hit a new high for the year, and the value of "Second Senior Brothers" began to rebound. The

In addition, affected by the continuous high temperature in many places, the price of fresh vegetables rose by 12.9% year-on-year, which was significantly higher than the same period in previous years.

　　Fu Linghui, spokesman of the National Bureau of Statistics and director of the National Economic Comprehensive Statistics Department, judged that despite the recent rapid rise in pork prices, the production capacity of live pigs is generally at a reasonable level. Pork prices are unlikely to rise sharply.

　　Wen Bin, chief economist of China Minsheng Bank, told Zhongxin Finance that on the whole, it is expected that the CPI will rise moderately in the future. controlled within the policy objectives.

Youth employment and consumption still need attention

　　The issue of youth employment needs to be given high priority.

Since the beginning of this year, the employment pressure of young people has been relatively high, and the unemployment rate has continued to rise.

July was the graduation season, with a large number of graduates entering the labor market for jobs, pushing up the youth unemployment rate.

According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in July, the unemployment rate of urban youth aged 16-24 was 19.9 percent, up 0.6 percentage points from the previous month.

　　Fu Linghui believes that the unemployment rate of young people is high. On the one hand, enterprises are affected by the epidemic, production and operation are difficult, and their ability to absorb employment has declined.

In particular, the slow recovery of the tertiary industry, where the employment of young people is relatively high, restricts the employment of young people.

On the other hand, when young people enter the labor market, they tend to prefer more stable jobs. There is a gap between job-hunting expectations and actual job demands, which also affects young people's employment.

　　From the perspective of consumption, in July, affected by factors such as the spread of the epidemic in many places and the slowdown in automobile sales, the growth rate of total retail sales slowed down compared with the previous month.

In July, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 2.7% year-on-year, and the growth rate dropped by 0.4 percentage points from the previous month.

　　As the main force driving economic growth, the recovery of consumption is crucial.

Zhongxin Finance has noticed that many major economic provinces have continued to make efforts to stimulate consumption recently.

Some places have stimulated consumption by issuing consumer coupons, and the effect has gradually emerged.

Consolidating the foundation for economic recovery still needs to be strengthened

　　"But we must also see that due to multiple factors,

" Fu Linghui said.

　　The central bank recently released the report on the implementation of China's monetary policy in the second quarter of 2022, clearly increasing the implementation of a prudent monetary policy, giving full play to the dual functions of monetary policy tools in terms of total volume and structure, proactively responding, boosting confidence, improving cross-cycle adjustment, and taking into account In the short-term and long-term, economic growth and price stability, internal and external balance, and insist on not engaging in "flooding" and not over-issuing currency, so as to provide stronger and higher-quality support for the real economy.

　　Zhong Zhengsheng, chief economist of Ping An Securities, analyzed that the key to China's better coordination of epidemic prevention and control and economic development in the second half of the year is to ensure the operation of the economic cycle and maintain the stability of the supply chain.

This will help maintain China's leading export advantage and improve the income expectations of enterprises and residents, thereby promoting a steady increase in manufacturing investment and a further return to normalization of consumption.

　　On August 15, the medium-term lending facility (MLF) and reverse repurchase policy rates both fell by 10 basis points, beating market expectations.

　　Wen Bin analyzed that this is mainly due to the fact that the foundation for the recovery of the domestic economy still needs to be stabilized, and efforts are made to stabilize the real estate financing chain and speed up the transmission of wide credit.

After the policy rate cut this time, the possibility of a simultaneous reduction of the 1-year and 5-year loan market quoted rates (LPR) this month is not ruled out, but the probability of asymmetrical reduction of LPRs with a maturity of more than 5 years is greater.

(Finish)