GDP = gross domestic product from April to June will be announced on the 15th.
Just before this period, in March, the key measures to prevent the spread of the disease were lifted, and according to private sector forecasts, the average real growth rate was +2% on an annual basis, as consumption of services such as eating out and lodging was on a recovery trend. It is forecast for the second half.
The GDP from April to June this year will be announced by the Cabinet Office as a preliminary figure at 8:50 am on the 15th.
The average forecast of 34 private economists compiled by the Japan Center for Economic Research, a public interest incorporated association, shows that the real growth rate compared to the previous three months is an annualized increase of 2.74%.
If it actually becomes positive, it will be the first time in two terms.
Of these, the average forecast for "private consumption" increased by 1.27% compared to the previous three months.
With the lifting of key measures to prevent the spread of the virus, the number of people going out has increased, and many believe that personal consumption is recovering, centered on consumption of services such as dining out and lodging.
In addition, "corporate capital investment" is expected to increase by 1.13% on average, as corporate software investment to promote digitalization is firm.
On the other hand, "exports" are expected to decline by an average of 0.29% due to the supply chain disruption caused by strict restrictions on going out to prevent infectious diseases in Shanghai, China.
The key to this year's GDP is the extent to which personal consumption has recovered, centered on eating out and travel, which have been hit hard by the spread of the novel coronavirus.