Securities Times reporter Jiang Dan

　　As of July this year, my country's total import and export value has been growing for 26 consecutive months, and the scale of trade has hit the highest level in history.

Exports in July increased by 23.9% year-on-year, and the trade surplus reached 682.69 billion yuan. The monthly export growth rate and trade balance exceeded market expectations again.

How can my country's foreign trade maintain sufficient development resilience?

What are the new features of the foreign trade structure in the first half of the year?

Will the booming economy continue in the future?

With these questions in mind, the Securities Times reporter interviewed a number of experts, scholars and market participants.

　　under the influence of multiple factors

　　Foreign trade performance exceeds expectations

　　At the end of last year, the State Council made a series of deployment arrangements around the cross-cycle adjustment of foreign trade, and relevant departments also continued to make efforts to improve the level of trade facilitation and promote the development of new forms of foreign trade, so as to keep the operation of foreign trade within a reasonable range.

　　As of July, my country's import and export handed in an answer sheet that exceeded expectations.

According to customs statistics, in the first seven months, my country's total import and export value was 23.6 trillion yuan, an increase of 10.4% over the same period last year.

In July, the total value of imports and exports was 3.81 trillion yuan, an increase of 16.6%.

Among them, the export was 2.25 trillion yuan, an increase of 23.9%; the import was 1.56 trillion yuan, an increase of 7.4%; the trade surplus was 682.69 billion yuan, an increase of 90.9%.

This was achieved on the basis of last year's high base, especially considering that in the second quarter, the domestic and foreign trade areas were severely impacted by the repeated epidemics, and the foreign trade performance exceeded expectations.

　　Zhang Jianping, director of the Regional Economic Research Center of the Research Institute of the Ministry of Commerce, told the Securities Times reporter that the rapid growth of exports is related to the continued efforts to stabilize foreign trade since the end of last year.

Although my country's foreign trade imports and exports were repeatedly hit by the epidemic in the second quarter, when the epidemic was effectively controlled and the logistics and transportation blockages were quickly cleared, foreign trade quickly recovered.

　　"There is another very important external reason." Zhang Jianping said that the world is currently suffering from the huge impact of inflation and the Ukraine crisis, which supports exports from market demand.

　　Cui Xiaomin, deputy director of the Global Macroeconomic Research Office of the Institute of World Economics and Politics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, told reporters that due to the Ukraine crisis and Western sanctions against Russia, Europe's supply capacity has been significantly weakened, superimposed on the impact of the energy crisis and energy structure transformation, related products such as Metal products, vehicles and their parts, especially electric vehicles, etc., have increased import demand for my country.

In addition, under the background of high inflation overseas, domestic prices are relatively stable, which also supports my country's export competitiveness to a certain extent.

　　my country's foreign trade presents new features

　　Since the beginning of this year, the characteristics of my country's trade structure with different regions and countries have changed.

Zhang Yu, assistant to the director and chief macro analyst of Huachuang Securities Research Institute, told reporters that since 2021, my country's export growth has been more significantly driven by developed economies such as the United States and Europe.

However, with the slowdown of economic growth in the United States and Europe, my country's role in driving exports to developed economies such as the United States and Europe has slowed since the beginning of this year.

　　However, my country's exports to emerging market economies such as ASEAN and India have increased significantly.

　　The structure of my country's export product categories to emerging market countries and countries such as Europe and the United States has also changed.

According to statistics from Huachuang Securities, since the beginning of this year, my country's export structure to the United States has switched to labor-intensive products. The contribution rate of labor-intensive products such as luggage, textile products, shoes, hats and umbrellas to the export growth rate has increased from 16% to about 30%.

In emerging markets, the scale of my country's exports of chemicals, textile raw materials, textile products, and base metal products to ASEAN has increased significantly; the scale of exports of chemicals, plastic and rubber products, base metal products, and mechanical and electrical products to India has increased significantly; the scale of exports of chemicals to Brazil has increased significantly. , mechanical and electrical products, and the scale of textile raw materials increased significantly.

　　"The reason for the strong exports to emerging economies is that the recovery of industrial production in emerging economies has brought about stronger demand." Zhang Yu said that as of May, India's industrial production index has accelerated significantly, and since 2022, Vietnam's industrial production has shaken off the trend of large fluctuations in 2021. , stronger than the historical average growth rate.

Although the increase in the share of emerging economies has also formed a certain substitution effect on my country's exports, the improvement in demand in these economies has also boosted domestic and foreign demand.

From the end result, emerging economies have become a new source of export resilience to relay demand from Europe and the United States.

　　Cui Xiaomin analyzed that the changes in the structure of trade products between my country and different trading partners are affected by the economic prosperity of various countries in the short term and external sudden shocks.

On the one hand, the strategic competition between China and the United States has become increasingly protracted and complicated, and non-economic factors have increased the interference of Sino-US economic and trade relations, especially in the economic and trade relations of high-tech products.

On the other hand, the import share of emerging and developing economies such as ASEAN, India, Brazil and South Africa from my country is on the rise.

In particular, ASEAN has a strong import dependence on my country in textiles, electromechanical, chemical, plastic, metal and other industrial products.

From the perspective of product structure, more than 70% of ASEAN's imports from my country are intermediate and capital goods.

This reflects that ASEAN has a large dependence on my country's industrial chain and supply chain.

For some products, my country is gradually growing into a source of supply in the middle and upper reaches of the ASEAN industrial chain, and continues to play an important role in the industrial chain of related products.

　　Zhang Jianping said that ASEAN has become China's largest trading partner.

ASEAN is dominated by developing economies, and the growth rate of demand is faster than that of developed countries. Superimposed the dividends brought by the implementation of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), the supply chain cooperation in the region has become closer and trade creation has been generated. effect, investment increase effect.

The entry into force of RCEP will bring new impetus to global economic growth, and East Asia is expected to be the "locomotive" of global economic growth for a long time in the future.

　　trade surplus

　　will remain high

　　At present, the global economic recovery is facing challenges. The World Bank, the International Monetary Fund, and the WTO have lowered their forecasts for global economic and trade growth for the whole year.

Experts interviewed by reporters pointed out that the central bank's monetary policy in major economies has tightened significantly, which may trigger a local or even global recession. Uncertain factors such as the lagging effect of inflation, geopolitical conflicts and repeated epidemics will interfere with my country's foreign trade operations in the second half of the year.

　　Zhang Jianping said that from the perspective of market expectations, the US economy has entered a technical recession, the European economy is also in jeopardy, and the Japanese economy is facing the risk of stagflation, all of which will have a negative impact on global demand.

However, it should also be noted that support policies such as tax cuts and fee reductions and inclusive finance will continue to exert force in the second half of the year, which will support exports.

In terms of imports, with the return of commodity prices to commodity attributes and the convening of important national-level exhibitions such as the China International Import Expo, it will be beneficial to expand imports in the second half of the year and allow foreign trade to develop in a more balanced manner.

　　Cui Xiaomin believes that the uncertain and unstable factors affecting my country's foreign trade import and export in the second half of the year mainly include three aspects.

First, under the pressure of persistently high inflation, the central banks of major economies have tightened their monetary policies sharply, which may trigger a local or even global recession.

In particular, we need to be alert to the double blow to the European economy caused by the European energy crisis and the accelerated tightening of the European Central Bank.

Second, under the political pressure of the mid-term elections, the United States accelerated the deployment of its "Indo-Pacific strategy".

Third, the new mutant strains lead to the accelerated spread of the epidemic.

Considering the trend of overseas demand and structural changes, my country's export growth rate is still expected to remain high in the third quarter, but in the fourth quarter, we need to be alert to the negative impact of the unexpected drop in overseas demand under the continuous interest rate hike on my country's exports.

In the second half of the year, the import growth rate may improve, but it is expected to remain weak overall.

The trade surplus is still expected to remain high, but with the decline in export growth and the bottoming out of the service trade deficit, the year-on-year growth rate of the trade surplus may fall.