China-Singapore Jingwei, August 13 (Wang Yongle) Recently, the National Bureau of Statistics announced the consumer price index (CPI) of 31 provinces in July 2022.

China-Singapore Jingwei combing found that in July, the year-on-year increase in CPI in 22 provinces was higher than that in the previous month, the increase in Beijing and other 8 places fell, and the increase in Shanghai, which fell alone last month, was flat.

Among them, the highest in Guangxi was up 3.1%, and the lowest in Tibet was up 1.8%.

6 to enter the "3" era

8 places have narrowed their gains

  According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in July 2022, the national CPI rose by 0.5% month-on-month and 2.7% year-on-year.

  China-Singapore Jingwei combing found that the CPI of 31 provinces increased year-on-year in July, with 16 and 13 provinces with increases higher or lower than the national level, respectively, and 14 and 12 in June.

In addition, it is worth noting that the growth rate of 8 provinces including Beijing, Heilongjiang, Tianjin, Guangdong, Qinghai, Tibet, Inner Mongolia, and Guizhou was lower than that in June, and only Shanghai fell last month.

  Specifically, 16 provinces, including Guangxi, Sichuan, Shanxi, Jilin, Zhejiang, Gansu, Shanghai, Anhui, Fujian, Guangdong, Shaanxi, Heilongjiang, Jiangxi, Hubei, Hunan, and Ningxia, rose above the national level. Among them, Guangxi, Sichuan and Shanxi , Jilin, Zhejiang, Gansu, etc. have entered the "3" era; Liaoning, Chongqing have the same growth rate as the national level; Jiangsu, Qinghai, Inner Mongolia, Hainan, Hebei, Henan, Yunnan, Shandong, Guizhou, Beijing, Tianjin, Xinjiang, Tibet and other 13 provinces The increase is lower than the national level, among which Tibet and Xinjiang remain in the "1 era".

  In addition, from the perspective of increase and decrease, Chongqing has the largest increase of 0.7 percentage points, and Beijing has the largest decrease of 0.4 percentage points.

  According to the analysis of the Bank of China Macro Report, the year-on-year growth rate of CPI in July was lower than market expectations mainly for three reasons: first, the year-on-year growth rate of core CPI was lower than that in June; It is the year-on-year increase in food prices, including pork prices, that drives the CPI less than market expectations.

  Cheng Qiang, chief macroeconomic analyst at CITIC Securities, also pointed out that due to the sharp rise in pork and fresh vegetable prices, food prices rose by 3.0% month-on-month, driving the CPI up 0.5 percentage points month-on-month.

However, considering that the low price effect of pig prices in 2021 will significantly reduce its weight in the CPI basket this year (the weight this year is 1.3%), the year-on-year CPI growth rate in July still maintained a moderate upward trend, slightly lower than market expectations.

What is the future trend of CPI?

  Judging from institutional forecasts, the CPI is still likely to rise year-on-year.

  The research report of Zhao Wei's team of China National Financial Group pointed out that the CPI may continue to rise in the short term, and it may reach about 3% by the end of the third quarter, and it will drop slightly in the fourth quarter.

In contrast, inflation is likely to exceed expectations at the beginning of 2023, and the core CPI may be driven by recovery from offline activities, and the “compensatory” price increase in the service industry will drive the recovery of the core CPI.

Under the neutral scenario, the CPI center in the first half of 2023 may reach 3%.

  Cheng Qiang predicts that the CPI may break up to 3% in the third quarter, but due to the limited room for pig prices to rise and the proportion of pig prices in the CPI basket has dropped significantly, the overall inflationary pressure is still controllable.

  Wang Qing, chief macro analyst of Oriental Jincheng, etc. predict that the CPI in August will remain near the current level year-on-year.

The rise in pork prices in the second half of the year will push up the CPI increase to a certain extent, but it will not change the overall moderate and controllable price situation. Inflation will remain the biggest difference between domestic and overseas economic fundamentals.

  According to the analysis of the Chen Xing team of Zhongtai Macro, from the high-frequency data, since August, the price of pork has dropped from the high level, and the price of fresh vegetables has changed from rising to falling. Narrowed, it is expected that the month-on-month growth rate of CPI in August will decline, and the year-on-year growth rate may remain high.

  On August 10, the central bank released the "China Monetary Policy Implementation Report for the Second Quarter of 2022". The report pointed out that my country's inflation trend has been generally moderate and stable in the past period of time. From January to June this year, the CPI has increased by 1.7% year-on-year, and the PPI year-on-year increase month by month. Convergence and decline, maintaining the stability of domestic price situation against the background of rare high inflation in the world.

It is expected that the price increase this year will still run within a reasonable range, and it is expected to achieve the expected target of an average annual CPI increase of around 3%.

(Sino-Singapore Jingwei APP)

(The opinions in this article are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice. Investment is risky, and you need to be cautious when entering the market.)

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