"China Economic Weekly" reporter Song Jie | Shanghai report

  10 years ago, Tesla only produced about 3,000 cars; 10 years later, this number has exceeded 3 million; in another 10 years, Musk said that Tesla is confident to achieve more than 100 million vehicles production target.

  On August 5th, Beijing time, the Tesla shareholders meeting was held in Austin, Texas.

Tesla CEO Elon Musk and senior executives shared issues such as Tesla's finance, business development, and forward-looking technology.

  In the first half of 2022, despite the test of the Shanghai epidemic, Tesla's Shanghai Gigafactory still produced nearly 300,000 vehicles, and the half-year delivery volume has accounted for more than 60% of the full-year delivery volume in 2021.

After the full resumption of work and production in Shanghai, Tesla’s Shanghai Gigafactory surpassed the historical record monthly sales performance before the epidemic, once again demonstrating the strong resilience of the Chinese economy.

  Perhaps because of this, at this Tesla shareholder meeting, Musk once again praised China, saying: "The Shanghai team is difficult to surpass."

Why praise Shanghai again?

  The reporter noticed that Musk has repeatedly praised China and the Shanghai Gigafactory.

As early as during the 2019 World Artificial Intelligence Conference, he bluntly said that he was very excited that Tesla could come to Shanghai, "Tesla China team has done a great job, and the Shanghai Gigafactory is very shocking. I am very surprised that Tesla is in Shanghai. The tremendous progress Shanghai has made, and the world has seen a good case, an innovative company can make good progress in China, which is very admirable. I salute everyone, you are amazing."

  If Shanghai Lingang in 2019 is the place where Tesla's "Chinese Dream" began, then in 2021, Tesla will usher in its "highlight moment" in only two years, with the "blessing" of the Shanghai Gigafactory As a result, Tesla has almost got rid of the "constraints" of production capacity.

This year, Tesla delivered 936,000 vehicles globally, of which Tesla China delivered 51.7%.

That year, Tesla’s revenue in the Chinese market reached US$13.844 billion, a year-on-year increase of 107.8%. You must know that in 2017, Tesla’s sales in China were only US$2.027 billion.

Just this year, Tesla became the fifth company with a US stock market value of over one trillion after Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, and Google's parent company Alphabet, and Musk was also firmly seated as the world's richest man.

  At the 2021 Tesla shareholder meeting, Musk once again praised the efforts of the Shanghai factory.

He said: "The Shanghai Gigafactory has amazing vehicle quality and operational efficiency, and is doing a great job!"

  In 2022, the Shanghai Gigafactory withstood multiple pressures such as production restrictions and shutdowns brought about by the epidemic, and together with the Fremont factory, created the highest monthly production record ever.

Musk once again praised at the shareholders meeting: "There will be healthy competition between the three factories in Austin, Fremont, and Berlin, but the Shanghai Gigafactory is difficult to surpass. I must admit that our Shanghai team is really very good. outstanding."

Can the small goal of 100 million vehicles be achieved?

  Musk said at this year's shareholders meeting that five years ago, many car companies shunned electric vehicles; today, most car companies have embraced electrification and recognized Tesla's direction.

"Tesla is not trying to take more market share, if it can show the industry a very competitive electric car, people are rushing to buy it, this is a profound thing."

  Regarding the "small goal" of producing 100 million cars, Musk said at the end of his speech: "I will be surprised if the total does not exceed 100 million in 10 years." Where does Musk's confidence come from?

Look at the data.

  According to China's auto sales data from the China Passenger Car Association, in June, Tesla's domestic deliveries reached a record high of 77,938 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 177%.

As of July, Tesla's Shanghai Gigafactory has delivered a total of 323,000 vehicles to global users in 2022, of which 206,000 have been delivered to the domestic market.

In the first half of this year, Tesla's global deliveries reached 565,000, and the Shanghai plant produced nearly 300,000 vehicles.

  According to information disclosed by Tesla at this year's shareholders meeting, in 2022, Tesla is expected to produce 1.5 million vehicles globally; by the end of this year, Tesla's global annual production capacity is expected to exceed 2 million vehicles.

  Later this year, Tesla will announce the results of the site selection for its latest factory.

Tesla predicts that in the future, a total of 10 to 12 super factories will be built in the world, and the annual production capacity of each super factory is expected to reach 1.5 million to 2 million vehicles.

Currently, the Fremont plant has become the most productive plant in North America.

  Tesla estimates that in terms of revenue, the Model Y will be the best-selling car this year; if calculated by sales, the Model Y will be the best-selling car next year.

"The humanoid robot Optimus is more valuable than a car"

  Musk specifically mentioned at this year's shareholder meeting that Tesla's humanoid robot, Optimus, will be more valuable than a car.

At the "AI Day" to be held at the end of September, Tesla will bring the latest progress in many products and technologies such as humanoid robots and FSD.

  According to the data, Tesla Bot, named Optimus (Optimus), is a humanoid robot with a height of 1.72m, a weight of 57kg, a load of 20kg (additional 5kg to the arm), and a walking speed of 2m/s. It uses Tesla's advanced AI technology. Driven by autonomous driving technology based on the predictive ability of the neural system of the visual neural network, it has the DOJO D1 supercomputing chip with extremely strong computing power.

Tesla Bot uses 40 motor push rods as a whole, making it very flexible and coordinated, and equipped with FSD computer + autonomous driving camera, it has high enough computing power and sensory intelligence.

  For Tesla, Tesla Bot is not less popular than cars, and will become an important product development project in 2022.

Tesla has said it hopes to use it to address labor shortage constraints.

According to Tesla's announcement of the details of the humanoid machine, it is expected that the mass production of Tesla Bot will lead to an increase in the market size of core components.

  At the Cyber ​​Rodeo event in 2022, the host Anderson estimated that the price of Tesla Bot will be set at $25,000, bringing the price of the robot to the consumer level for the first time, which is expected to promote the large-scale commercial promotion of humanoid robots.

  Since the degree of freedom of humanoid robots is much higher than that of traditional robots, it may bring about changes in the industrial chain. Tianfeng Securities predicts that the penetration rate of Tesla Bot in the fields of service robots and industrial robots is estimated to reach 15% and 3%, respectively, in 2025. , corresponding to the market of 56.728 billion yuan and 26.122 billion yuan.