• Lovers of real estate and big shots, here is an August situation that should interest you: inflation at 6% for a borrowing rate over 20 years at less than 2%, i.e. a real borrowing rate that is roughly negative .

  • Too good to last?

    Certainly, since conditions are expected to deteriorate sharply in the coming months.

  • Despite this highway to borrowing, the credit market is not racing that much, due to many economic uncertainties.

"It's time, it's time.

Before time, it's not time.

After the hour, it is no longer the hour.

This quote, which you probably harped on as a child, could now apply to your borrowing policy.

There is ONE specific time to borrow for it to be as profitable and advantageous as possible, and that's good, it's now.

Although the borrowing rate has increased from 1% over 20 years in January to 1.85% now, it is well below inflation, currently 6% in France.

“The real borrowing rate is therefore hyperfavorable because largely negative,” agrees Stéphanie Villers, specialist in macroeconomics.

Same observation with Philippe Crevel, economist and director of the Circle of Savings: “The period is ideal to borrow, especially if your salary follows that of inflation.

It's not every day that we have such an advantageous real rate!

A situation that reminds the expert of the 1970s and 1980s, when in a similar context, many French people took the opportunity to become owners.

Ideal period, uncertain market

Fans of real estate or good luck are not mistaken, since according to the Banque de France, loans to individuals are growing, + 6.2% in June compared to last year, and a nice estimate for July at 6.5%, levels not seen since the records of 2019 and the pre-health crisis.

"Loans have been on the rise for several months, and nothing indicates a decline to come for the moment", enthuses Philippe Crevel.

A significant increase certainly, but not really a rush either.

How to explain this reluctance with such a huge difference between inflation and borrowing rates?

If the period is conducive to tactical placements, it nevertheless remains very uncertain: "For most French men and women, there is a huge lack of visibility on the economic situation of the country and on their professional future, which is not very suitable for borrowings", recognizes Stéphanie Villers.

The situation is ideal yes, but only for "employees in an established situation and with enough income to see the changes coming", specifies the expert.

Which, let's face it, narrows the sample quite a bit.

According to an Ifop poll for Cafpi, 79% of French people believe that "we are still in the midst of a crisis", 66% are worried about the effects of inflation on access to credit and 57% believe that the level of inflation may delay a purchase plan.

So no joy.

Rendezvous in unknown real estate

There is also uncertainty in the real estate market, the rules of which have changed since the health crisis: “We have seen unusual phenomena appear, such as the drop in rent prices in Paris or a marked increase in areas conducive to teleworking.

The whole question is whether these trends will be sustainable, “says François Geerolf, professor of economics and specialist in investment issues.

Another situation favoring expectation, the hope of a fall in real estate prices in the future.

But the situation is unlikely to happen, according to the professor: "Unlike other developed countries, the price of real estate in France has not increased that much, so there should not be a sharp drop" .

And tick-tock tick-tock, the clock is ticking and time is running out to take out loans.

The European Central Bank officially announced on July 21 to raise its interest rates, while inflation could soon peak.

“Prices should increase less and less quickly, and the cost of borrowing will skyrocket, making the real borrowing rate much less profitable,” notes Stéphanie Villers.

Tomorrow is far away

Philippe Crevel is formal: “Today is more conducive to borrowing than tomorrow.

Soon, the conditions will be much less favorable so there is naturally among the French who can, a movement of "now or never" ”.

By the end of the year, gross mortgage rates could reach an average of 3%.

On June 29, the National Real Estate Federation (FNAIM) announcing in its half-yearly report a "turbulent phase" for the real estate market and expected a sharp drop in activity for the end of year.

The only glimmer of hope for François Geerolf, the beginnings of the economy to come could restore the image of borrowing, regardless of its profitability: "In times of chaos, real estate remains a safe haven, little correlated with the rest of the economic market.

After the hour, it is sometimes always the hour.

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