China News Service, August 10 (Xie Yiguan, reporter from China-News Finance and Economics) Data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on the 10th showed that in July, due to the increase in the price of pork, fresh vegetables and other food prices and seasonal factors, the national consumer price (CPI) year-on-year It rose by 2.7%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, and continued to hit a new high for the year.

CPI rise and fall chart.

Figure from the National Bureau of Statistics.

Year-on-year CPI growth continued to expand in July

  Judging from the CPI rise and fall trend chart, the CPI in July rose by 2.7% year-on-year, which not only reached the high point of the year, but also hit a new high since August 2020.

  Why did the CPI continue to expand year-on-year in July?

  According to Dong Lijuan, senior statistician of the Urban Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, food prices rose by 6.3%, an increase of 3.4 percentage points from the previous month, affecting the CPI rise of about 1.12 percentage points; non-food prices rose by 1.9%, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points from the previous month. , affecting the CPI rose by about 1.56 percentage points.

  Among food products, pork prices changed from a decrease of 6.0% in the previous month to an increase of 20.2%, affecting the CPI increase by about 0.27 percentage points; the prices of fresh fruits and fresh vegetables rose by 16.9% and 12.9% respectively, affecting the CPI increases by about 0.30 percentage points and about 0.24 percentage points; The prices of grain, poultry meat, eggs and edible vegetable oil increased by 3.4%-7.4%.

  "According to estimates, in the 2.7% year-on-year increase in July, the impact of last year's price changes was about 0.9 percentage points, and the impact of new price increases was about 1.8 percentage points." Dong Lijuan said that the core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, was year-on-year. The increase was 0.8%, and the increase was 0.2 percentage points lower than that of the previous month.

Data map: Citizens are shopping for daily necessities.

Photo by Zeng Cheng

Expert: "Pig and Vegetable Resonance" promotes food prices to rise month-on-month

  From a month-on-month perspective, the CPI increased by 0.5% from flat in the previous month.

Among them, food prices changed from a decrease of 1.6% in the previous month to an increase of 3.0%, affecting the CPI increase of about 0.53 percentage points.

  According to Dong Lijuan, pork prices rose by 25.6% month-on-month due to factors such as the gradual emergence of the effect of reducing the production capacity of live pigs in the early stage, the reluctance of some farmers to sell and the recovery of consumer demand.

  A reporter from Zhongxin Finance and Economics recently visited a supermarket in Xicheng District, Beijing and found that on July 1, the price of the front tip and rear tip was still 16.8 yuan per catty, and the price of pork belly was 20.8 yuan per catty.

On July 21, the price of the front tip and rear tip was 19.8 yuan per catty, and the price of pork belly was 23.8 yuan per catty.

  In addition, affected by the continuous high temperature weather in many places, the price of fresh vegetables changed from a decrease of 9.2% in the previous month to an increase of 10.3%, which was higher than the seasonal increase.

  "'Pork-vegetable resonance' pushed food prices up month-on-month in July." Wen Bin, chief economist of Minsheng Bank, said, but with the hot weather and the fall in demand, policies have guided market expectations, and pork prices have been adjusted recently.

  The reporter combed through the data of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs and found that since late July, the overall price of pork has dropped slightly.

Data map: Chongming, Shanghai, residents buy pork at the Miaozhen market.

Photo by China News Agency reporter Tian Yuhao

"A moderate rise in CPI is expected going forward"

  The National Agricultural Products Wholesale Market Price Information System shows that from July 29 to August 4, the average wholesale price of pork was 29.19 yuan/kg, down 1.5% month-on-month and up 32.9% year-on-year.

As of 14:00 on the 9th, the average price of pork in the national agricultural wholesale market was 28.89 yuan/kg, down 0.3% from the 8th.

  On the 9th, in a supermarket in the above-mentioned Xicheng District of Beijing, the reporter noticed that the price of pork has remained stable in recent days and has not fluctuated.

  Chen Guanghua, head of the Animal Husbandry and Veterinary Bureau of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, introduced at a press conference on July 20 that in general, the previous round of pig price increases were mainly due to restorative and seasonal increases, superimposed on some special factors, but production was sufficient. , pig prices do not have the power to continue to rise sharply in the later period.

  Wen Bin also said that the National Development and Reform Commission recently reminded relevant companies to maintain a normal slaughtering rhythm and avoid blindly pressing the slaughter.

  In addition, "as the monetary policies of major economies continue to tighten, and international commodity prices fall into recessionary transactions, my country's external inflationary pressures have eased." Wen Bin said, but in view of the global geopolitical situation, there are still great uncertainties. We should not be too optimistic about future external inflationary pressures.

  Wen Bin believes that on the whole, it is expected that the CPI will rise moderately in the future, and there is a high probability that the CPI will exceed 3% in some months (September and December), but the annual average level is still controlled within the policy target.

(Finish)