Author: Ma Yifan
Jiangxi has been derided by Jiangxi netizens as "little transparent" and "Akalin Province" in recent years because of its weak presence in the provinces of East and Central China.
However, a recent research report has drawn the attention of Nanchang, the capital of Jiangxi Province. After arranging 30,000 residential quarters, the Shell Research Institute found that Nanchang's housing vacancy rate actually leads 28 large and medium-sized cities, and one-fifth of them have been sold. Inventory housing is vacant.
In the past ten years, Nanchang, which has a long history, has achieved leapfrog development. Not only has GDP and population increased significantly, but the city’s appearance and skyline have also undergone great changes. The skyscrapers of Honggutan CBD are lined up one after another, and the urban area has increased significantly from 208 square kilometers. It increased to 366 square kilometers, an increase of 76%.
However, with the successive introduction of new city plans and the continuous rise of super high-rise buildings, many new areas in Nanchang have problems of insufficient popularity and low occupancy rate. No matter it is commercial office buildings or residential vacancy rates, Nanchang's data are all in the forefront of the country. .
At the beginning of this year, Nanchang has issued new regulations that will limit the height and number of super high-rise buildings.
The general housing inventory exceeds 80 million square meters
Recently, the Shell Research Institute announced the survey of housing vacancy in 28 large and medium-sized cities in China. The results show that the housing vacancy rate of Nanchang, the capital of Jiangxi Province, ranks first among the 28 large and medium-sized cities surveyed, reaching 20%. That said, one-fifth of the housing stock sold in Nanchang is vacant.
In second place is Langfang, with a vacancy rate of 19%.
For this survey, the Shell Research Institute said that there is no unified standard for the definition of vacant housing at home and abroad. The scope of this survey does not include the part of off-plan and existing houses for sale. The Shell Research Institute has mobilized senior brokers who have been employed for three years or more. A thorough investigation of the residential areas within its business scope, a total of about 30,000 residential areas were investigated, and housing that was unoccupied for more than 3 months was defined as "vacant housing", and urban housing was obtained by the formula of "vacant households/total number of households" vacancy rate.
Overall, the average housing vacancy rate in the 28 selected large and medium cities is 12%, which is in a high range.
In 2017, CICC released the "Studies on China's Housing Stock", which stated that the vacancy rate of China's urban housing in the narrow sense was 12.1%, which is close to the current overall data of the Shell Research Institute.
Generally speaking, if the vacancy rate of urban housing exceeds 10%, it is worthy of vigilance, and the potential risks cannot be ignored.
The research results of the Shell Research Institute show that the housing vacancy rate increases with the city's energy level. The average vacancy rate is 7% in first-tier cities, 12% in second-tier cities, and 16% in third-tier cities.
However, the vacancy rate data of the second-tier provincial capital city Nanchang is extraordinary, not only higher than the average vacancy rate of the third-tier cities, but also 8 percentage points higher than the average vacancy rate of the second-tier cities.
In fact, because the Shell Research Institute only selects the housing stock that has been sold this time, the vacancy rate obtained is relatively low compared to other statistical calibers.
In addition to the sold stock, Nanchang also has a large stock of newly built commercial housing.
According to the CRIC Research Center, as of the end of June this year, the generalized inventory of commercial housing in Nanchang had reached more than 80 million square meters, ranking among the top of the country's major and medium-sized cities.
The generalized inventory here includes the commercial residential buildings that have been approved for pre-sale, the residential buildings that have been started but have not been approved for sale, and the total construction area that has not been started.
The "Statistical Bulletin of Nanchang City's National Economic and Social Development in 2021" shows that the per capita housing construction area of local urban residents is 38.47 square meters.
Based on this calculation, the existing generalized inventory of commercial housing in Nanchang is sufficient for 2.08 million new people to live in.
In addition, the built-up area of Nanchang City has increased significantly from 208 square kilometers to 366 square kilometers in the past ten years, an increase of 76%.
However, according to the Nanchang Bureau of Statistics, the permanent population of Nanchang has increased by 1.35 million in the past ten years, the registered population has increased by 360,000, and the ten-year growth rate of the permanent population is only 26.5%.
It can be seen that the construction speed in Nanchang is much faster than the population growth rate.
The Shell Research Institute believes that once the vacancy rate of commercial housing is too high, there will be a surge in new listings for second-hand housing when the purchase restriction is relaxed.
According to data from multiple institutions, the number of second-hand houses listed in Nanchang has exceeded 60,000. In the first half of this year, the average monthly transaction of second-hand houses was about 1,230, and the second-hand house removal cycle reached 48 months.
There are new cities everywhere, and there are plans everywhere
In the past ten years, Nanchang has experienced a major development of infrastructure, and the planning of various new cities and new areas has made people overwhelmed.
In 2012, a "Core Growth Pole Mobilization Conference" changed the face of Nanchang. The conference announced "Several Opinions on Fully Supporting Nanchang's Development and Building Core Growth Pole". Jiangxi Province decided to strengthen its support for the provincial capital Nanchang.
In this document, Nanchang's "external expansion" is emphasized.
The "opinion" stated that in the future, Nanchang will form an urban development pattern of "one river, two banks and five groups" with Ganjiang as the main axis, and plan and construct the Jiulong Lake area with high standards and high quality, and strive to basically form an area of 100 square kilometers in five years. A new city frame with a population of 500,000 people.
In addition, it is necessary to speed up the construction of Changdong New District and Changnan New District, and orderly promote the construction of five functional groups of Yaohu Ecological Science and Technology New City, Changnan Modern Comprehensive New City, Jiulong Lake Modern Comprehensive New City, Lehua Airport New City, and Meiling Leisure and Resort New City. .
In 2016, Nanchang further expanded the scale of building a new city, and proposed that in addition to highlighting the construction of Jiulong Lake New City, it should also coordinate the development and construction of Chaoyang New City and Yaohu Science and Technology City, as well as the integration of industry and city development in the three national development zones. The overall development of the Linkong Economic Zone and the Xiangtang New Area, and the research and planning of the development and construction of the Yangzizhou Area.
"For home buyers, Nanchang is already full of new towns with plans everywhere. Most of the residential projects in the new towns are mainly large-scale and just-needed real estate. It is difficult to remove new real estate in Lake, Economic Development Zone and other places, and the popularity is not enough." Wu Ke (pseudonym), who has worked in Nanchang's real estate industry for more than ten years, told Yicai.com.
Wu Ke can take the Jiulong Lake area as an example. There are many high-rise buildings in this area, but the occupancy rate is relatively low, and the lighting rate is less than 50% at night. "A local self-media in Nanchang has done research on Jiulong Lake before. The renovation rate is 60-80%, and the occupancy rate is less than half.”
In the past ten years, Nanchang has not only planned a large number of new towns, but also has a strong preference for the construction of super high-rise buildings, which has allowed the entire city to continue to grow "upward", completely changing the appearance of the skyline, but also aggravating the problem of vacancy rates.
According to statistics, up to now, there have been 24 super high-rise buildings with a height of more than 200 meters in Nanchang, which is equal to the number of the capital Beijing, most of which are commercial properties.
At the end of last year, Jones Lang LaSalle published a white paper on China's office buildings. The data shows that in 41 large and medium-sized cities in China, Changchun, Wuxi and Nanchang ranked the top three in the list with a vacancy rate of over 40%.
Nanchang's preference for super high-rise buildings also extends from commercial and office buildings to residential areas.
Generally speaking, residential properties with more than 33 floors are classified as super high-rises, and commercial buildings with forty or fifty floors are rare.
Many years ago, Shimao Tiancheng in Nanchang launched a 174-meter-high, 54-storey residence, and Vanke Jinyu Lanwan launched a 39-storey super high-rise residence.
In recent years, Sunac Qingshan Lake No. 1, located in the core area of Nanchang's old city, consists of two super high-rise buildings, one with 43 floors and the other with 44 floors; the Chengbi Lake project in Xinzhou, located in the center of Nanchang County, It is planned to build two 47-storey super high-rise twin towers.
At the beginning of this year, Nanchang finally announced that it will strengthen the planning and construction management of super high-rise buildings, saying that the negative effects of super high-rise buildings in raising construction costs, increasing energy consumption, and increasing the difficulty of safety management cannot be ignored, which is not in line with the current green development. and carbon peaking and carbon neutrality requirements.
In terms of residential buildings, Nanchang issued regulations stating that when approving residential buildings above 80 meters and public buildings above 100 meters, relevant local departments should seek the opinions of local fire rescue agencies to ensure that the rescue capabilities match.
In addition, new super high-rise buildings above 250 meters will be strictly restricted, and no new super high-rise buildings above 500 meters will be allowed.
In the past 20 years, my country's land urbanization has been significantly faster than population urbanization, and the development trend of "bread pie" in various places is obvious. Nanchang is a microcosm.
Li Wenjie, dean of the Shell Research Institute, said that in my country, the urbanization process has developed from land urbanization to human urbanization, and the marginal effect of incremental development by means of "spreading pie" has been decreasing, and people's attention to community life has been decreasing. Higher, the logic of urban development has changed a lot.
Today, taking the route of reduced development and connotative development has become the pursuit of most large and medium-sized cities.