China News Service, August 10th (Xie Yiguan, a reporter from China News and Finance) On August 10th, the National Bureau of Statistics will announce the national consumer price index (CPI) in July. Under the influence of factors such as pork and vegetable prices rising, many institutions expect , the year-on-year increase in CPI in July may have expanded.
CPI rise and fall chart.
from the National Bureau of Statistics
July CPI year-on-year increase may continue to expand
Affected by factors such as the low base last year, the CPI in June rose by 2.5% year-on-year, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month and a new high for the year.
What will happen to the year-on-year CPI in July?
According to the monitoring of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, in July, the average wholesale price of pork in the national agricultural product wholesale market was 29.1 yuan/kg, up 34.9% month-on-month and 30.7% year-on-year; the average wholesale price of vegetables was 3.96 yuan/kg, up 19.9% month-on-month and 21.3% year-on-year. %.
A reporter from Zhongxin Finance visited a supermarket in Xicheng District, Beijing and found that on July 1, the price of the front tip and rear tip was still 16.8 yuan per catty, and the price of pork belly was 20.8 yuan per catty.
On July 21, the price of the front tip and rear tip was 19.8 yuan per catty, and the price of pork belly was 23.8 yuan per catty.
"With the continuous reduction of live pig production capacity, the average price of pork rose to 29.1 yuan per kilogram in July, which turned from a drag on the CPI year-on-year to an upward pull. The prices of vegetables and fresh fruits showed an upward trend under the influence of high temperature weather and seasonal factors. Trend." CITIC Securities believes that under the influence of the above factors, it is expected that the CPI in July will continue to rise to a level close to 3.0% year-on-year.
In addition, China Merchants Securities predicts that the CPI in July rose by 1.0% month-on-month and 3.2% year-on-year.
"The CPI increased significantly in July, and the core contributing factors came from pork and vegetables in the food item. In terms of non-food items, it is expected that the decline in energy prices and the recent repeated epidemics will drag down residents' energy and service consumption prices, and slightly offset the impact of rising food prices."
According to the statistics of Flush iFinD, the average forecast of 17 institutions for the year-on-year increase of CPI in July was 2.87%.
If the above-mentioned average forecast values are fulfilled, the year-on-year increase in the CPI in July will continue to expand, hitting a new high for the year.
The price of pork in a supermarket in Xicheng District, Beijing.
Photo by Xie Yiguan, a reporter from China-Singapore Finance and Economics
Prices are expected to maintain a moderate upward trend
Into August, pork prices fell slightly.
The National Agricultural Products Wholesale Market Price Information System shows that from July 29 to August 4, the average wholesale price of pork was 29.19 yuan/kg, down 1.5% month-on-month and up 32.9% year-on-year.
Fu Linghui, spokesperson of the National Bureau of Statistics and director of the National Economic Comprehensive Statistics Department, recently pointed out that at present, the production capacity of live pigs has generally returned to normal levels, and the price does not have the basis for a sharp increase.
In the early stage, the big pigs will be released one after another, which is conducive to increasing the supply of pork.
In addition, relevant departments will strengthen market regulation and stabilize the relationship between supply and demand, which will promote the smooth operation of prices.
Fu Linghui also said that after entering the flood season, the supply of fresh commodities in some areas may be affected to a certain extent, and the influence of international imported factors may continue, but the supply capacity of my country's commodities and services is generally sufficient, and the market can ensure stable supply and stable prices. The intensity is increasing, and the price is expected to maintain a moderate upward trend.
Tan Zhuo, director of the Macroeconomic Research Institute of China Merchants Bank Research Institute, believes that looking forward, the CPI inflation center will rise significantly in the second half of the year, and volatility will also increase.
In the third quarter, CPI inflation may rise or exceed expectations, and the high point will be significantly higher than 3%.
The third quarter of last year was a low point for pork prices, which may lead to a significant upward trend in the CPI inflation driven by meat.
Tan Zhuo said that the decline in CPI inflation in the fourth quarter may also exceed expectations.
First, the reduction of the production capacity of reproductive sows is not sufficient, and this round of reduction is accompanied by a rapid increase in the proportion of binary sows, that is, the increase in the reproductive capacity of a single sow, which may lead to a sharp slowdown in the price increase of pigs in the fourth quarter; second It is because the international grain price has peaked and declined, and the oil price has also changed from a continuous upward trend to a shock. Combined with the high base in the same period last year, the contribution of edible oil, fuel and other items to the CPI is also expected to narrow significantly.
(Finish)
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