China News Service, August 9 (Zhongxin Finance and Economics reporter Zuo Yukun) The long-silent real estate market in Beijing has been waiting for a cluster of flames.
After the news of the abolition of purchase restrictions has been spread for a long time, Langfang City, Hebei Province finally waited for the officially announced loosening of purchase restrictions and sales restrictions.
Can the long-silent property market around Beijing be ignited again?
Data map: Yanjiao Exit Interchange Hub of Tongyan Expressway.
Liu Xiangshe
Langfang City officially announced the abolition of purchase restrictions
"Beijing Back Garden", "The First Town Around Beijing"... Various names surround Yanjiao Town, Langfang, Hebei, which is only 30 kilometers away from the center of Beijing and faces Tongzhou across the river.
Among them, the name that can most directly reflect its characteristics is probably "Sleeping City".
This is because in Yanjiao, there are a group of people who "live in Beijing and sleep in Yanjiao".
They work in Beijing, but because of the high housing prices in Beijing, they choose to buy or rent a house in Yanjiao, leaving early and returning late to join the crowd of working people in Beijing.
Recently, new changes have appeared in "Sleeping City".
According to the People's Government of Langfang City, Hebei Province, the "Six Measures for Supporting the Virtuous Cycle and Healthy Development of the Real Estate Industry" released by Langfang City, where it is located, shows that the cancellation of household registration and social security (personal tax) is not suitable for the current real estate market situation. restrictive purchase conditions.
At the same time, the housing sales restriction period requirements for the "North Three Counties" and the surrounding counties (cities) of Xiong'an New Area are also completely cancelled.
In addition, "policy packages" such as reducing the housing provident fund down payment ratio, subsidizing the purchase of the first home, and increasing the provident fund loan amount are also offered.
For example, for households who take out loans to purchase ordinary self-occupied housing, the lower limit of the interest rate for commercial personal housing loans for the first set of housing is adjusted to not lower than the market quoted interest rate for loans of the corresponding period minus 20 basis points, and strive to issue weighted new personal housing loans in the city in August 2022. The average rate was down 30 basis points from April.
"There are no restrictions on household registration and social security in the purchase of houses, and there are no restrictions on the transfer of houses, and the relaxation is relatively large; and the policy involves a relatively large range, especially when mentioning cities such as Beisan County and Huanxiong'an New Area, the scope of relaxation It is more comprehensive." Yan Yuejin, research director of the Think Tank Center of E-House Research Institute, commented.
The industry generally believes that this is a big move in the Beijing property market.
Before that, in the five years since Langfang's "Strictest Purchase Restriction Order" was issued, Yanjiao had experienced a roller coaster ride where house prices were cut in half.
Data map: In October 2018, in Yanjiao's "sales street", a loaded tricycle was parked in front of the closed Lianjia store. The owner of the car sat on the ground and buried his head deeply in his arms.
Photo by Qiu Yu
The turning point in 2017
The story of the property market around Beijing can be traced back to around 2012. The average price of real estate in Yanjiao was only 7,000 to 8,000 yuan per square meter.
In 2015, Tongzhou, which is more than 10 kilometers away from Yanjiao, became the sub-center of Beijing city, and in 2016, the Beijing property market heated up sharply, and the huge price difference made Yanjiao more attractive.
"The rise in housing prices in Yanjiao since 2016 is mainly due to the rise in housing prices in Beijing, which has led to a large amount of housing demand spilling over to Beijing, as well as the help of loose monetary policy." The analysis of the Central Plains Real Estate Research Institute believes that.
In addition to real house buyers, there are many real estate speculators who have heard the sound and plunged into this "fertile field".
Under the leverage, the highest point in 2017, the unit price of Yanjiao houses has soared to nearly 50,000 yuan per square meter.
But the "roller coaster" quickly reached the point where it fell.
In June 2017, Langfang’s purchase restrictions were upgraded: households with non-local household registration who can provide local tax certificates or social insurance payment certificates for more than 3 years are limited to purchasing 1 set of housing, including new commercial housing and second-hand housing; local household registration is limited to 2 sets.
Most of the people who buy houses in the Beijing area are people who work in Beijing and pay personal tax and social security. This group of house buyers has been greatly reduced, and the market transaction scale has dropped rapidly.
According to data from the Think Tank Center of E-House Research Institute, the average transaction price of new houses in Langfang has fallen to 9,628 yuan/㎡ in 2022 after reaching a high of 11,364 yuan/㎡ in 2018, falling below 10,000 yuan for the first time in four years.
"Langfang's real estate market, especially the commercial housing in Beisan County (Dachang Xianghe Gu'an), has seen a very big drop in volume and price in recent years. Since reaching a high point in 2017, many real estate prices have fallen by 50% or more. In key and hot areas, such a large drop is very rare." Li Yujia, chief researcher of the Housing Policy Research Center of the Guangdong Provincial Urban Planning Institute, introduced.
Since the beginning of this year, due to the impact of the local epidemic, the transactions of Gu'an and Xianghe around Beijing have been even more sluggish.
According to Zhuge's housing search data, the transaction volume in Langfang in the first half of the year was only 6,763 units, which was only 40% of the transaction level last year.
People in the industry believe that from the perspective of stabilizing the real estate market, stabilizing growth, ensuring the delivery of buildings, and benefiting people's livelihood, the Beijing area urgently needs a bailout policy.
The relaxation of restrictions on sales has long been on the horizon.
On June 17 this year, the official website of the Langfang Municipal Government announced the "Six Policy Measures for Supporting the Virtuous Cycle and Healthy Development of the Real Estate Industry".
However, the first measure was not announced to the public at that time, but was "omitted".
Compared with other content of the current "Policy Clear Card", it is basically the same as the content of "Six Articles in the Gallery".
Data map: At the entrance of a community in Sanhe City, passengers are waiting in line to take a commuter customized express bus.
Photo by Gao Shu
Huanjing, is it still attractive?
"From the perspective of policy effects and market trends, the cancellation of the purchase restriction policy in Langfang City and Beisan County has been implemented, the down payment ratio has also been implemented 20% for the first set, 30% for the second set, and the minimum mortgage interest rate is 4.25%, but the market has not There has been a recovery.” said Chen Wenjing, director of market research at the Index Division of the China Index Research Institute.
The reason is that, on the one hand, the housing supply in Beijing has gradually increased in recent years, and at the same time, the epidemic prevention and control has been strictly controlled, and the cross-city commuting around Beijing has been affected to a certain extent, and the spillover demand in Beijing has basically "disappeared"; The development is less than expected, the population import is limited, and the pace of local rigid demand entering the market is also slowing down during the market downturn.
"Therefore, even if the policies such as purchase restriction and sales restriction are lifted, the boosting effect on the trading market may be limited, and the short-term adjustment of the real estate market in the Langfang area may be difficult to change." Chen Wenjing said.
Li Yujia also believes that the current market sentiment is very weak, and the expectations for housing prices are not very optimistic about the future of the Beijing property market, and it is difficult to see a significant rebound in the short and medium term.
However, he also mentioned that under the circumstance that the current investment demand has been fully withdrawn and the policy of controlling capital and credit is still effective, the new policy has a positive effect on meeting the rigid demand and improvement demand, especially the demand of some new residents in nearby Beijing to buy houses. meaning.
"With a down payment of 30,000 to 400,000 yuan, I can buy a two-bedroom apartment of almost 90 square meters in Yanjiao, which is unthinkable in Beijing. Even if the commute is inconvenient, the checkpoint is troublesome, and the journey is a few hours, but I want to get married, raise children, Elderly people. Is this attractive to out-of-towners working in Beijing? The 920,000 commuters around Beijing must already have the answer." A citizen who bought a house in Yanjiao told reporters.
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