The German share index Dax rose by a good 1 percent to 13,720 points on Monday.

That's up about 10 percent from its July lows.

The positive interpretation of economic data is currently prevailing.

On Friday, the US job market report was exceptionally good.

528,000 jobs were created in July.

An increase in jobs of 250,000 was expected. On the one hand, this is seen as proof that the American economy is far from a recession, but on the other hand, fears of further sharp interest rate hikes by the Fed to get inflation under control are increasing .

Daniel Mohr

Editor in Business.

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"In principle, it doesn't matter whether interest rates are expected to rise by 75 or 100 basis points," says Sven Streibel, chief equity strategist at DZ Bank.

"More importantly, the Fed has sent clear signals that fighting inflation is still its top priority, despite the risks to economic momentum." , the Fed is “far from finished” with the task of lowering inflation.

Equity strategist Streibel therefore advises caution.

"At the moment the concerns on the markets have receded somewhat, but the zero-Covid strategy in China, the war in Ukraine and the aggressive tightening of monetary policy by many central banks are risks and negative factors for the global economy and thus also for the stock markets. Streibel therefore sees no real buying prices on the markets and advises waiting until the situation becomes a little clearer.

Inflation data for July will be released in America on Wednesday.

August and September are the weakest months

Uwe Streich, stock expert at Landesbank Baden-Württemberg, assesses the current situation as fragile: "A single stimulus can ensure that the mood changes again overnight." The mixture of too high valuations on the stock markets makes him weaker skeptical about the earnings momentum of the companies, the typically weakest stock market months of August and September and the carefree declining volatility on the stock markets.

"In addition, the Fed is putting the brakes on massively, which will only show its effect on the economy with a time lag," says Streich.

"In fact, I see a danger that she could overshoot."

The Fed recently carried out two major rate hikes of 75 basis points each, bringing the key interest rate to 2.5 percent.

This corresponds to the level at which the US central bankers assume the neutral level.

"Every further interest rate hike therefore has a slowing effect on the economy." The next central bank meeting will take place on September 20th and 21st.