There is no doubt that gas customers will have to spend more.

The suppliers are raising their tariffs, and politicians are pushing the gas surcharge, which can increase the costs for a household's annual consumption of 20,000 kilowatt hours by up to 1000 euros.

At least the state does not want to earn money with the VAT, as Federal Finance Minister Christian Lindner (FDP) has announced.

Christian Geinitz

Business correspondent in Berlin

  • Follow I follow

Jan Hauser

Editor in Business.

  • Follow I follow

Johannes Pennekamp

Responsible editor for economic reporting, responsible for "The Lounge".

  • Follow I follow

However, there is now opposition to the VAT exemption from economists, who are banking on the fact that more natural gas will be saved with higher prices.

The Nuremberg professor Veronika Grimm calls for the VAT to be levied and in return to be compensated for those who cannot bear the hardships that arise on their own.

"Not to levy VAT would again be a compensation with the watering can, similar to the tank discount," she told the FAZ. "But it must not now be about relieving upper income." Not levying VAT would also indirectly use fossil fuels subsidize.

Price signals before winter

The Düsseldorf economist Jens Südekum even advises a higher surcharge on the gas price, which according to the Minister for Economic Affairs can be up to 5 cents per megawatt hour.

Südekum speaks of a surcharge of 15 to 20 cents: "The state would generate enormous revenue and could thus put together a relief package for low earners," he told the FAZ. The economist sees the problem that the price signals cannot yet be passed on in the short term: For For some customers, the gas price per kilowatt hour is 6 or 7 cents, but it will increase in the direction of 25 cents, which new customers are already paying today.

From an economic point of view, Südekum considers it important that the price signals come now before winter in order to maximize the savings incentives for private households.

"If private households don't save,

It remains uncertain how much natural gas comes from Russia to Germany – and how much natural gas can thus be consumed.

Politicians must prepare for various scenarios.

According to the study "How to do it" by Rüdiger Bachmann, Moritz Schularick, Georg Zachmann and eight other economists, without Russian gas supplies and without reducing demand by the end of the heating period at the end of May, there would be a shortage of around 210 terawatt hours (TWh) of gas.

Then gas consumption would have to drop by around 25 percent – ​​especially in industry and households.

For comparison: the capacity of German gas storage facilities is around 250 TWh and is sufficient for around two winter months.

Gas shortage possible in December

Even if Russia continues to deliver 20 percent of the capacity of Nord Stream 1, as is currently the case, things only look a little better, as the Bochum environmental economist Andreas Loechel, also an author of the study, estimates on request.

In this scenario, around 130 TWh are missing: That would have to be offset by savings.

"This corresponds to a reduction in demand of around 16 percent to get through the winter," said Loechel.

It includes a minimum storage level of 50 TWh.

In any case, a reduction in consumption seems to be necessary.

The President of the Federal Network Agency, Klaus Müller, said about the scenario that Russia would continue to deliver only 20 percent: Even then, in the best case scenario, an “acceptable storage level” could be achieved by the end of winter, which would also get you through the winter after next could.

But that only applies if consumers use a fifth less gas - i.e. save much more than before - and if Germany also transmits a fifth less gas to other countries.