The stock markets have been steadily rising for almost four weeks.
If you only look at the prices, you might think that all is right with the world.
But she isn't.
For years, the central banks have pumped huge amounts of money into the markets.
Those times are over for now.
Interest rates are galloping in America and many other regions of the world.
The European Central Bank must also face the bitter reality of inflation and at the same time keep an eye on debtors like Italy.
The supply chains falter.
Companies cannot produce properly because they are missing parts.
Now rivers like the Rhine also have low water and three ships have to transport what one could otherwise load.
It gets expensive or doesn't work at all.
Coal as a gas substitute - will be difficult if the rivers fail as a transport route.
Maybe there will be enough gas in winter, but maybe not.
Big question marks behind elementary questions for the business world.
Many are therefore currently talking about a bear market rally – i.e. a short breather in a downtrend.
But perhaps the stock markets are already looking optimistically behind the crises with wise foresight.
One does not know.
Because of this uncertainty, the risk premium – i.e. the return – on the stock markets is high over the long term.
This requires patience and nerves.
Even more than usual in the coming weeks. Many profit estimates are still quite high and the recession is not there.