The Zhengzhou Real Estate Relief Fund, which has attracted much attention, has a preliminary plan.

On the evening of August 5, according to local media reports in Henan, Zhengzhou recently issued an operation plan for the establishment of a real estate rescue fund, with a tentative scale of 10 billion yuan.

This is also the first local real estate bailout fund to be launched since the unfinished property owners across the country cut off supply in early July.

  The establishment of the special bailout fund is mainly used to alleviate social problems and financial risks caused by the suspension of real estate projects and the suspension of monthly mortgage payments, and to boost market confidence.

  However, some industry insiders said in an interview with a reporter from China Business News that this model is too ideal, and the motivation for most institutions to participate may be limited. Whether the expected effect can be achieved remains to be seen.

  According to the statistics of unfinished properties in many places in China exposed in early July, Zhengzhou ranks among the top in the country in terms of the number of suspended projects, involving Evergrande, Sunac, Aoyuan, Sunshine City and many other out-of-risk real estate companies.

  The first financial reporter called a number of housing companies to learn that the specific use plan of the Zhengzhou bailout fund has not yet been clarified at the housing company level.

  A reporter from China Business News called the relevant staff of the Zhengzhou Housing Administration Office and was told to "contact the publicity department first".

Can tens of billions of funds leverage social capital?

  The document shows that the bailout fund operates in the form of a parent-sub-fund, and each development zone, district, county (city) must attract different types of social capital to participate in the establishment of sub-funds according to different projects.

  From the perspective of fund utilization, the revitalized funds will be specially used for problem real estate projects of distressed housing enterprises, focusing on solving the problem of partial shutdown and monthly mortgage payment.

In this process, central enterprises, local state-owned enterprises and state-owned investment and financing companies will become the main body of project activation, and finally achieve the leverage effect of "revitalizing one, saving a batch", and gradually resolve potential risks.

  The size of the special fund itself is tentatively set at 10 billion yuan, and the relevant development zones, districts and counties (cities) must also attract different types of social capital to participate in the establishment of sub-funds according to the rescue projects.

  "10 billion yuan is spread over more than a dozen unfinished projects, and a project can get up to 700 to 800 million yuan, which can make the project turn around for a short period of time at most. But to attract more capital, profitability is the primary issue." An institutional person who has been studying the real estate industry for a long time told reporters that the scale of tens of billions itself has little effect, and the focus is to attract more social capital to participate, but the motivation for most institutions to participate may be limited.

  In his view, if the acquisition mode is adopted at a low price, the companies participating in the rescue will have to pay in the end, and the motivation to make a move will be greatly reduced.

Therefore, in the early stage of the fund's development, it may still need to be driven by state-owned enterprises, but it is still difficult to predict how much the investment amount can reach.

  According to the arrangement of the Zhengzhou Municipal Government, the implementation of the sub-fund is mainly composed of the special bailout fund, state-owned companies at the urban level, social capital (including but not limited to central enterprises, provincial state-owned enterprises, construction enterprises, asset management companies, financial institutions), etc. Form.

  Among them, in addition to the special bailout fund that must be contributed, the state-owned investment and financing company in the project area should, in principle, participate in the formation of sub-funds.

  In addition, the project revitalization funds are raised through the sub-fund's own funds or financing methods, of which the former is not higher than 40% in principle, and the remaining funds are raised by actively seeking merger and acquisition loans from financial institutions and other methods to raise low-cost funds.

Based on this calculation, under the assumption that the special bailout fund will contribute 30%, the total amount of funds that will be leveraged in the ideal case is expected to exceed 80 billion yuan.

  According to the above expectations, through the special bailout fund, social capital will be used to revitalize 1 or 2 existing projects with high net assets of distressed housing enterprises, and the distressed housing enterprises will be urged to use the replacement funds to alleviate some of their early investment. The problem of insufficient funds in the monthly mortgage payment real estate has achieved the leverage effect of "revitalizing one, saving a batch", and gradually resolved potential risks.

  However, the above-mentioned institutions still believe that if the plan is ultimately more inclined to "save the project and the market" rather than "save the enterprise", it may be too idealistic and it is difficult to achieve the expected effect.

  According to the analysis of Yihan Think Tank, it is a question whether the scale of the real estate fund is sufficient. In addition, it is still uncertain whether the unified loan and unified repayment model can obtain funds from the CDB.

Therefore, although the local government is required to consolidate its responsibilities, the local government may face the dilemma of "a clever woman can't cook without rice".

  "It is difficult to judge the specific effect of all bailout plans before they are implemented, and they cannot just stay on paper." An asset management company (AMC) executive told Yicai.com.

Multi-party participation in the promotion of "guaranteed handover"

  "Securing the handover of the building" has become one of the most important tasks to prevent and defuse risks in key areas.

  At present, in addition to Zhengzhou, Xianyang, Shaanxi, Suining, Sichuan, etc. have also put forward the preliminary plan of "one-to-one" mode to guarantee the handover of buildings.

  On the evening of August 5, China Huarong, one of the four major AMCs, announced that it had signed a rescue strategic cooperation agreement with Sunshine Group.

The above-mentioned AMC executives revealed to the first financial reporter that the four major AMCs in China are currently doing similar promotion work, and they will be disclosed one after another after the project is confirmed, but the most important thing is still the actual landing situation.

  On the same day, the Shanghai Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission held a mid-year work meeting and pointed out that it supports Shanghai to do a good job in "guaranteeing and handing over buildings".

  On July 28, the Politburo of the Central Committee was the first to submit a guarantee to hand over the building, and emphasized the responsibility of the local government, and proposed to "use the policy toolbox according to the city."

  Subsequently, the central bank and the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission emphasized the importance of "guaranteeing and handing over the building" in the second half of the work conference.

According to the central bank, differentiated housing credit policies will be implemented according to city-specific policies.

Maintain the stability of financing channels such as real estate credit and bonds, and accelerate the exploration of new development models for real estate.

  The China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission stated that it will support local governments to do a good job in "guaranteing and handing over buildings" and promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market.

The person in charge of the relevant departments of the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission also said in an interview with the media recently that they will guide banks to "actively participate in the study of plans to reasonably solve the hard capital gap" under the overall framework of the local "guarantee and handover" work arrangement.

  Wang Yifeng, chief analyst of the financial industry of Everbright Securities, said that the key to implementing "guaranteing the delivery of buildings" lies in "compacting the responsibilities of local governments."

The problems of "guaranteing and handing over buildings" in various places are complex and varied, with distinct local characteristics.

To implement the responsibility requirements, local governments need to combine local actual conditions, give full play to their initiative and creativity, and flexibly take targeted measures based on local resource endowments and the operation of the real estate market.

  The research of Yihan Think Tank pointed out that in the case that it is difficult to solve the problem simply by relying on marketization, it is recommended to provide initial credit and establish a coordination mechanism at the national level. AMC institutions provide interest-free or low-interest loans, and encourage them to actively participate in the revitalization project; the second step is to establish a credit mechanism for guaranteeing the delivery of buildings, coordinate credit resources at the national level, and standardize the whole process of credit issuance and recovery. Responsibilities undertaken by relevant entities such as the government and project developers.

  Author: Qi Ning