According to strategists at American investment bank Goldman Sachs and wealth manager Sanford C. Bernstein, the recent strong recovery in the stock markets will not last.
Macroeconomic data continued to deteriorate and earnings forecasts are expected to be cut.
"Without clear signs of a positive change in macroeconomic dynamics, a temporary resurgence in risk appetite could increase the risk of a market downward move," Goldman strategists led by Cecilia Mariotti wrote in an analysis on Thursday.
After June, which was heavily dominated by bears, market positioning has recovered in recent weeks, according to Goldman.
In the near term, shifts in asset allocation could lead to another rally.
Ultimately, however, the strategists are not convinced that the "true bottom" has been crossed in terms of positioning.
The further course will depend on the macroeconomic data.
In an analysis Thursday, Bernstein strategists Sarah McCarthy and Mark Diver said the cycle of earnings cuts has only just begun when it comes to corporate earnings.
This means that increased outflows from equity funds are also to be expected.
On balance, investors stopped buying shares in the second quarter.
So far, however, the funds have not experienced a reversal of the "enormous" inflows of $200 billion in the first quarter.
"In the short term, we expect the market to decline further," the strategists said.