Moncloa prepares for the worsening of the crisis at the turn of summer

• Employment Sánchez now asks "to read the unemployment data with different lenses" and Calviño no longer rules out the recession

The Government's concern about economic developments in the coming months has skyrocketed.

The first vice president,

, had been warning of "uncertainty" for some time and showing signs of nervousness.

And both the second vice president,

, and the Minister of Social Security,

, had warned that the unemployment data for July would not be so positive.

But the unusual destruction of jobs that occurred last month went much further and represents a change, a turning point that is also recognized in Moncloa despite the fact that the Prime Minister tried to ignore this situation last Tuesday in Palma.

And such is the change that

, and the Executive is preparing for an autumn and winter that will be especially complex marked by the economic slowdown, high inflation, the unemployment figures themselves and the that can happen in Europe and, especially, in Germany.

recovery is delayed

That the Government is already officially discounting a significant slowdown is evident in the reduction of eight tenths of the expected growth for next year.

Because this year's figure will not drop below 4% except catastrophe.

4.3%, according to the Executive.

But for the next Economy figure is 2.7%, and estimates such as those of BBVA Research foresee a rebound of just 1.8% and

.

“The reasons include the scarcity of raw materials, the increase in their price and the recent translation that has been observed of this increase in production costs towards inflation, as well as the expected rebound in the financial burden of companies and families as that the ECB advances in the withdrawal of monetary stimuli”, is stated in the latest report from the research service.

The result of all this is that Spain will take even longer to return to the levels of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) prior to the pandemic.

The whole of the Eurozone did it already in 2021 and, in principle, the Spanish economy would achieve it in 2022. Then it signed up for the first half of 2023, later it was the second part of that same year, and now there

.

skyrocketing prices

The future evolution of inflation is not encouraging either.

After the CPI rose 10.8% in July, a record for the last 38 years, the Executive has already admitted that inflation will be "

".

In its last revision of the economic forecasts, carried out at the end of July, it has already updated its consumption deflator forecast upwards to 7.8% for the average for the year.

To date, prices have risen on average 8.7%.

Calviño pointed out this week that his forecast, in line with that of the ECB and the Bank of Spain, is that "

" from September.

"We are going to do everything possible [to lower it] with measures that are consistent with our medium-term goals," he promised.

The forecast, however, does not take into account a hypothetical restriction of the gas that Russia supplies to Europe and that, if it occurs in the third quarter,

.

The vice president herself recognized that, in truth, the future depends on it, and the fear that this threat materializes, together with the loss of purchasing power suffered by households, is fostering uncertainty and discouraging demand, something that is already having repercussions to the manufacturing sector and services.

The industry

Faced with the collapse of orders, the

had to

in July to the lowest level in the last year and a half, with temporary and total closures, strikes and even workforce cuts by many companies in the country.

The

for the sector, published this Monday by S&P, stood at

, its lowest level since May 2020 and below 50 points, which is the limit that marks the difference between contraction and increase.

"Companies surveyed reported that

due to an increasingly uncertain environment, with

in the second half of the year," the company explained.

The

did register growth in July, according to this same indicator, but

to the lowest level since August 2020. "Fears of a recession in the second half of the year are increasingly common," explained the firm's analysts.

The turning point in employment

This slowdown in the economy has already spread to

: this July, for the first time in more than 20 years, jobs were destroyed (in total, 7,366) and unemployment increased by 3,230 people.

Calviño recognized "the slowdown in the labor market, the greater uncertainty and the less dynamism", while the Secretary of State for Employment,

, described the data as "bad", warned that

for the labor market and stated that it would not be surprising or striking if

He himself hinted that there is a

although better prepared thanks to the labor reform.

In light of the data, businessmen and economists have already warned that there is going to be a

worrying slowdown in employment

and that

a message that has already settled in public opinion and that uses the opposition to charge against the Government.

"Sánchez is falling into Zapatero's mistake: denying the crisis,"

, general coordinator of the PP, on Tuesday.

Taxation and tax revenue

The figures from the Tax Agency will continue to set record highs.

In the first six months, tax collection has already exceeded 100,000 million and the Treasury estimates that the final figure will comfortably exceed its own forecasts.

Thanks to this, they explain both in the Ministry of Finance and in Moncloa, it is being possible

.

For next year, with the worsening of the crisis, the figures may not be so positive, but the Government is already working on it with the two new taxes on banks and energy companies.

His estimate is to enter

and, even if the affected companies file a complaint, the companies will have to pay the tax.

Then, if in the future justice were to agree with the plaintiffs, the Government at that time would be obliged to return what was deposited.

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