(Economic Observation) The Politburo meeting first mentioned "guaranteing the delivery of buildings". How will China's property market go in the second half of the year?

　　China News Agency, Beijing, August 2nd, Question: The Politburo meeting first mentioned "guaranteing the delivery of buildings". How will China's property market go in the second half of the year?

　　China News Agency reporter Pang Wuji

　　The Politburo meeting of the CPC Central Committee held recently to analyze and study the current economic situation and plan the economic work for the second half of the year.

The meeting pointed out that it is necessary to stabilize the real estate market, adhere to the positioning that houses are used for living, not for speculation, make full use of the policy toolbox for city-specific policies, support rigid and improved housing needs, compact local government responsibilities, and ensure payment. Building, stable people's livelihood.

　　A number of experts pointed out that the meeting determined the focus of work related to the real estate field in the second half of the year, released important signals, and clarified the four key directions of the property market policy in the second half of the year.

　　First, "guarantee the delivery of buildings and stabilize people's livelihood".

　　Li Yujia, chief researcher of the Housing Policy Research Center of the Guangdong Provincial Urban Planning Institute, pointed out that the "guaranteed handover" first appeared at an important central meeting, demonstrating the country's starting point for the management of the real estate industry, first of all, people's livelihood security.

In the second half of the year, stabilizing people's livelihood will occupy the first place in real estate management.

　　In the past month or so, the "loan suspension" of real estate has been exposed in many places.

Chen Wenjing, market research director of the Index Division of the China Index Research Institute, pointed out that at present, the problem of "guaranteing the property handover" needs to be resolved urgently. Only when the "guaranteed property handover" is advanced as scheduled, the economy recovers stably, and confidence and expectations in the property market continue to improve, the real estate market can recover steadily in the second half of the year. .

　　Liu Lijie, a market analyst at the Shell Research Institute, said that ensuring the handover of buildings is related to the stability of society and people's livelihood.

To ensure a substantial resumption of work in the project, rebuilding the confidence of the owners of off-plan houses is the key.

It is worth noting that in the previous week, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission has repeatedly stated that more than 10 cities have also taken directional measures related to the delivery of buildings. It is expected that more places will have further clear solutions in the second half of the year.

　　Second, "stabilize the real estate market."

　　Since the beginning of this year, according to institutional statistics, more than 210 regions in China have introduced policies related to stabilizing the property market more than 550 times.

However, real estate indicators are still at historically low levels.

　　Xu Gao, assistant to the president of BOCI Securities, believes that the growth rate of real estate investment will enter a downward channel in the second half of 2021.

　　The real estate industry has a large volume and a long industrial chain, which can drive more than 50 upstream and downstream industries.

The stable development and virtuous circle of real estate are related to economic development and social stability.

The meeting put "stabilizing the real estate market" at the forefront of the property market-related expressions.

　　Thirdly, "use the policy toolbox with sufficient strength".

　　How to stabilize the real estate market, ensure the delivery of buildings, and stabilize people's livelihood?

The meeting made it clear that the policy toolbox should be fully utilized.

　　What are the tools in the policy toolbox?

Liu Lijie believes that the policy toolbox will include both demand-side support policies. In addition to lowering the threshold for house purchases and lowering the cost of house purchases such as purchase restrictions, loan restrictions, and sales restrictions, there is also room for more efforts to promote housing consumption, such as deed tax subsidies and housing subsidies; In the later stage, more emphasis will be placed on policy support on the supply side, such as the optimization of pre-sale fund supervision, and the rescue policy for housing enterprises.

　　In terms of guaranteeing the delivery of buildings, Li Yujia said that possible measures include: raising funds or issuing special bonds, acquiring problem projects into affordable housing, corporate bankruptcy and reorganization, mergers and acquisitions, etc.

However, he pointed out that there is no mature model for these programs or tools, and local governments should explore and promote their use on their own.

　　The meeting emphasized that the responsibility of local governments should be consolidated.

Yan Yuejin, research director of the Think Tank Center of the E-House Research Institute, said that it is relatively clear how and who will implement the "guaranteed handover".

Roughly including local governments taking the lead, commercial banks and other financial institutions closely cooperating, and real estate companies actively participating in the resumption of work.

　　Fourth, "housing and not speculating" is still the bottom line.

　　The meeting still emphasized "housing and not speculating."

Liu Lijie believes that under the background that the current market expectations are still weak, it is expected that local supportive policies will be further increased in the second half of the year, but "housing and not speculating" is still the bottom line.

　　Judging from the current market trend, according to the statistics of the China Index Research Institute, the transaction area of ​​key cities in July fell by more than 13% compared with that in June, and about 27% year-on-year. It will take time for the market to stabilize.

　　Chen Wenjing believes that in the second half of the year, local demand-side policies will continue to improve.

Among them, policies such as purchase restrictions, loan restrictions, and sales restrictions in second-tier cities may be further optimized.

　　However, experts believe that "city-specific policies" are still the main way to advance the policy, and the policy will not be turned in a one-size-fits-all manner, and once the hot city market overheats, corresponding tightening measures will still be introduced.

(Finish)