Author: Wu Simin
"In the past year, the housing bubble in Beijing's sky-high school districts is being burst. In Desheng, the unit price of second-hand houses listed in many 'old and small' communities has dropped by 6% to 8% compared with a year ago, and more than 90% of the houses are listed for 10% off the listed price."
Xiao Wang is the sales manager of an intermediary store in the Desheng School District. He talked about the current situation of the school district housing to the first financial reporter.
Desheng School District is located in Xicheng District, Beijing, which is one of the most concentrated areas of "Niu Xiao" and "Niu Zhong" in the city.
At the hottest time, the "old and broken" in the school district once experienced strange events such as "listing price exceeding 220,000 yuan/square meter" and "landlord chasing up 2 million yuan overnight", which was regarded as the price ceiling of Beijing school district housing.
However, since the "young to primary school" last year, the "Dongxihai" (Dongcheng, Xicheng and Haidian), regarded as Beijing's educational highlands, began to strictly implement the "multi-school division" policy.
Immediately afterwards, the second-hand housing market in hot school districts such as Desheng took a nosedive.
"Multi-school zoning" breaks the corresponding relationship between houses and school districts, which means that the certainty of "school district housing counterparts to famous schools" is reduced.
In 2021 and 2022, it is at the peak of school-age children's enrollment in Beijing.
In the past two years, many of the families who have purchased the corresponding school districts of first-class schools such as Haidian Zhongguancun No. 3 Primary School, Cuiwei Primary School, Xicheng Yuxiang Primary School, Experimental No. 2 Primary School, Dongcheng Shijia Experimental Primary School, etc., have many children who have been transferred to the general school in the school district. Small.
In hot school districts such as Desheng, Yuetan, Dongcheng and Pingli in Xicheng, the phenomenon of school-age children of newly-buying families being transferred out of the districts.
After the fall semester starts in September 2022, all areas in Beijing will carry out teacher exchange and rotation.
Some experts believe that the continued deepening of this educational reform measure will further dilute the concept of "famous school" and shake the value of "top school district housing".
However, in the opinion of many interviewed parents and real estate agents, with the improvement of the level of equalization of educational resources in the region and the narrowing of the gap between students in the school, the "faith in famous schools" will be broken, and the housing prices in the "Dongxihai" school district will also increase. There will be "shaving peaks and filling valleys".
However, after the bubble burst, as long as the contradiction between supply and demand of high-quality educational resources still exists, the overall housing prices in the school districts of the "East and West Sea" will continue to rise moderately.
Desheng transaction halved
"From 2016 to 2018, the Desheng School District was the hottest time."
According to Xiao Wang’s recollection, at that time, Haidian District had implemented the multi-school zoning policy, that is, new families who bought houses after January 1, 2019 would no longer correspond to fixed primary schools, while Xicheng District continued to have single-school zoning.
In addition, the teaching quality of Desheng School District and surrounding school districts was quite different at that time, and Desheng's "old and broken" were particularly popular.
At the high point, the annual transaction volume of second-hand housing in the Desheng School District could reach 2,000 units.
"But the golden age has passed. From July last year to July this year, the Desheng School District only sold 600 units," Wang said.
At the same time as unsalable sales, house prices have also fallen.
Deshengli District 1 is a well-known "old and broken" community of the counterpart "Niu Xiao" Yuxiang Primary School.
On the 27th, Yicai searched on the Shell Searching APP and found that a two-bedroom apartment of about 57 square meters was built in 1984 and faced south. The unit price was about 147,000 yuan per square meter, and the total price was about 8.43 million yuan.
This property was listed as the top of the "Deshengmen Hot List of Housing Listings" by the Shell Search APP, but it has not been traded for nearly 3 months after it was listed.
A real estate agent from a store in Lianjia Desheng told Yicai that in June last year, a one-bedroom apartment of about 40 square meters in the community was listed for 8.6 million yuan, and there was a premium of hundreds of thousands of yuan during the transaction.
According to the listing price of the house at that time (about 220,000 yuan / square meter), it has exceeded some houses in Financial Street.
However, after July, the market in the community plummeted, and the total transaction price of similar "old and broken" fell to more than 6 million, which is equivalent to a decrease of more than 2 million from a month ago.
In the process of falling house prices, home buyers still have room for bargaining.
According to the monthly transaction records of the Desheng School District provided by the real estate agent in the past year, since July last year, 90% of the second-hand houses were sold at a lower price than the listed price.
Among them, residential areas with relatively new age, such as Sunshine Lijing, have less room for buyers to negotiate prices; and for "old and broken", the transaction price of a suite is roughly 100,000 to 400,000 yuan lower than the listed price.
Among them, in Deshengli District 1, there have been cases where the transaction price was 800,000 yuan lower than the listed price.
"In one year, the transaction price of second-hand housing in Desheng School District has fluctuated many times. As of this month (July), the so-called 'old and broken' in the school district has probably rebounded to about 7 million yuan, but the overall decline is still there." The real estate agent said.
Looking back at the second-hand housing market in the Desheng School District since 2019, July 2021 is a key point when the market turns from hot to cold.
Behind this change is the new multi-school zoning policy called "7.31" by Xicheng parents.
According to the "Implementation Opinions on Enrollment in the Compulsory Education Stage of Xicheng District in 2020" issued by the Xicheng District Education Commission, after July 31, 2020, school-age children from families who have purchased a house in Xicheng District and obtained a certificate of property ownership will no longer be eligible for admission to primary schools. Correspondingly, the schools that are registered for admission to zoning are all enrolled in the school district or adjacent school districts in a multi-school zoning method.
But the "7.31" New Deal really took effect from last year.
In 2021, in Desheng, Yuetan, Financial Street (commonly known as "Jindeyue"), Taobai, Shichahai, Zhanzhan Road and other Xicheng school districts, before the "7.31" New Deal, buy a house in Xicheng and obtain a house property certificate Families (children of school age still meet the "single school zoning" policy under the principle of proximity), their children will be assigned to other primary schools in the district because the number of places in the corresponding primary school is full.
For popular school districts such as Desheng and Yuetan, many families who have received housing in Xicheng District after "July 31" are faced with the dilemma of being transferred out of the district.
In this year's admissions process from young to primary schools in Xicheng District, the above situation repeated itself.
The transfer of students is related to the number of school-age children and the number of places.
Since January 1, 2016, Beijing has implemented a comprehensive two-child policy in the whole city, and the number of new births has increased.
In 2017, the number of new-born people in Beijing was 171,300, the highest since the founding of New China.
It wasn't until 2020 that the trend started to pull back noticeably.
In other words, in the next three years (2023-2025), the number of school-age children in Beijing’s “young to primary school” will remain high.
In addition, there are many buyers in the period when Desheng housing prices are at a high point. Under the background of the implementation of "one degree in six years" in Xicheng District, it means that "quasi-Xicheng parents" who have children's enrollment needs in the short term will also face the school district. Situations where degrees are heavily occupied.
A parent who intends to buy a house in Xicheng told reporters that in the parent group, there are many Desheng parents who have newly purchased a house in the past two years and whose children have entered school this year. , and will also bear the risk of depreciation of the purchased "old and broken" and the pressure of renting across school districts.
According to Yicai’s research, in the past year, “old and broken” in school districts such as “Jindeyue”, as well as small-sized houses such as Haidian Wanliu Hummingbird Home and Puhui Nanli are purely used to “occupy pits” , its trading volume has fallen sharply, and no one even cares about price cuts.
However, some parents also told reporters that in the "East-West Sea", except for the "old and broken" prices with high premiums returning to rationality, the overall second-hand school district housing prices in the administrative area have not loosened.
"Parents are more likely to adjust their choices within the area. My child will go to school in 2024, and the Desheng School District will not dare to buy it even if the price has dropped. However, when I inquired about the surrounding Xinjiekou School District, the house price has risen by 20% this semester." One " Quasi-Western City,” the parent said.
The interviewed families who only need a degree after 2025 said that in the next few years, the education reform policy and changes in the quality of education between school districts will still face uncertainty, and second-hand housing prices in hot school districts may continue to decline. .
Therefore, I will choose to wait and see for a while.
The spillover effect of top school districts is beginning to show
Yicai.com noticed that in many intermediary stores in Desheng School District, the sales mentality and speech skills of real estate agents have changed.
For example, agents are generally more attentive to families in need of a degree after 2025.
"At that time, a degree from Desheng should be enough, at least it's unlikely to leave the district. Buying a house first will give you an advantage."
If a family is in a hurry to buy a house in the past 1 to 3 years, Desheng's agents will bluntly say that "there is basically no hope of enrolling in the school district", and then start to sell second-hand houses in the surrounding school districts.
Among them, the most recommended school district is Xinjiekou.
Some intermediaries also said that, excluding the school district attributes, Xinjiekou’s geographical location is better than that of Desheng.
Affected by the spillover effect of Desheng School District, Xinjiekou is one of the school districts in Xicheng with the highest increase in the average price of second-hand housing in the past year.
On the Shell Searching APP, as of the 27th, the school district had a “old and broken” about 26 square meters built in 1958 with a unit price of more than 167,000 yuan per square meter.
"Although there are not many options for primary schools, the Xinjiekou school district is small in size, with sufficient places, and the pressure of allocating places for junior high school students is relatively light. Most of the families who settled after the '7.31' this year went to the corresponding schools for housing, including the "small high school junior high school". 'Zhicheng Primary School, which has an 80% straight-up rate. In addition, this year's new Tie No. 2 Middle School is a key middle school in Xicheng District." A real estate agent told reporters.
Compared with the "old and broken", in the Xinjiekou school district, the price of housing that has both the attributes of the school district and can meet the needs of self-occupation has increased more significantly.
Xifu Taoyuan is a community built in 2005 with mainly improved housing in the school district.
First Finance and Economics learned that in Xifu Taoyuan, the unit price of a three-bedroom improved house of about 140 square meters has also reached more than 160,000 yuan per square meter.
"Within a year, the listed unit price of second-hand houses in this community has risen by more than 12%. The pace of transactions is also very fast, and there are often no houses to sell." An agent familiar with the community said.
Not only in Xicheng District, but also in Dongcheng District and Haidian District, where multi-school zoning was implemented earlier, more and more parents abandoned the idea of “playing small”, and instead pursued middle-level primary schools, and even issued " Buying a house is only to get an admission ticket."
With the change of buyer's psychological expectations, the top school districts of "East and West Sea" have fallen from the altar, while the second-class schools and school districts that were once covered up by the light of "Niu Xiao" have become a sweet pastry.
In Dongcheng, housing prices in the school district have fluctuated less in recent years compared to Xicheng and Haidian, due to the greater educational reforms and the earlier implementation of balanced development measures in the compulsory education stage.
From the transaction point of view, an agent in Dongcheng District said that since the division of multiple schools, the top Niu Xiao in the area, Shijia Experimental Primary School, has a high possibility of being transferred, and the strength of the primary schools in the school district is different, and the popularity has weakened. .
In the past year, the new neighborhoods of the primary school, such as Douban Hu, have basically no premium, and the listed price of a two-bedroom apartment of more than 70 square meters has remained at about 9 million yuan.
In contrast, in school districts with more equal primary and secondary schools, such as Anjiao and Hepingli, the average price of second-hand housing rose by about 8% to 10% from June last year to June this year.
For example, in the neighborhood of Fuxue Hutong Primary School in Anjiao School District, the listed price of a two-bedroom apartment of more than 70 square meters has risen to more than 11 million yuan.
"It is worth noting that this year's multi-school scribing in Dongcheng District unexpectedly opened the 'True Blind Box Era' - there are two types of situations, 'Niu Xiao's allocation to general Xiao' and 'General Xiao's allocation to Niu Xiao'. For example, high-quality schools such as Shijia Experiment and Fuxue Hutong Primary School are rare in the list of adjustment schools." The Dongcheng real estate agent said that since July, most of the parents who consulted the second-hand housing in Dongcheng District expressed their concern for the promotion of young children in the district. The small "random faction" has psychological expectations, and buying a house is more to get the admission ticket of Dongcheng Education.
The city's teacher rotation impact geometry
In order to vigorously promote the high-quality and balanced development of compulsory education, the relevant person in charge of the Beijing Municipal Education Commission recently made it clear at a press conference that after the start of the autumn semester in September this year, all districts in Beijing will carry out teacher exchange and rotation.
As soon as the news came out, parents were concerned about whether the high-quality educational resources of "East and West Sea" would flow among the 16 districts.
However, according to the statement of the Beijing Municipal Education Commission and the previous pilot work, job rotation in the district is the main type of education reform.
Chu Zhaohui, a researcher at the Chinese Academy of Educational Sciences, told Yicai that the implementation cost of job rotation within the region is low and it will not increase the commuting burden of teachers. It will also face inconsistency in the management and evaluation of personnel in the education and employment systems of various districts, making it more difficult to implement.
Therefore, at this stage, there is a high probability that the rotation of teachers in Beijing will not break the administrative division.
Then, with the continuous advancement of teachers' job rotation, will this education reform measure become a cooling effect for the second-hand school districts in the "East West Sea" after the "school quotas to school", multi-school divisions, and six-year degrees. Another straw?
Chu Zhaohui believes that teacher rotation is conducive to solving the problem of redistribution of high-quality educational resources, but it will not bring too much change to the distribution pattern of public educational resources in the city. Equalization of educational resources.
A teacher from Haidian District told reporters that as early as five or six years ago, Beijing realized the full coverage of school district management and group-based school running.
Today, the district education committee has also continuously strengthened the allocation of teachers and hardware support for ordinary and weak teachers. Therefore, this new policy of teacher rotation has not caused much splash among parents.
"As the old saying goes, 'Meng's mother moves three times'. Compared with the flow of individual teachers, parents pay more attention to the overall quality of students and the educational heritage formed by the school for a long time."
However, under the rotation of teachers, parents' pursuit of top school districts has gradually faded, and their anxiety about buying a house has also begun to ease.
Many parents interviewed believed that more intensive teacher rotation would increase their confidence in the structural reform of the education supply side, which in turn would affect their choice of schools and their understanding of school district housing; The overall educational advantages of the "East and West Seas" may be further highlighted, and the attractiveness of these areas to them will continue to increase.
"Previously, when parents choose school district housing, they first consider which school district has the most average educational resources, which is why 'Jin Deyue' is sought after. Now, whether it is the source of students or teachers, the gap between the districts is narrowing, so give up 'Jin Deyue' ', it seems that it is not so difficult to accept the qualifications of other Xicheng school districts through smaller economic costs." A Xicheng parent told Yicai.com.