China News Service, July 29 (Zhongxin Finance and Economics reporter Zuo Yukun) "The house in my hometown seems to be really cheap." Xiaoyu, an Anhui native who works in Shanghai, recently felt it.
The continuous outflow of population and high inventory have made the real estate in some third- and fourth-tier cities in a state of oversupply for a long time.
In order to alleviate the fatigue, some third- and fourth-tier cities have entered a government-level "drop limit order", which is in parallel with the "fancy promotion" at the real estate company level.
Data map: A view of the city.
Photo by Wang Xiaobin
“The house price has dropped a lot”
After graduating and working for five years, Xiao Yu, who had saved a sum of money, began to consider whether to buy a property in Shanghai or his hometown.
Xiaoyu's agent in her hometown told her that the house price in her hometown had dropped a lot.
The intermediary has a house that he intends to sell. It was purchased at a unit price of 4,000 yuan around 2016. In 2018, it rose to 9,000 yuan at the most expensive time. When it was sold, it was adjusted to 7,000 yuan this year, and it was adjusted to 6,000 yuan not long ago.
"In my hometown around 2018, the house price did increase by 2,000-3,000 yuan, but the average monthly income of our hometown was only 4,000 yuan, and the house price was 8,000 yuan. It was terrifying. During that time, developers built a lot of houses, but they didn't keep them. Young people in big cities, now the price has dropped to 2017 or even lower,” the agent said.
Xiaoyu's friends in his hometown finally sold the new house that had been vacant for five years this year.
Five years ago, I bought it for 540,000 yuan, and this year, I sold it for 560,000 yuan. According to my friend, I lost about 80,000 to 90,000 yuan in interest for five years. I feel really uncomfortable.
Xiaoyu asked a friend why he didn't rent out the house for decoration.
A friend said that there is no need for renting in my hometown. The annual rent is 15,000 yuan, and the rent for five years cannot keep up with the decoration cost.
"It seems that Shanghai's housing prices are stable, at least not falling." Xiaoyu remembers that when he first graduated five years ago, he saw a small two-bedroom house with a price of more than 2 million yuan. Now a similar house costs 400 yuan. million.
The continuous decline in housing prices is also a pain in many third- and fourth-tier cities recently.
On July 15, the National Bureau of Statistics announced the changes in the sales price of commercial housing in 70 large and medium-sized cities in June. The second-hand housing in Mudanjiang fell by 10.4% year-on-year, and it was also the only city with a double-digit decline. The year-on-year decline was also 10.5%.
Following Hegang's "house prices fell back to cabbage prices", Mudanjiang, a northeastern city, once again went out of the circle because of housing prices, and there was also news in the market that "the house prices in Mudanjiang fell back to 15 years ago, 50,000 suites".
Regarding the reasons for the "diving" of housing prices, the Heilongjiang Provincial Bureau of Statistics stated bluntly in the "Analysis Report on the Current Situation of Population Development in Mudanjiang City" released in 2020: Mudanjiang City's economy is underdeveloped, the total economic volume is small, the industrial structure is unreasonable, and the level of urbanization is unreasonable. It is not high, and there is a lack of major projects that can affect the city's economic development, resulting in a lack of attractiveness in terms of remuneration, welfare, and treatment, which exacerbates the outflow of population, especially the outflow of young and middle-aged people.
Wang Xiaoqiang, chief analyst of Zhuge Housing Search Data Research Center, said that in the first half of the year, the real estate market in first- and second-tier cities, under the support of the industry, showed signs of market recovery; high.
According to the statistics of the China Index Research Institute, as of the end of May 2022, based on the average monthly sales area in the past 6 months, the third- and fourth-tier representative cities have a clearance cycle of 23.4 months, which is 6.1 months longer than the end of 2021. big.
Data map: A residential area under construction.
(Photo by drone) Photo by China News Agency reporter Lv Ming
Go left and right under pressure
What kind of support is needed to stabilize housing prices?
Third- and fourth-tier cities have also begun to explore continuously.
According to statistics from Centaline Real Estate, as of July 25, there have been more than 550 real estate regulation in 2022, an increase of nearly 70% year-on-year, and real estate regulation continues to set new historical records.
Among them, third- and fourth-tier cities have played a pioneering role in stabilizing the property market in multiple directions.
After sorting out, it is found that hard-core measures such as reducing the down payment ratio, lowering the mortgage interest rate, and issuing house purchase subsidies are all "first" in the third- and fourth-tier cities, and then progress to the first- and second-tier cities.
But in the face of the property market, which has not improved much, the "decrease limit order" has become a straightforward move.
On July 19, Mianning County, Liangshan Yi Autonomous Prefecture, Sichuan Province issued a notice that within 10 days of obtaining the pre-sale permit or the current sale record, the price of the listing should be publicized at one time. The public price should be consistent with the reported price, and the actual transaction price should not be higher than the record price. , and at the same time can not be sold more than 20% below the record price.
On July 4, Guangdong Zhongshan issued a document stating that the price of a new house can be adjusted 3 months after the declaration, and the reduction rate each time does not exceed 5% of the previous price, and it joins the ranks of "limited price".
Since August 2021, after Yueyang, Hunan became the first city to issue a "drop limit order", more than 20 cities have joined the team in the past year.
Among them, in addition to a few second-tier cities, third- and fourth-tier cities, including Zhuzhou in Hunan, Taizhou in Jiangsu, and Anqing in Anhui, are still the main force.
The issuance of the "drop limit order" is essentially out of stability considerations. In recent years, it is not uncommon for homeowners to be dissatisfied due to the price reduction of real estate.
However, in the face of the reality of difficult sales and high debt pressure for real estate companies, fancy promotions of "curve price reduction" have also appeared in many places.
From wheat exchange, garlic exchange, watermelon exchange, peach exchange, agricultural products lined up to flood into the property market this summer, but the staff at the sales office bluntly stated that they did not need garlic and peach delivery. It is also just a "tool man" for the hidden price reduction of real estate companies.
Recently, Jiangxi Zhangshu intermediary has a financial reward of 1,000 yuan for each house sold, and Hebei Chengde can enjoy the same policies for residential water, gas, and heating prices when purchasing self-occupied apartment projects. Line cities are created.
"House prices are linked to land prices. It is strictly forbidden for developers to cut prices to prevent land price declines from becoming the core content of the 'decree-limiting order' of local governments." Bai Wenxi, chief economist of IPG China, said that the lack of liquidity in real estate companies has caused liquidity Under the pressure, not "violating" the price reduction promotion has become a new way of marketing for real estate enterprises.
The price reduction attempts of fancy promotions and the bottom line of the "drop limit order" seem to be two opposite behaviors appearing in the same third- and fourth-tier markets, but they come from the original intention of increasing sales, destocking, and stabilizing house prices on both sides.
With the gradual relaxation of thresholds, favorable policies and the sinking of employment opportunities, third- and fourth-tier cities are also looking forward to undertaking industrial and population transfers from surrounding large cities, waiting for an opportunity to accelerate the development of economic fundamentals and support the rise in housing prices.
(Finish)