Author: Ma Yifan
China's 1,472 county towns and 394 county-level cities accommodate a total of 250 million permanent residents. The county-level property market is a trillion-level market that cannot be ignored.
Although low-energy third- and fourth-tier cities and counties are under more pressure during the downturn in the real estate market, a series of data shows that the housing prices of "head counties" are still strong.
The first financial reporter combed through data from multiple platforms and found that as of June this year, the number of county towns with housing prices exceeding 20,000 yuan per square meter has reached 8, and the number of county towns with an average price exceeding 10,000 yuan has reached 117. Among the top ten counties in terms of housing prices, Housing prices in more than half of the counties rose year-on-year.
In May of this year, the national level issued the "Opinions on Promoting Urbanization Construction with County Towns as Important Carriers", which means that another round of large-scale development of county construction is about to start.
Ma Qianli, senior research director of the Crane Research Center, said that satellite counties around first-tier cities, wealthy counties with a solid industrial foundation, and counties with much room for improvement in urbanization will usher in real estate market development opportunities.
Housing prices in many counties continue to soar
In May 2021, "the sharp rise in housing prices in the county" suddenly became a hot spot of public opinion.
At that time, Xinhua News Agency issued a document approving the “fake fire is too prosperous” in the county’s urban property market. The average price of commercial housing in more than 100 counties across the country exceeded 10,000 yuan, and the price of some ordinary small counties was close to 20,000 yuan per square meter.
After a lapse of more than a year, the county town real estate in Henan has engaged in "garlic and wheat house exchange" marketing, and the civil servants in Yulin, Guangxi have to go to the village to sell houses during the holidays. Is the county town real estate market already cold?
Yicai reviewed the data from platforms such as China Housing Price Market Network (sponsored by China Real Estate Association) and found that the rising trend of housing prices in most "head counties" has not changed.
As of July 2022, housing prices in more than half of the 10 counties with the highest housing prices rose year-on-year.
According to the China Housing Price Quotes Network, the housing prices in Yongkang, Wenling, Kunshan, Yueqing, Tongxiang, and Deqing were higher than those in the same period last year, while Lingshui, Yiwu, Wanning, and Jiangshan fell year-on-year.
Due to the difference in statistical caliber, the real estate macro data search and query tool "Aggregate Data" shows that, as of June this year, among the top ten counties with housing prices, 8 counties have experienced year-on-year increases in house prices, and only Lingshui and Lingshui, which ranked first and second Yiwu housing prices fell.
Although there are differences between the two data platforms, in summary, the number of house price increases in the top ten counties outweighed the number of declines, and the increase in individual counties is not small.
For example, the average house price in Yongkang, Jinhua reached 24,679 yuan/square meter, up 15.05% year-on-year; the average price in Wenling, Taizhou was 24,275 yuan/square meter, up 9.70% year-on-year; the average price in Suzhou Kunshan was 23,446 yuan/square meter, up 10.07% year-on-year ; Wenzhou Yueqing was 21,516 yuan / square meter, a year-on-year increase of 7.25%; Huzhou Deqing's average house price reached 18,416 yuan / square meter, a year-on-year increase of 11.51%.
In addition, although the housing price in Lingshui, Hainan has fallen, as of now, there is still 33,376 yuan per square meter, a year-on-year decrease of only 1.2%. Lingshui County is still the only county seat in my country with housing prices exceeding 30,000.
Among the top ten counties in terms of housing prices, only Yiwu, Zhejiang Province, saw the largest decline, down 8.14% year-on-year. The current housing price is 25,690 yuan per square meter.
As of June this year, the number of county towns with housing prices exceeding 20,000 yuan per square meter has reached 8, and the number of county towns with an average price exceeding 10,000 yuan has reached 117, both of which surpassed the 6 and 103 counties in the same period last year.
Even in Minquan County, Shangqiu, Henan, famous for its "wheat house change", its house prices have not fallen in the past year.
According to the China Housing Price Network, the average residential price in Minquan County in the past month was 5,333 yuan per square meter, up 6.09% year-on-year.
Anjuke shows that the current average residential price in Minquan County is 5,105 yuan per square meter, which is close to the data of China's housing price market network.
In addition, the Anjuke website shows that the housing price of Minquan was only 3,647 yuan/square meter in 2018, and has since risen to 4,626 yuan/square meter in 2021, and the housing price has risen by 10.35% in the last year.
New urbanization brings opportunities to county towns
The county's real estate data seems to be a hidden corner.
There are no counties in the 70-city housing price report released by the Bureau of Statistics every month, and the 100-city real estate reports released by many research institutions rarely include county data. , including 4 first-tier cities, 32 second-tier cities, and 64 third- and fourth-tier cities, most of which are prefecture-level cities, with only a handful of county towns and county-level cities.
According to data from the China Government Network, as of the end of 2021, China has 1,472 county towns and 394 county-level cities with a total permanent population of 250 million people. The number of counties and county-level cities accounts for about 65% of the county-level administrative divisions. It accounts for nearly 30% of the country's urban resident population.
Due to the strong regional and non-standard nature of the real estate industry, the county market is also an independent and distinctive track.
Last year, the State Council Information Office released a white paper titled "China's Comprehensive Well-off Society", which pointed out that from 2016 to 2020, about 100 million rural migrants will settle in cities and towns.
During this period, the county real estate market developed rapidly, and the brand real estate companies that first researched and sunk into the county market once ate enough dividends.
For the property market in many county towns, the arrival of Country Garden is a symbolic event.
Many people think that Country Garden is mainly engaged in third- and fourth-tier business. In fact, Country Garden is interested in population mobility under the new urbanization strategy. Therefore, from 2016 to 2020, Country Garden has rapidly sunk, and its layout covers 1,334 counties/townships. .
The last round of county development dividends was as well as Zhongliang Holdings, a dark horse real estate company started in Wenzhou. An executive of the company once told Yicai that in 2016, when the company judged the direction and trend, it had opened for three days. It will be discussed, and finally it is found that sinking the third and fourth lines is more beneficial.
Today, a major opportunity similar to the development of the county in 2016 is in front of us.
In May of this year, the General Office of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the General Office of the State Council issued the "Opinions on Promoting Urbanization Construction with County Towns as Important Carriers", which proposed that by 2025, urbanization construction with county towns as important carriers will make important progress, cultivate Characteristic and advantageous industries in the county seat, improve the municipal facility system, strengthen the supply of public services, improve the quality of the living environment, and promote the connection and complementation of county and rural functions.
On July 12, the National Development and Reform Commission issued the "14th Five-Year Plan" New Urbanization Implementation Plan, which once again emphasized that it will "promote the urbanization construction with county towns as an important carrier", select a group of well-conditioned counties for key development, and promote county towns. Improve the quality and efficiency of industrial supporting facilities, upgrade the file and upgrade of municipal public facilities, increase the standard and area of public service facilities, upgrade and expand environmental infrastructure, and connect and complement the functions of counties and villages.
Regarding these documents, Ma Qianli, senior research director of Kerui Research Center, explained that the urbanization rate of first- and second-tier cities in my country has reached a high level, and the development of urbanization is facing a slowdown. In the future population flow, counties are mentioned more. important location.
Ma Qianli said that while the "rural-urban mobility" remains unchanged, the scope of population mobility has shifted from inter-provincial to intra-provincial mobility.
Therefore, it is urgent to strengthen the county construction.
Gao Guoli, director of the China Urban and Small Town Reform and Development Center, also believes: "County towns with better resource endowments, industrial bases, and transportation conditions can rely on their own advantages to develop characteristic pillar industries, which will be the best way to absorb agricultural migrants and urbanize them nearby. important carrier."
However, some research institutions are not entirely optimistic about the future of the county property market.
The “Report on the Survey of Residents’ Willingness to Buy Homes in Hundred Cities” recently released by the China Index Academy shows that the current urbanization rate in my country has exceeded 63%, and the growth rate of urbanization has gradually slowed down. However, the number of residents in the third and fourth tiers and county towns with weak energy levels and shrinking population with more than one set of housing accounts for a relatively high proportion, and the demand for new housing in the future will be relatively limited.
The survey shows that there is a big gap between the willingness to buy a home in first-tier cities and county towns. In the past month, the willingness to buy a house in first-tier cities has risen to 65%, while county towns are basically releasing restrictions on purchases and loans, and at the same time increasing promotion and publicity to encourage home buyers. In this case, the willingness of homebuyers to buy a home increased from 17% to 30%.
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