Vladimir Putin wanted to move NATO away from his borders.

But he has pushed Sweden and Finland into allied arms.

He longed to divide the EU, but barring a few Hungarian attempts, it has been more united than in any previous crisis.

And when the fifth anniversary of the war in Ukraine is celebrated, he maneuvers to provoke a cold storm on European soil next winter.

The response to what in Brussels is called "energy blackmail" was given this Tuesday by the 27 energy ministers

, meeting in an extraordinary Council that sought to close a gas saving agreement.

Less than a week after the European Commission presented its proposal 'Save gas to save the summer', the EU has reached a political agreement.

Of course, the initiative has been very decaffeinated in comparison with the original text.

The 15% gas consumption reduction target is maintained between August 1 and March 31

.

But, for now, it is based on a voluntary basis.

There will also be a cacophony of measures because each national government will be in charge of drawing the roadmap to reduce gas demand.

For its part,

the European Council is keeping its ace up its sleeve

: it will be able to declare a state of "[energy] alert in the Union", which would radically change the scenario by making that 15% reduction compulsory.

But not for everyone.

Because "exception" has been the term that has prevailed in the appointment.

The agreement includes a string of cases that grant concessions or exempt countries from the final objective, such as being an energy island, having good interconnections or being closely synchronized with Russian infrastructure.

The ultimate goal is to reach winter with gas reserves at maximum.

EXEMPT

But for now,

only the islanders, Ireland, Cyprus and Malta, are automatically exempt from the requirement

because they are totally disconnected from their community partners.

The rest is at the mercy "of the circumstances", explain community sources.

They will have to defend before Brussels their "need" to avail themselves of these derogations.

Grosso modo

, the fine print of the agreement must now be translated into specific thresholds, a calendar and a very arduous technical review work that avoids legal loopholes or holes that act as a bridge towards selfishness between States.

But the great unknown and the main dilemma is whether this step will be necessary to save the winter.

With a majority of countries potentially eligible for these derogations, will the EU succeed in shielding itself from Putin's blackmail?

The base scenario in Brussels is that the Russian president will completely turn off the gas tap to Europe.

In this scenario, the European Commission estimates that Europeans should save some 45,000 million cubic meters in the next eight months.

But with the relaxations of the initial proposal, the figure has already decreased.

Community sources defend that despite the relaxation, winter in Europe will be safe.

This accommodation to suit the particularities of each country has been the price to pay to reach consensus.

Which has not been.

Viktor Orbán's Hungary, the usual containment dam in European unanimity, has been the only one to oppose it.

The legislation, which still needs to be ratified through a written procedure, only required a qualified majority,

so this time, the

enfant terrible

of the European project has not held the conclusions captive.

The appointment arrived with very opposed positions.

With past sensitivities marked by the north-south struggle that threatened to erupt.

But the best positioned countries, such as Spain and Portugal, have closed ranks around "solidarity" and "unity".

Two words that have gained strength within the community as the energy battle with Russia has increased.

Others like Germany, which in recent years bet all its cards on Russian gas, have intoned a threat of 'mea culpa'.

"Now we are even more obliged to our caring neighbors to correct the mistakes of the past (...) Solidarity is not a one-way street. The unity of Europe benefits everyone and everyone contributes to it", he stated through from Twitter Sven Giegold, German State Secretary for Economy and Climate.

New cut of the Nord Stream I

The appointment has concluded a few hours before the

Nord Stream I gas pipeline, the main pipeline that feeds gas to Europe through Siberia, reduces its supply by 20%.

It is the second cut in recent weeks.

The state Gazprom alleges "technical problems", but everyone in Brussels agrees that it is "a weapon and blackmail" that seeks to divide, weaken and put pressure on some Europeans still very dependent on Russian gas.

The stoppages are a constant, which were already noticeable in the prelude to the war.

"

Today's is a decisive step to face the threat of a total interruption of gas

by Putin", celebrated Ursula von der Leyen, president of the European Commission.

The German has also made a nod to the past.

On a day like today, Mario Draghi pronounced his 'Whatever it takes', the three magic words that saved the euro.

Ten years later, the Berlaymont tenant has republished them to warn Moscow that the EU will do "

whatever it takes

to guarantee its energy supply and protect its consumers, whether they are homes or industries".

It is not the most usual scenario for Spain to arrive with confidence at a European

event and with a punch on the table.

The country has been leading the energy battle in Brussels for a year now, a fight that has had the headwind of war.

Electricity prices were a lesser evil last summer in the community capital.

But record inflation and supply shortages caused by the war in Ukraine have made energy the crisis of greatest concern under the 12-star banner.

And, here, Spain arrives with an advantage over most of its community partners.

Its park has about 50% clean energy, it is not very dependent on Russian hydrocarbons, its natural gas stores are well above the European average and it has very advanced gas storage and transportation infrastructures.

Teresa Ribera, vice president in charge of Ecological Transition, returns to Madrid with the exemptions she had been claiming.

Her calculations go through

reducing gas consumption in Spain by around "7 or 8%", half of the goal set by the Community Executive.

"It is not about reducing for the sake of reducing, but about finding the best ways to get gas to the countries that need it most," Teresa Ribera, vice president in charge of Energy Transition, defended at the subsequent press conference.

Spain re-exports 20% of its liquefied natural gas to other community partners and calculates that it could redirect 5,600 million cubic meters in the coming months.

Conforms to The Trust Project criteria

Know more

  • Europe

  • European Comission

  • Goal

  • Theresa Rivera

  • Ukraine

  • Twitter

  • Ursula von der Leyen

  • mario draghi

  • NATO

  • Sweden

  • Finland

  • UPyD

  • Germany

  • Ireland

  • Cyprus

  • Hungary

  • Portugal

  • Russia