India will probably be the most populous country in the world by next year.

Then, as the United Nations predicted in the middle of this week, it will overtake China in terms of population.

When the time comes, Indian government advisers will announce this as good news as well, news of power, influence and “demographic dividends”: by 2050 there will be 1.668 billion Indians, while the number of Chinese has fallen to 1.317 billion .

Christopher Hein

Business correspondent for South Asia/Pacific based in Singapore.

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This bodes well for strong economic growth.

The middle class is growing and with it purchasing power – and the demand for higher quality products and services.

India could be a good investment for investors.

High unemployment

But as good as the news of the growing population may sound to some ears, it initially announces dramatic conditions.

Because the “biggest democracy on earth”, as the country is often called, is already unable to find anywhere near enough work for its people.

And she takes care of them badly.

By 2050, an additional 183 million Indians will join the workforce.

“Unemployment is already at its highest level in 45 years, and there is poor health care and education.

This makes the demographic dividend a risk,” warns economist Neethi P from the Indian Institute for Human Settlements in Bangalore.

The United Nations points out that of the world's top ten countries, India ranks second or third on most social indicators, almost always behind neighboring Bangladesh - long considered the world's poorhouse.

Regardless of whether it is child mortality, life expectancy or the mortality rate for newborns – among the major countries, Pakistan and Nigeria are at best worse off than India.

The controversial prime minister

This is bad news for Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who is heating up the country with new slogans that are driving more and more university teachers, representatives of civil society and critical thinkers abroad.

In 2014 he won an overwhelming election victory as an economic reformer and had promised the rapid rise of the subcontinent.

A land reform failed after a year-long protest by the farmers.

He pushed through a tax reform, but it got stuck at state level.

The government had toilets, power grids, roads and railway lines built, it paid higher aid to the poor - but it was never enough.

In the state of Bihar, ten million people have just applied for 35,000 advertised jobs.

Most of Modi's announcements evaporated.

The poor suffered after he had the cash withdrawn overnight, they suffered even more when he brutally underestimated the corona pandemic twice.

To this day, the government does not recognize the official casualty statistics from the World Health Organization.

India's leadership does not like to see statistics, especially when they are critical.

“The number of those of working age increased by 115.5 million between 2017 and 2021, but the workforce grew by only 7.7 million,” warns scientist Neethi P. The United Nations sounded the alarm in 2019 because almost half of all Indian youth will not be trained to be employed in 2030.

And yet tens, sometimes hundreds of thousands cheer when Modi performs at home and abroad.

On the one hand, because it gives India a face that restores dignity to the suffering subcontinent.

On the other hand, because the Indian middle and upper classes benefit from Modi.

The group of engineers and developers, managers and senior civil servants, estimated at around 100 million people, is gaining ground in the new India.

She enjoys a better infrastructure than ever before and dreams the dreams that Modi tells.