After the reversal of pressure, can China's industry continue to grow?

(Mid-Year Economic Observation) After the reversal of pressure, can China's industry continue to grow?

　　China News Agency, Beijing, July 24 (Reporter Liu Yuying) In the first half of 2022, China's industry will be under pressure and reversed and will resume growth.

Can this trend continue in the second half of the year?

　　Data from the National Bureau of Statistics shows that from January to June 2022, the added value of China's industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 3.4% year-on-year. After falling to -2.9% in April, it turned positive growth of 0.7% in May, and accelerated to 3.9% in June. , out of a V-shaped situation.

Among them, exports and investment have played a driving role.

　　Fu Baozong, director of the Industrial Office of the Industrial Institute of the China Academy of Macroeconomics, said that in terms of indicators such as added value and profits, the industrial economy was under great pressure in the first half of the year.

This includes frequent epidemics, high fluctuations in commodity prices caused by international geopolitical conflicts, and certain impacts and impacts on logistics and transportation. The industry's 3.4% growth was hard-won.

　　Under pressure, the industry is clearly differentiated.

In the first half of the year, the upstream industry was affected by the rise in commodity prices, and the growth rate and profit were relatively high; the midstream industry was double squeezed. On the one hand, the upstream raw material and energy prices rose, and on the other hand, the downstream demand transmission mechanism was not smooth, which affected the efficiency of enterprises; Downstream products are also differentiated, and industries such as textiles are under great pressure.

　　At the same time, the industrial economic structure continued to be optimized.

In the first half of the year, the added value of high-tech manufacturing above designated size was 6.2 percentage points higher than the added value of all industries above designated size; the equipment manufacturing industry contributed more than 70% to the overall industrial growth in June; the sales of new energy vehicles in the first half of the year were 2.6 million, a year-on-year increase of 2.6 million. It increased by 1.2 times, and the penetration rate reached 21.6%.

　　By June, the impact of the epidemic gradually subsided, the industrial economy accelerated in June, and the environment facing the industrial economy was also improving.

　　First, commodity prices have fallen.

The recent decline in the prices of some international bulk products such as copper, nickel and zinc has pushed China's PPI (factory price index of industrial producers) to show a trend of gradual decline.

　　Guo Liyan, director of the Comprehensive Situation Office of the China Academy of Macroeconomics, said that the monthly growth rate of domestic upstream raw material prices has declined, and the cost pressure borne by mid- and downstream manufacturing enterprises is expected to gradually ease.

　　Second, consumer demand has improved.

Guan Bing, director of the Institute of Industrial Economics of CCID Research Institute, said that with the improvement of the national epidemic prevention and control situation and the introduction of consumption promotion policies, in June, the total retail sales of social consumer goods increased by 3.1% year-on-year, and the decline in May narrowed compared with April. On the basis of the change from falling to rising, the recovery of consumption will help alleviate the imbalance between supply and demand, and provide more sufficient development space for production.

　　Third, the service industry has begun to improve.

Guan Bing believes that the service industry production index in June increased by 1.3% year-on-year, a substantial increase of 6.4 percentage points from May, and achieved positive growth since March.

The recovery of the service industry is conducive to boosting market confidence and driving the development of some manufacturing industries.

　　At present, China's official deployment to stimulate consumption "combination punch", promote consumption in key areas such as automobiles and home appliances, and continue to make efforts in new infrastructure, green and low-carbon transformation, etc., all of which will help enhance the resilience of industrial economic development.

　　Guo Liyan believes that China's macro policy "toolbox" is well-stocked, the "four new" (new technologies, new industries, new business forms, new models) economic support is more powerful, with the resource advantages of a super-large market, and stable economic growth has multiple favorable conditions. .

　　Regarding the uncertainty in the second half of the year, Zhong Zhengsheng, chief economist of Ping An Securities, believes that manufacturing investment has played an important role in the steady growth of the industry since the beginning of this year. Since real estate and exports have a greater impact on manufacturing investment, future manufacturing investment will face To reduce pressure, it is necessary to do a good job of precise policy support to stabilize manufacturing investment.

　　In addition, the domestic uncertainty lies in the direction of the epidemic. At present, the epidemic has rebounded in many places, and it still intermittently interferes with the stable recovery of the industrial economy.

Uncertainty in the external environment is more complicated. Continued geopolitical turmoil, monetary policy shifts in major economies, and the uncertain direction of the world economy are all increasing the overall downward pressure on the economy.

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