China News Service, July 22 (Zhongxin Finance and Economics Ge Cheng) In the first half of 2022, the sales performance of passenger vehicles and commercial vehicles can be described as "big differences".

With the help of the policy, the performance of passenger cars recovered rapidly after a short trough, with production and sales breaking new highs.

　　When will commercial vehicles, which play an important role in the national economic cycle, return to the growth zone?

Data map: road freight.

Photo by Zhong Yan

Commercial vehicles "fall and fall"

　　"Commercial vehicles are the main reason for the negative growth of the industry." Chen Shihua, deputy secretary-general of the China Automobile Association, attributed the downturn in the auto industry to the sluggish performance of commercial vehicles.

According to data from the China Automobile Association, in the first half of 2022, the overall production and sales of the automobile industry decreased by 467,000 and 849,000 respectively compared with the same period of the previous year, of which the production and sales of commercial vehicles decreased by 1.055 million and 1.192 million respectively in the same period last year.

　　The recently released half-year performance forecast of listed car companies also shows that the overall performance of the commercial vehicle industry is not good.

Zhongxin Finance found that among the 10 listed commercial vehicle companies that issued performance forecasts, 9 companies experienced a decline in net profit, and 5 companies experienced net profit losses.

　　Just two years ago, commercial vehicle performance hit an all-time high.

According to data from the China Automobile Association, in 2020, the production and sales of commercial vehicles will exceed 5 million for the first time.

Production and sales were completed at 5.231 million and 5.133 million respectively, a year-on-year increase of 20.0% and 18.7% respectively.

　　Since the "record" performance, commercial vehicle production and sales have been on a downward trend, a trend that continues to this day.

In 2021, the cumulative production and sales of commercial vehicles will be 4.674 million and 4.793 million, down 10.7% and 6.6% year-on-year.

In the first half of 2022, the production and sales of commercial vehicles were 1.683 million and 1.702 million, down 38.5% and 41.2% year-on-year.

why it fell

　　"Unlike passenger cars, which are consumer goods, commercial vehicles are means of production. Users rely on commercial vehicles to make money. If they don't make money, the commercial vehicle industry will not develop well." Xu Haidong, deputy chief engineer of the China Automobile Association, told China in an interview. According to the new finance and economics, the development of commercial vehicles needs to be comprehensively considered according to the economic and epidemic situation.

　　In Chen Shihua's view, there are four main reasons for the relatively large pressure on commercial vehicles at present, namely, the lack of power for replacement demand, the slow digestion of inventory vehicles, the slow start of infrastructure construction and the sluggish passenger car market.

　　"Before the first half of last year, trucks were driven by environmental protection policies. Enterprises seized the opportunity to switch between the National V and National VI emission standards, and there was a long-term peak in car purchases, resulting in a lack of motivation for the current demand for car replacement." Chen Shihua said, Due to the high output of heavy-duty National V diesel vehicles in the same period last year, there are still a small number of vehicles to be digested, and the digestion of blue-brand light truck inventory vehicles is also relatively slow; in addition, in the first half of this year, due to the impact of the epidemic, the start of infrastructure construction was slow, and the construction speed was slower than expected , so the production and sales of trucks fell significantly year-on-year.

　　In addition, Chen Shihua also said that the epidemic in the first half of the year had a great impact on the demand for tourism, passenger transport and urban buses, and the passenger car market continued to be sluggish.

Data map: Pure electric sanitation vehicle.

Photo by Tian Jin

How to break out

　　"Policy support is also crucial." Xu Haidong said that in recent months, in order to promote automobile consumption, restore logistics, and normalize the operating market, the state has issued a series of policies, but the policies for commercial vehicles are relatively small. For the time being, there are only "90 billion yuan of commercial truck loans issued by the central automobile enterprises, and the bank-enterprise linkage has postponed the repayment of principal and interest for half a year." Therefore, compared with the passenger vehicle market, the effect of the favorable policies has quickly shown, and the downturn of commercial vehicles in the first half of the year has not yet been realized. Effective relief.

　　Commercial vehicles in use today generally suffer from low emission standards and serious air pollution.

According to the data disclosed in the "China Commercial Vehicle Industry Development Report (2022)" (hereinafter referred to as the "Report") released recently, as of the end of June 2021, the number of commercial vehicles in my country exceeded 40 million, and the number of vehicles in the National V and below market market. accounted for more than 90%.

　　The "Report" pointed out that under the influence of diesel vehicle pollution control and national environmental protection policies, a large number of State III, State IV and State V trucks have been updated and eliminated in advance in some areas, resulting in a large number of performance and quality that can still meet the requirements of low-emission areas. Used car requested.

After such second-hand cars enter the market, it will increase the second-hand car transaction volume and market scale in the past two years, revitalize the second-hand car stock market and drive the growth of the automobile market.

　　The "Report" also mentioned that under the national "dual carbon" goal, the carbon reduction of commercial vehicles has become the focus of the industry, and some new energy achievements have been achieved in commercial vehicles and buses. In the future, the field of trucks will be increased. The promotion of new energy in urban areas, such as urban sanitation, urban logistics and other special fields, will become the focus of development.

　　The "Report" predicts that the policy dividends supporting the growth of commercial vehicle sales have gradually weakened in recent years, and the commercial vehicle market has entered a period of adjustment. At the end of the "14th Five-Year Plan", the domestic commercial vehicle market sales will return to the level before the epidemic, and the total volume will gradually stabilize Around 4.5 million.

　　There are also experts in the industry who expressed optimism about the development prospects of new energy commercial vehicles.

At the 2022 World Power Battery Conference held on July 21, Dong Yang, chairman of the China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance, said that in 2022, my country's new energy commercial vehicle production is expected to be 269,800, a year-on-year increase of about 21.5%.

(Finish)