(Mid-Year Economic Observation) Can China's foreign trade continue its strong growth trend?

  China News Service, Beijing, July 21 (Reporter Li Xiaoyu) In the first half of the year, China's foreign trade recorded a high growth rate of 9.4%, which was an outstanding performance among the world's major economies.

Scholars in Beijing believe that despite the international situation "mountains and rains are coming", China's foreign trade is still expected to continue its strong growth in the second half of the year.

  In the first half of China's economic "transcript", foreign trade is one of the highlights.

On the whole, the trend in the first two months was relatively stable. The growth rate briefly declined in March and April, and rebounded for two consecutive months in May and June. The growth rate of total import and export value in June was as high as 14.3%.

  Cheng Shi, chief economist of ICBC International, said that the stronger-than-expected resilience of exports has become one of the main reasons for China's economy to withstand pressure and maintain growth.

  In addition, China's foreign trade maintained a large surplus in the first half of the year, which is even more rare when traditional trading countries such as Japan, Germany, and South Korea are currently experiencing large trade deficits.

  Gao Lingyun, a researcher at the Institute of World Economics and Politics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said in an interview with a reporter from China News Agency that in the worst months of the epidemic in the first half of the year, China's foreign trade temporarily encountered difficulties, and the downward pressure increased. The rebound is the embodiment of the "spring effect" of foreign trade.

  Gao Lingyun believes that new variants of the new coronavirus have emerged, and new epidemics may occur in some countries.

In addition, although China's industrial chain supply chain is recovering, there are still "breaks" and "blocks".

These will have an impact on China's foreign trade in the second half of the year.

  Zhang Jianping, deputy director of the Academic Committee of the Institute of International Trade and Economic Cooperation of the Ministry of Commerce of China, also said that in the first half of the year, China's foreign trade increased by 9.4% year-on-year, laying a solid foundation for stabilizing foreign trade throughout the year.

However, in the second half of the year, foreign trade will also face many challenges, including the global energy crisis and the food crisis, which will impact the global market to a large extent, and the high probability that the US economy will fall into recession.

Therefore, Chinese foreign trade enterprises need to be prepared for danger and take precautions.

  A few days ago, the World Trade Organization has significantly lowered its forecast for global trade growth from 4.8% to around 3%, which shows that the prospects for global trade growth are not optimistic against the backdrop of a sharp rise in the geopolitical crisis.

  Recently, Chinese officials have been actively implementing policies to provide new support for the development of foreign trade.

The General Administration of Customs of China is guiding enterprises to further use the policy dividends of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), fully enjoy tariff reductions, and better explore the markets of RCEP member countries; the Ministry of Commerce is also strengthening production and operation guarantees for foreign trade enterprises to ensure smooth Logistics blocking points, and promote the reduction of import and export costs of enterprises.

At the same time, China's epidemic prevention policies are also more precise, and the impact on the normal production and operation of enterprises is reducing.

  Analysts believe that with the gradual effect of the foreign trade stabilization policy, the vitality and competitiveness of China's foreign trade enterprises are expected to be further enhanced.

Even with the coexistence of "black swans" and "grey rhinos" in the global market, the stable growth of foreign trade throughout the year can still be expected.

  Gao Lingyun said that despite facing multiple challenges, the second half of the year is the traditional peak season for exports, and it is expected that China's foreign trade will not experience a major reversal. The situation "may be more optimistic than the first half of the year".

There is little doubt that the scale of foreign trade will remain above 6 trillion US dollars this year, and the annual growth rate is expected to be around 4%, making it the best performer among the major economies in the world.

(Finish)