With the advancement of the "dual carbon" strategy, the automobile manufacturing industry, one of the main industries for carbon reduction, is accelerating the process of carbon reduction.
As one of the important paths to achieve the dual-carbon goal, the prosperity of new energy vehicles continues to rise under the impetus of the dual-carbon goal, the trend of electrification is intensifying, and the sales and penetration rate continue to increase.
According to the latest data from the China Passenger Transport Association, in the first half of this year, the new energy vehicle market achieved retail sales of 2.247 million units, a year-on-year increase of 122.4% and a penetration rate of 24.3%.
In fact, not only domestically proposed dual-carbon goals, but also major countries in the world have successively proposed carbon neutral development visions, and have further stringent requirements for "large carbon emitters" vehicles; at the end of June, the 27 EU countries reached an agreement after a long period of discussions and repeated consultations. Consensus, agreeing to ban the sale of petrol vehicles in the EU from 2035.
Zhang Hong, secretary general of the New Energy Branch of China Automobile Dealers Association, told the Beijing News Shell Finance reporter that in the world, about 20% of carbon emissions come from road traffic, and 70% of road traffic carbon emissions come from motor vehicle exhaust. 30% comes from the upstream and midstream industry chain.
Therefore, both domestic and foreign car companies regard reducing carbon emissions as an urgent goal.
Great Wall Motors
The first domestic car company to propose a carbon neutrality timetable
Fully carbon neutral by 2045
By 2025, it will launch more than 50 new energy vehicles, and achieve annual global sales of 4 million vehicles, of which 80% are new energy vehicles
Dongfeng Motor
Carbon intensity to be reduced by 15% by 2025
In 2024, the new models of the main passenger car brands will be 100% electrified
By 2025, sales of new energy vehicles will reach 1 million.
SAIC
Aiming for 2025
achieve carbon peaks
Proportion of new energy vehicle sales
over 32%
GAC Group
Plan to achieve carbon neutrality throughout the product life cycle by 2050 (challenge 2045)
BYD
It is planned to build a zero-carbon park in 2022 and achieve zero-carbon emissions in 2050
Changan Automobile
Strive for carbon peak in 2027, carbon neutrality in 2045
FAW Group
It is planned that by 2053, it will basically reach the level of net zero emissions and have the ability to achieve carbon neutrality
BAIC Group
Make every effort to achieve carbon peaking in 2025, and achieve full decarbonization of products and carbon neutrality in operations in 2050
Geely Holding
The overall goal of achieving carbon neutrality across the entire chain by 2045
Status of points
Inconsistent results, traditional car companies need to accelerate the transition to electrification
The high temperature in Changsha is close to 40 ℃. In the Changsha plant of SAIC Volkswagen, the paint spraying robot is busy washing in the paint workshop.
But unlike in the past, these robots are loaded with deionized water instead of flushing solvents.
The relevant person in charge of SAIC Volkswagen told the Beijing News Shell Finance reporter: "The use of deionized water instead of the flushing solvent can reduce the amount of chemicals used and VOC emissions in the paint shop; in addition, SAIC Volkswagen can reduce nearly 87,000 tons per year through photovoltaic power generation. Carbon dioxide emissions." In fact, these robots are a microcosm of SAIC's acceleration of the "zero carbon road". According to SAIC's plan, it strives to achieve carbon peaks by 2025.
Great Wall Motor, which is 1,300 kilometers away from the landmark axis, has become the first car company in China to publicly put forward a carbon neutral timetable after promising to achieve carbon neutrality by 2045 in June last year. In its 2021 corporate social responsibility report released this year, The goal of short-term sustainable development is reiterated again—to realize the first zero-carbon factory in 2023, to launch more than 50 new energy models by 2025, and to achieve global annual sales of 4 million vehicles, 80% of which are new energy vehicles.
The landmark axis continues to the north, more than 800 kilometers away in Shenyang, the BMW Rida factory has officially opened.
One day before the official opening of the Rida factory, BMW launched a mobile game, using the virtual tour guide Yuanbao as the main line to experience the Rida factory; when they went to the body shop, the tour guide Yuanbao introduced that BMW Group introduced more energy-saving electric servo welding guns and other production processes, which are smart The energy management system monitors energy and resource consumption in real time and optimizes it through AI in-depth analysis.
The relevant person in charge of the BMW Group said that the Lida plant is the latest example of BMW's green production concept in China, reflecting the concept of sustainable development, such as the use of 100% renewable energy.
In fact, whether it is SAIC Volkswagen, Great Wall Motor and BMW Group, they are the epitome of the automobile industry's march towards dual carbon.
As an important part of the dual carbon goal, car companies have responded, whether it is advocacy at the policy level or based on consideration of their own interests, but with varying results.
At the beginning of July, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology released the average fuel consumption and new energy vehicle points scores of passenger car companies in 2021, showing that both SAIC Volkswagen and BMW are on the list of failing to meet the standards, and they are still facing the pressure of transformation.
Cui Dongshu, Secretary General of the National Passenger Vehicle Market Information Association, believes that the penetration rate of new energy sources for joint venture brands is less than 10%, and the fuel consumption of foreign-funded enterprises is in a state of exceeding the standard. transformation.
Industrial Securities believes that due to the insufficient promotion of new energy models, many traditional car companies are expected to meet the pressure of double credits in the follow-up traditional OEMs, which is expected to be higher than the overall pressure of the whole industry.
As for Great Wall Motors, although the dual-point performance in 2021 is up to standard, the new energy field still needs to be broken.
In 2021, Great Wall Motor's cumulative sales of new energy vehicles will be about 137,000 units. To fulfill its commitment to new energy vehicle sales in 2025, Great Wall Motor needs to increase the sales of new energy vehicles by 24 times within four years.
Not long ago, #wei brand CEO Li Ruifeng "tears" Huawei Yu Chengdong # on Weibo's hot search list. Although the surface is a battle over the path of new energy technology, it reflects Wei brand and its backing Great Wall Motor's new energy vehicles. Deep anxiety about the development of the field.
Zhang Xiang, a specially-appointed expert from China Bolian Think Tank, believes that Great Wall Motors is dominated by SUVs, and SUVs are heavier and have higher fuel consumption, making it a greater challenge to achieve new energy transformation.
Strategic Plan
The double carbon test, the similarities and differences between the "answer papers" of car companies
In September 2020, the Chinese government announced at the 75th United Nations General Assembly that it will strive to achieve carbon peaking by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060.
Subsequently, at the Central Economic Work Conference in December 2020, it was clearly stated that achieving carbon peaking and carbon neutrality would be one of the eight key tasks in 2021, as one of the main links in energy consumption and carbon emissions.
In 2021, carbon peaking and carbon neutrality were listed in the government work report for the first time. In the same year, the "Carbon Peaking Action Plan before 2030" and other double-carbon heavyweight documents were successively issued, which clearly proposed to further accelerate the construction of a low-carbon transportation system.
During the two sessions this year, the topic of dual carbon was hotly discussed again. Industry insiders put forward dual carbon proposals related to the automotive industry, including Chen Hong, chairman of SAIC Motor, and Yin Tongyue, chairman of Chery Automobile.
They suggested that improving the low-carbon development policy of the automobile industry and the inclusion of automobiles in carbon trading will help to achieve the dual carbon goals.
As a major contributor to carbon emissions, energy conservation and emission reduction in the field of transportation has long been pushed into the spotlight.
The issue of carbon reduction in the automobile industry is not only related to the realization of the national dual-carbon strategic goal, but also to the path and method of sustainable development of auto companies.
In this regard, domestic car companies responded positively.
According to incomplete statistics from the Beijing News Shell Finance reporter, at least 9 domestic auto companies, including FAW, Dongfeng, SAIC, GAC, Changan, Great Wall, Geely, BAIC and BYD, have proposed a clear carbon neutral timetable.
In June last year, Great Wall Motors announced that it will fully achieve carbon neutrality by 2045, becoming the first domestic car company to publicly determine a carbon neutrality schedule, and announced a five-year plan for carbon neutrality on the product side.
Subsequently, GAC Group announced that it will achieve carbon neutrality throughout the product life cycle by 2050.
In addition, Geely Holding Group plans to achieve the goal of carbon neutrality in the whole chain by 2045, and stated that it has determined multi-technology paths such as pure electricity, plug-in hybrid and methanol; BAIC Group announced that it will further promote comprehensive new energy and intelligence. Network connection, and strive to achieve carbon peaking in 2025, and achieve full decarbonization of products and carbon neutrality in operations in 2050; FAW Group proposed to basically reach the level of net zero emissions by 2053, with the ability to achieve carbon neutrality; Changan Automobile plans To achieve the carbon peak in 2027 and achieve carbon neutrality by 2045; Dongfeng Motor plans to sell 1 million new energy vehicles in 2025, in order to help achieve the dual carbon goal.
In terms of foreign car companies, the EU plans to ban the sale of fuel vehicles in the EU in 2035.
BMW Group announced that pure electric vehicles will account for at least 50% of global sales by 2030, and MINI will become a pure electric brand; Volkswagen Group plans to increase the proportion of pure electric vehicles to 50% by 2030, and achieve carbon neutrality by 2050 at the latest And; Mercedes-Benz plans to be fully electric by 2030; Audi plans to phase out the production of internal combustion engines by 2033.
"BMW, Mercedes-Benz, Volkswagen, Toyota and other companies have an annual emission reduction target of 30% of the previous year's emission reduction. From the perspective of the entire EU market, the ban on the sale of fuel vehicles in 2035 is regarded as radical by the industry. The dual-carbon targets set by Chinese car companies are relatively mild.” Zhang Hong analyzed, “The penetration rate of electric vehicles will reach 20% of the total automobile production and sales in 2030. Although the current actual production and sales of electric vehicles is greater than this target, from the national and From the perspective of industrial planning, the dual carbon targets are still relatively loose and moderate.”
Comparing the plans of car companies for the dual-carbon strategy, we can find similarities. On the one hand, they are accelerating the popularization of new energy vehicles. On the other hand, major car companies have begun to focus on the development of green factories.
Zhang Hong said that in terms of electricity consumption, European, American and Japanese car companies, like domestic car companies, still rely on crude oil and coal for power generation, and the recycling and reuse of waste batteries are still facing severe challenges.
But there are also differences. Zhang Hong believes that European car companies are currently on the road to achieve the dual-carbon goal, and they pay more attention to simultaneous transformation in all aspects of the entire industry chain; while domestic car companies are currently taking measures. Increase the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in the market, but there are not many emission reduction measures for the upstream parts production field.
Mei Songlin, a senior auto industry analyst, pointed out that the dual-carbon strategic goals of foreign companies and Sino-foreign joint ventures should take into account the dual needs of the company's headquarters and the Chinese market. Only by choosing a higher strategic goal can they meet the requirements of both parties; domestic auto companies currently only need to meet Domestic requirements will do. When local car companies gradually enter the international market, the dual-carbon strategy will be an important consideration when going overseas.
Transformation challenges
To achieve the dual-carbon goal, how can car companies "build first and then break"?
For traditional car companies, it is the general trend to further accelerate the transition to new energy vehicles in the context of dual carbon.
However, in this transformation and change, internal constraints, transformation costs, technical challenges, and industrial chain adjustments have all brought unknowable effects. The transformation of the elephant is not smooth sailing, but more like a challenge.
On the one hand, because the R&D, production and sales of new energy vehicles are quite different from those of traditional car companies, the transformation of traditional car companies needs to change the existing corporate structure, and the long-term organizational structure of traditional car companies is not easy to change.
For example, in order to accelerate the pace of transformation, Volkswagen Group CEO Herbert Diess promoted drastic reforms, but the overly drastic measures directly detonated the contradiction between Diess and the labor union, which led to the gradual reduction of his voice and prestige within the group.
On the other hand, the transformation of traditional car companies will inevitably bear the pressure of cost.
Tang Weishi, CEO of Stellantis, publicly stated at the end of last year that the electrification transformation of traditional car companies will increase the cost by 50%, and car companies cannot pass this 50% additional cost on to final consumers. The pressure on traditional car companies to turn may be It will threaten itself, because the cost increase brought about by the electrification transformation is beyond the ability of traditional car companies.
The relevant person in charge of Xiaopeng Motors said that the general trend of low-carbon economic transformation has led to low-carbon production demand, and it may face pressure to replace equipment in the short and medium term to meet the development requirements of new technologies and new processes.
Therefore, the automobile industry needs to establish and improve the energy management system in a timely manner; in addition, it also faces risks such as uncertainty of product cost and selling price.
The relevant person in charge of GAC Group believes that the main challenges in promoting the realization of dual carbon in the automobile industry lie in the single-handed combat of car companies to fight competition; the lack of resource sharing in technology research and development, and the lack of standards and industrial chain coordination.
The relevant person in charge of FAW-Volkswagen expressed the hope that the goals and implementation paths of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality at various stages, including the roadmap, will be clarified as soon as possible.
In Mei Songlin's view, the challenge of the transformation of traditional car companies mainly lies in how to change from passive to active, which will be a turning point for breakthroughs in carbon reduction work.
Qi Haishen, President of Beijing Teyi Sunshine New Energy, believes that the biggest difficulty in the transformation of traditional car companies is how to "build first and then break" - without fully preparing for the era of electrified travel, rashly develop new energy vehicles It takes a lot of courage and courage, especially in the face of the huge investment in traditional automotive technology, how to reduce the pain and economic losses caused by transformation and upgrading, and maximize corporate benefits; at the same time, the new energy vehicle market is facing both energy transformation issues. It is the competition of high-tech intelligent technology.
Xu Haidong, deputy chief engineer of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, told Shell Finance reporters that traditional car companies may often place too much emphasis on the fuel vehicle business, and at the same time, the change in consumer demand for electric vehicles has not changed so quickly; the main pressure on traditional car companies may come from its original traditional car companies need to change their thinking.
In addition, Zhang Hong added that the transformation of traditional car companies may also cause social problems such as employment transformation. Therefore, the transformation and upgrading process from traditional cars to new energy vehicles is a long process, and traditional car companies need to be given time.
future path
Multi-line parallel, industry carbon reduction may need to focus on two aspects
"The ultimate goal of carbon neutrality determines that the future of automotive products is electrification and hydrogenation, but the realization process cannot be achieved overnight. Car companies can start decarbonization work from three aspects: fuel saving, energy saving and material saving." China Auto He Yi, deputy secretary-general of the Industrial Association, said frankly.
From the perspective of the layout of car companies, the transformation of new energy is not only a technical route of pure electric.
Zhang Xiang believes, "Each car company's situation is different, and the basic routes chosen by car companies are also different. For example, Volkswagen is targeting pure electric vehicles, and Hyundai and Toyota are also deploying hydrogen fuel cell vehicles. Some companies may choose two or three at the same time. A technical route.” In fact, at different stages of car companies’ development, the technical routes and carbon reduction target paths they take are also different.
Traditional car companies first realize the carbon reduction of traditional power vehicles, and then accelerate the layout of new energy vehicles and energy-saving vehicles.
The European Commission's agreement on the 2035 ban on petrol vehicles is premised on accepting Germany's proposal to keep the 2035 target while assessing in 2026 whether synthetic fuel vehicles or petrol-electric hybrids can continue to be on the market Sales.
From the perspective of the domestic market, the newly revised dual-point policy is also intended to further stimulate the layout of energy-saving vehicles by car companies; Zhang Hong also believes that the dual-point policy takes into account the improvement of the emission reduction level of traditional vehicles, and at the same time promotes new energy vehicles. The development of my country's automobile industry will promote the simultaneous development of energy conservation, emission reduction, transformation and upgrading of China's automobile industry.
As for the overall carbon reduction in the auto industry, Mei Songlin believes that it can be divided into two parts, namely car companies and car products.
He explained that for car companies, the core is the use of clean energy and renewable energy; but the bigger role is the change in automotive products, including the transformation from traditional fuel vehicles to new energy vehicles, automotive digital software, vehicle lightweighting, The use of environmentally friendly materials and recyclable materials in the car will reduce carbon more effectively.
In addition, it is worth noting that the automobile industry has the characteristics of long industrial chain and high degree of correlation. The analysis of Boston Consulting Group also shows that in addition to the emission at the stage of vehicle use, a large part of the main battlefield of the carbon neutrality challenge in the automobile industry lies in the supply chain; the automobile industry The main emission entities are mainly non-automotive enterprises, and the total emissions from upstream and downstream accounts for more than 95%.
Therefore, the industry believes that in addition to optimizing the product supply side and travel side, the establishment of a closed-loop mechanism for the raw material supply system and a sound carbon offset mechanism are equally important for the entire life cycle of carbon reduction actions in the automotive industry.
Zhang Hong also has the same view. He believes that in the process of promoting carbon reduction in the automobile industry, car companies should also pay attention to the pursuit of carbon reduction effects at the level of the entire industry chain.
It is undeniable that under the background of accelerating carbon reduction and achieving carbon neutrality, the upgrading of automobiles and related industrial chains is imperative. It is unstoppable to accelerate the transformation to promote "net zero emissions", and market competition will intensify.
Beijing News Shell Finance reporter Wang Linlin, Bai Haotian, Zhang Binglinzi