Securities Times reporter Chen Lixiang
The period of intensive disclosure of semi-annual reports is approaching, and more than one-third of A-share listed companies have taken the lead in forecasting their performance.
In the first half of this year, under the influence of various unfavorable factors such as the more complex and severe international environment and the frequent occurrence of domestic epidemics, the downward pressure on the domestic economy has increased, and GDP has increased by 2.5% year-on-year.
Judging from the results of the performance forecast, listed companies, as the main force and new force in economic development, are still resilient. Nearly half of the companies are still expected to achieve year-on-year growth, and nearly a quarter of the companies have doubled their growth. Pharmaceutical biology, chemical raw materials and other industries performed well.
Over 400 companies
Net profit is expected to double
The forecast content of the semi-annual report has certain investment guiding significance.
The research report of Zhongtai Securities pointed out that the collection of stocks with a forecast growth rate of more than 50% in the first half of the year can often obtain good returns after the forecast is disclosed.
The value and consumption sectors with cyclical attributes or stable performance are more prone to "interim report forecast market".
The performance of steel, coal, building decoration and automobiles has certain pro-cyclical attributes, and the high growth forecast in the interim report can often be continued in an upward cyclical environment.
As of noon on July 15, a total of 1,643 A-share listed companies released their first-half performance forecasts.
Among them, 752 companies are expected to achieve positive growth, accounting for nearly half.
Among these companies, 417 of them may double their net profit in the first half of the year.
From the perspective of the industry, affected by the epidemic, the performance of companies in each segment is divided.
In the fields of chemical raw materials, computer communications, electrical equipment, and pharmaceutical manufacturing, there are many contrarian growth companies, with a total of more than 200 companies pre-increasing.
Among them, the electrical equipment and computer communication industries are also concentration camps for enterprises that have turned losses.
The sub-sectors in the upstream of the industrial chain benefited from the tight market supply and demand pattern, rising prices, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, and global inflation expectations, and the overall profit growth in the second quarter was good.
In the commodity industry, coal, non-ferrous metals, basic chemicals, petroleum and petrochemical industries as a whole also performed outstandingly, and there were many predictors of performance growth.
In the first half of the year, the high price of coal and other traditional energy sources has brought the industry's profits to continue to grow rapidly. Of the 28 performance forecasts that have been released, only 4 are expected to see a decline in net profit in the first half of the year.
According to the calculation of the coal industry group of the research department of CITIC Securities, the key companies are calculated on the basis of the holistic method.
The performance of real estate, software information services and agricultural and sideline food processing industries was generally unsatisfactory, and many companies expected that their net profit would decline or even turn from profit to loss.
Among them, among the 74 listed real estate companies that have issued performance forecasts, more than 80% are expected to turn from profit to loss, decline in performance or continue to lose money in the first half of the year.
However, judging from the comparison of stock price performance and performance forecast, the performance of the electronics industry may exceed market expectations.
Since the beginning of the year, all 31 Shenwan primary industry indexes except coal have experienced corrections, and the electronics industry has fallen by 28%.
Among the 111 listed companies that have released performance forecasts, 51 are expected to achieve net profit growth and turn losses.
From the perspective of a single company, Jiu’an Medical, which has won a large order for antigen detection reagents in the United States, and Tianqi Lithium, which has skyrocketed in lithium product prices, temporarily occupy the top two positions in terms of net profit growth, which are expected to increase by at least 275 times and 111 times, respectively. .
In addition, companies such as Shenglu Communication, Anzhong Co., Ltd., Rongjie Co., Ltd., and Gaohong Co., Ltd. are expected to increase their net profit by more than 30 times.
Medicinal biology maintains high prosperity
Under the influence of a series of factors such as the impact of the epidemic and the reform of medical insurance, the performance of the pharmaceutical and biological industry continued to diverge.
The sub-sectors related to the epidemic, such as vaccines, anti-epidemic medical device products, and the innovative drug sector, which benefited from the comprehensive deepening of the industry's reform, continued to maintain high prosperity.
The first semi-annual reports of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets are from the pharmaceutical and biological industries.
The first semi-annual report of the Shanghai Stock Exchange was Plum Blossom Bio. In the first half of the year, the operating income was 14.22 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 28.96%;
The performance of the first semi-annual report in Shenzhen was not so bright. In the first half of the year, Mike Bio achieved operating income of 1.782 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.11%; net profit attributable to the parent was 406 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 23.68%.
On the whole, the performance of the pharmaceutical and biological industry in the first half of the year was better than the market average. Among the 99 published performance forecasts of Shenwan pharmaceutical and biological industry, the pre-happy rate was more than half; among them, 23 companies expected that their net profit in the first half of the year would double year-on-year.
Among the sub-sectors, the chemical pharmacy, medical equipment, traditional Chinese medicine, and CXO sectors have higher pre-happy rates.
On the basis of last year's high base, the performance of companies in the anti-epidemic sector also frequently doubled in the first half of this year.
In addition to Jiu'an Medical, Mingde Bio, Wantai Bio, Dean Diagnostics, and Daan Gene expect their net profit in the first half of the year to increase by over 314%, 246%, 120%, and 106% year-on-year, respectively.
In addition to the rapid growth of revenue and profits of new crown raw materials and new crown detection reagents, Wantai Bio's performance has grown, and its main business product, bivalent cervical cancer vaccine, has also maintained a boom in production and sales, and both revenue and profit have achieved high growth.
Although the stock price of the CXO sector fluctuated and fell on the whole in the secondary market in the first half of the year, the industry still maintained a high prosperity.
The 9 listed companies that have released performance forecasts have pre-increased their performance in an all-round way.
Leading companies Proton, Asymchem, and WuXi PharmaTech expect their net profit to increase by over 455%, 283%, and 73% year-on-year, respectively.
The research report of CITIC Securities pointed out that the growth momentum of the CXO industry comes from two aspects: based on the dividend of Chinese engineers and a perfect supply chain, the overseas industrial chain is constantly shifting to China; based on the industry development and the support of the drug review and approval policy, Chinese enterprises are enthusiastic about innovative drugs , while gradually accepting the outsourcing model.
New energy outbreak performance cattle
In the first half of this year, many segments of the new energy industry made a lot of money.
"There is lithium to go around the world." In the first half of the year, the price of lithium remained high, the demand for lithium products was strong, and the performance of companies in the industry broke out.
Leading companies Tianqi Lithium, Shengxin Lithium Energy, Ganfeng Lithium, and Yanhu Co., Ltd. expect their net profits to increase by more than 111 times, 7.9 times, 4 times, and 3.26 times year-on-year, respectively.
In addition, companies such as Tibet Mining, Jiangte Electric, Tianhua Ultra Clean, China Mining Resources, and Yahua Group are expected to grow by at least four times.
The cobalt-nickel industry has benefited from strong demand for new energy batteries and rising prices.
Huayou Cobalt expects to achieve a net profit of 2.2 billion to 2.6 billion yuan in the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 49.86%-77.11%; China Molybdenum expects a net profit of over 3.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of over 65%.
The sales of new energy vehicles maintained a high growth trend. In June, the sales of new energy vehicles reached 596,000, a month-on-month increase of 33.4%. The monthly sales of new energy vehicles of many car companies hit a record high.
However, in the first half of this year, the performance of OEMs has diverged.
BYD expects a profit of 2.8 billion to 3.6 billion yuan in the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 138.59% to 206.76%.
Great Wall Motor expects that the net profit in the first half of this year will increase by 1.771 billion yuan to 2.371 billion yuan compared with the same period last year, a year-on-year increase of 50.2% to 67.2%.
Changan Automobile expects net profit to increase by more than 189% year-on-year.
FAW Jiefang, Dongfeng Motor, Foton Motor, Xiaokang Co., Ltd., Yutong Bus, and Jianghuai Automobile all announced that their performance in the first half of the year declined significantly.
However, the new energy vehicle industry has transitioned from subsidy-driven to market-driven, and many analysts are optimistic about the growth of the industry in the second half of the year.
The Haitong Securities research report believes that the addition of policy support to the launch of new models will lead the industry's growth in the second half of the year.
From a long-term perspective, the curtain of intelligent networked vehicles has just begun. From ordinary models to luxury cars, it is worth re-polishing and upgrading in the direction of electrification and intelligence; in the short term, the recent introduction of new energy vehicle policies is expected to stimulate terminal car purchase demand In addition, the launch of many blockbuster models of new energy vehicle companies will also become a catalyst for the increase in the delivery of new energy vehicles.
Looking forward to the third quarter, analysts still believe that the high prosperity of the new energy industry will not change.
The research report of AVIC Securities pointed out that the “carbon neutrality” of Europe, the United States and China, the growth of energy demand brought about by the slow economic recovery, the high price of traditional energy, and the energy shortage caused by partial supply and demand imbalance are the supporting logics of several major global new energy demand. There is still no major change, so upstream prices and terminal demand in the third quarter are expected to remain hot.