China News Service, July 16 (China-News Financial Reporter Shi Rui) China's economic semi-annual report, which has attracted much attention, was released on the 15th. In the first half of the year, GDP increased by 2.5% year-on-year. Among them, GDP in the second quarter increased by 0.4% year-on-year.

　　"In the first quarter of this year, my country's GDP grew by 4.8%, which is remarkable. Then, affected by the impact of the international environment and the domestic epidemic, major economic indicators fell deeply in April, which is like experiencing a sudden economic downward pressure." Encounter ' The package of policies and measures we took to stabilize the economy was timely and appropriate, and the effects quickly emerged. The decline in major economic indicators narrowed in May, the economy stabilized and rebounded in June, and finally the economy achieved positive growth in the second quarter."

　　Chen Yuyu, professor of the Department of Applied Economics at Peking University Guanghua School of Management and director of the Institute of Economic Policy at Peking University, was interviewed by Zhongxin Finance, explaining the operation of China's economy in the first half of the year.

Chen Yuyu, Professor of the Department of Applied Economics, Guanghua School of Management, Peking University, and Director of the Institute of Economic Policy, Peking University

Why can China's economy stabilize and rebound in a short period of time?

　　Since the beginning of this year, the international environment has become more complex and severe, the domestic epidemic has frequently spread, the adverse impact has increased significantly, and unexpected unexpected factors have brought serious impact, and the downward pressure on the economy in the second quarter has increased significantly.

　　From the data point of view, the added value of industries above designated size in April fell by 2.9% year-on-year, and the total retail sales of consumer goods fell by 11.1% year-on-year.

However, in May, many economic indicators stopped the downward trend. The added value of industries above designated size turned from negative to positive year-on-year, up 0.7%; the total retail sales of consumer goods fell by 6.7% year-on-year, and the decline narrowed by 4.4 percentage points.

In June, the main economic indicators stabilized and rebounded. The added value of industries above designated size increased by 3.9% year-on-year, 3.2 percentage points higher than the previous month, and the growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods turned positive, up 3.1% year-on-year.

　　Under the impact of unexpected factors, why can my country's economy stabilize and rebound in a short period of time?

There are three key factors in Chen Yuyu's analysis. First, various regions and departments have introduced and implemented strong macroeconomic policies, which are quick and powerful. The macroeconomic policy system has shown the ability to deal with economic fluctuations, and finally reversed the economic downturn. expected.

Second, the fundamentals of my country's long-term economic growth have not changed. The economy is large, resilient and dynamic, and market participants are confident.

Third, the basic work done in recent years for "deleveraging" and preventing and defusing financial risks has played a role.

　　He further explained that in the face of the obvious decline in major economic indicators in April this year, what the market is most worried about is not the decline in short-term economic data, but whether the decline in economic indicators will have a chain reaction.

However, since our government took measures to deleverage and prevent risks a few years ago, it has curbed the momentum of the rapid increase in the macro leverage ratio, which has left enough policy space to deal with the complicated and difficult situation in the second quarter; my country has not adopted a strong stimulus policy of "flooding". Therefore, the downward pressure on the economy in the second quarter did not cause a significant impact on the financial system.

Why doesn't China have the same high inflation as Europe and the United States?

　　Fu Linghui, spokesperson of the National Bureau of Statistics and director of the National Economic Comprehensive Statistics Department, mentioned at the press conference on the 15th that the economy achieved positive growth in the second quarter, stabilizing the economic market, and the achievements were hard-won.

However, it should also be noted that the risk of stagflation in the world economy is on the rise, the policies of major economies tend to be tightened, and external instability and uncertainties have increased significantly.

　　Chen Yuyu believes that in the process of responding to the new crown epidemic, European and American countries have adopted too aggressive macro policies to stimulate demand, superimposed on the rise in the prices of food and energy and other commodities in the international market, resulting in an increase in the inflation rate of most Western countries, which is a To curb inflation, the main method adopted by these countries is to shrink monetary policy.

During this process, the monetary policies of countries with high inflation may have a negative impact on China's external demand and capital flows.

　　With the overall rise in international inflationary pressures, domestic concerns about price stability are also on the rise.

However, Chen Yuyu emphasized that China will not experience high inflation like the United States and other developed countries. There are two reasons: First, my country's economy has not returned to its potential growth rate, and there will be no demand higher than supply at this stage; Second, China has adhered to a prudent monetary policy over the years, and will not overuse monetary policy tools for short-term economic fluctuations.

　　According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the national consumer price (CPI) rose by 1.7% year-on-year in the first half of this year and 2.3% year-on-year in the second quarter.

Fu Linghui said that in the next stage, the influence of international imported factors may continue, but the supply capacity of my country's goods and services is generally sufficient, and the market is increasing efforts to ensure supply and stabilize prices, and prices are expected to maintain a moderate upward trend.

What trend will China's economy show in the second half of the year?

　　In the first half of this year, my country's economy withstood the shock of unexpected factors and maintained growth. What will the Chinese economy show in the second half of the year?

Chen Yuyu said that after withstood the short-term downward pressure in the second quarter, my country's economy will return to a healthy and sustainable medium and long-term growth track in the second half of the year.

　　What are the key points that will drive the continued economic growth in the second half of the year?

Chen Yuyu put forward four suggestions, one is to focus on solving the situation of shrinking economic demand in my country; the other is to summarize the specific experience of epidemic prevention in the first half of the year, and to balance the problems of epidemic prevention and control and economic development; the third is to pay attention to and solve the risks of the real estate industry; four It is to enhance the vitality of the private economy and support the development of small and medium-sized enterprises.

　　"Only relying on macroeconomic policies can support economic growth in the short term, and by restoring and stimulating the vitality of 160 million market players, the economy can be stabilized and go far. The task of quality and vitality is still a long way to go." Chen Yuyu said.

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