The property market handed over the semi-annual report, should I see a "word" in the second half of the year?

　　China News Service, July 16th,

　　Zhongxin Finance reporter Zuo Yukun

　　On July 15, the National Bureau of Statistics announced the changes in the sales prices of commercial housing in 70 large and medium-sized cities in June, as well as the national real estate development and investment sales from January to June, which both reflect the operation of the real estate industry in the first half of the year and judge the development situation in the second half of the year. heavy data.

　　Overall, in the ups and downs, the word "stable" is still the trend and goal of the development of the real estate industry.

Data map.

Photo by Luo Yunfei

Housing prices rose in cities with more in June

　　According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the sales prices of commercial housing in 70 large and medium-sized cities generally stabilized month-on-month in June. The sales prices of newly built commercial housing and second-hand housing rose in 31 and 21 cities respectively, an increase of 6 from the previous month.

　　"Cities with rising house prices have further increased, the market is in a stage of continuous and steady recovery, and the recovery of traditional hot cities has been further strengthened." said Zhang Bo, director of the branch of the 58 Anju Room Industry Research Institute.

　　From the perspective of specific cities, the increase in first-tier cities continued to increase, and the increase in first- and second-hand housing increased month-on-month.

Among them, the prices of new houses in Beijing and Shanghai rose by 0.8% and 0.5% respectively, showing the most obvious performance; among the second-hand houses, only Shenzhen experienced a month-on-month decline, with a rate of 1%.

　　"The strong demand support in first-tier cities, coupled with the existence of price caps for new houses, has led to a long-term high market attention. The Shenzhen market as a whole has been in a rebound stage, but due to the strong previous policies, especially the reference price of second-hand houses and other policies are still effective. Obviously, the market recovery will be slow, and short-term fluctuations in housing prices are also normal." Zhang Bo said.

The sales price index of new commercial residential buildings in 70 large and medium-sized cities in June 2022.

Screenshot from the official website of the National Bureau of Statistics

　　The second-tier cities are in a state of continuous differentiation of "the strong are always strong".

In terms of new houses, the month-on-month

, showing a bright performance; the housing prices in Harbin and Changchun still fell significantly month-on-month.

　　"The hot second-tier cities in the west and east have strong self-healing capabilities, and the effectiveness of policies is more likely to be reflected in the market. Especially with the supply of high-quality new houses, the market's attention is easy to increase." Zhang Bo believes.

　　Third-tier cities are generally still recovering slowly. Wuxi, Xuzhou and other cities with strong industrial support and high demand potential are gradually entering the upward channel, while more cities are still at the bottom, and the recovery process is expected to be longer.

　　Among them,

with a double-digit decline. The year-on-year decline in second-hand housing prices in May was also 10.5%. 15 years ago, 50,000 suites" news.

　　"The current market restoration is more driven by first-tier and strong second-tier cities. It is expected that the later restoration will be transmitted to the surrounding second-tier and strong third-tier cities, and the market restoration area will gradually expand." Xu Xiaole, chief market analyst of Shell Research Institute, believes.

The sales price index of second-hand housing in 70 large and medium-sized cities in June 2022.

Screenshot from the official website of the National Bureau of Statistics

Sales downtrend eased

　　From the perspective of the overall housing prices in various tier cities, there are still some situations that need to be paid attention to.

Yan Yuejin, research director of the Think Tank Center of the E-House Research Institute, mentioned that the year-on-year increase in new home prices in second-tier cities was the first decline in 79 months, that is, the first year-on-year decline since December 2015.

　　According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the sales price of new commercial housing in second-tier cities changed from a month-on-month decrease to an increase of 0.1%, and a year-on-year increase from the previous month to a decrease of 0.2%. 0.2 percentage points.

　　"This shows that the pressure on second-tier cities is relatively high. The recent suspension of work and loans and other phenomena are also generally concentrated in second-tier cities. Therefore, it is currently necessary to prevent the risk of too cold housing prices in some second-tier cities." Yan Yuejin said.

　　In addition, the sales price of new commercial housing in first-tier cities rose by 0.5% month-on-month, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month; the sales price of second-hand housing turned from the same month last month to an increase of 0.1% month-on-month.

The sales price of new commercial housing in third-tier cities fell by 0.3% month-on-month, the same rate of decline as the previous month; the sales price of second-hand housing fell by 0.3% month-on-month, and the decline rate narrowed by 0.2 percentage points from the previous month.

　　"Although the property market is still in the process of bottoming out, with the blowout easing policy, the market's decline has narrowed significantly." Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Centaline Real Estate, pointed out that in June, more than 100 cities have issued policies to stabilize the property market. There have been more than 460 real estate regulation in the year as of June, and only 286 in the first half of 2021.

　　The continued increase in policy also made the property market in the first half of the year particularly concerned.

　　According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on the 15th, in the first half of the year, the national real estate development investment was 6,831.4 billion yuan, down 5.4% year-on-year; of which, the residential investment was 5,180.4 billion yuan, down 4.5%.

The sales area of ​​commercial housing nationwide was 689.23 million square meters, down 22.2%; the sales of commercial housing was 6,607.2 billion yuan, down 28.9%.

　　"By splitting the monthly data, it can be seen that although the sales of sales area in a single month in June was still the lowest point in the past 4 years, the year-on-year decrease in the transaction volume was significantly reduced, the sales area decreased by 18.3% year-on-year, and the sales decreased year-on-year. 20.8%." Zhang Dawei said.

　　"The transaction scale of the real estate market has bottomed out and rebounded, and the cumulative year-on-year downward trend in the area and amount of commercial housing sales has eased." The China Index Research Institute further pointed out that the year-on-year decline in the sales scale of commercial housing in June narrowed significantly. It is closely related to the intensified efforts of companies to push the market in the month to drive demand to enter the market.

Screenshot from the official website of the National Bureau of Statistics.

It is necessary to pay attention to the extreme situation affecting the rare stabilization of the market

　　"In the short term, the national real estate market is showing signs of stabilizing, but the steady recovery still faces certain pressures." The Middle Finger Research Institute pointed out that the recent "loan suspension" of some projects in some cities has had an adverse impact on market expectations, or it may be certain To a certain extent, it will drag down the market recovery rhythm.

　　Many industry insiders have pointed out the impact of similar problems on the current real estate market.

Zhang Dawei also pointed out that the problems facing the current property market are not just real estate issues, and targeted support policies should be introduced to avoid extreme situations such as loan breakages that affect the rare stabilization of the market.

　　Recently, regulators and some local governments have taken swift action, and many banks have also responded positively to stabilize market expectations.

The China Index Research Institute believes that from the short-term trend of the market, the transaction volume of commercial housing in a single month in July may fall compared with that in June, but the high base effect in the same period last year has weakened and there is still room for real estate control policies. The year-on-year decline in the market size is expected to continue. narrow posture.

　　Zhang Bo pointed out that the demand side can pay more attention to improving the crowd, especially giving more tilt to the down payment and loan interest rate, which will be more conducive to accelerating the improvement of the crowd's admission rhythm.

The supply side needs to have more flexible policies for real estate enterprises.

(Finish)