Affected by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, Europe is in deep energy crisis, inflation is increasing, and the euro is weak.

On the 13th, the exchange rate of the euro against the U.S. dollar in the European foreign exchange market fell to 1 euro to $0.998 for the first time in nearly 20 years.

　　According to ING strategists, from the forecast range of the options market, the euro may fall to as low as 0.9545 against the dollar in the next four weeks.

The last time the euro reached this low against the dollar was in 2002.

The European Central Bank is expected to announce its first interest rate hike in 11 years on the 21st local time.

　　The United States suppresses the euro by creating a geopolitical crisis

　　On the one hand, in order to avoid risks, the Fed tightened monetary policy, raised interest rates several times, and passed the crisis on to other countries; on the other hand, it was the weak economic performance of Europe itself and its follow-up of the United States in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, and implemented multiple rounds against Russia. Sanctions and other actions have made the collapse of the euro an expected reality, and Europe has paid for the United States in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.

Looking back on history, although the euro once formed the biggest potential challenge to the hegemony of the dollar in the international capital market, 20 years later, it is still only a potential challenge.

One of them is the suppression of the euro by the United States in order to maintain the hegemony of the dollar. The several geopolitical crises that the United States created or vigorously helped in the past 20 years have strengthened the status of the dollar without exception.

　　On January 1, 1999, the euro was launched as a bookkeeping and transfer currency in 11 EU member states, marking the birth of the euro.

This is regarded as a major event in the history of international currencies. Europe has integrated internal forces through a unified currency, and the euro has high expectations from the outside world.

　　Just two months later, the United States led NATO to bomb the Yugoslavia without the authorization of the United Nations, under the banner of "preventing the humanitarian crisis in Kosovo", and the Kosovo War broke out.

The war caused panic among international capital, who had been very optimistic about Europe, and fled one after another in search of a more stable economic environment. As a result, the exchange rate of the euro against the US dollar fell all the way since its birth.

Even though the Kosovo war ended in June 1999, the euro remained weak, falling below parity with the dollar against the dollar at the end of 1999.

　　In November 2000, the Iraqi government announced that it would change its oil sales from dollars to euros, and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries has repeatedly expressed its consideration of switching to euros. After the official circulation of banknotes and coins, the exchange rate of the euro against the dollar gradually returned to parity, and then the euro continued to appreciate.

　　In 2003, the United States launched a military attack on Iraq under the banner of "Iraq has weapons of mass destruction", but after the use of force, the so-called weapons of mass destruction were not found. Instead, Iraqi oil was restored to be settled in dollars and the euro was abandoned .

　　Then-U.S. Representative Ron Paul (2006): Most importantly, the dollar's relationship with oil must be maintained, allowing the dollar to maintain its dominance, and any attack on that relationship will be met with forceful counter-attacks.

In November 2000, Saddam demanded that Iraqi oil be denominated in euros, and his arrogance was a threat to the dollar.

　　U.S. credit rating agencies add fuel to Europe's debt crisis

　　In addition to launching wars, the United States does not hesitate to use other means to maintain its hegemony of the dollar.

When Europe encountered a sovereign debt crisis, the three major rating agencies from the United States continued to add fuel to the flames, exporting and passing on the risks of the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States, boosting the dollar and putting pressure on the euro.

　　From 2007 to 2008, the U.S. suffered a subprime mortgage crisis and the economy was hit hard.

In order to save the market, the Federal Reserve started quantitative easing, printing a large number of dollars, and the dollar continued to depreciate.

It can be seen from the trend of the euro against the US dollar that from August 2007 to March 2008, the exchange rate of the euro against the US dollar rose all the way, from 1:1.36 in August 2007 to 1:1.58 in March 2008 .

Under such circumstances, huge amounts of money fled from the United States to Europe.

　　At that time, in Europe on the other side of the ocean, a crisis was quietly brewing.

In October 2009, the Greek government exposed its debt problems.

At that time, due to the economic recession brought about by the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States, Greece's two pillar industries: tourism and shipping entered a cold winter, and Greece's financial situation was poor.

In December 2009, the three major international rating agencies: Moody's, Standard & Poor's and Fitch reacted and downgraded Greece's sovereign credit rating. The crisis first broke out in Greece.

Not only Greece, but also the three major rating agencies have successively downgraded the sovereign credit ratings of Portugal, Spain, Italy and Ireland, making these countries more difficult to obtain financing, higher costs, and worsening their public debt situation.

This vicious circle makes it harder for countries stuck in debt crisis to get out of the predicament, helping to push the crisis deeper.

On the other hand, in the United States, the domestic economic recovery stabilized after the second half of 2011. With the escalation of the European debt crisis, the demand for safe-haven of international capital has greatly increased, and capital has returned to the United States.

　　Barroso, the then president of the European Commission, once questioned: Is it reasonable that a matter as sensitive as a country's sovereign credit rating is in the hands of only three institutions, and these three institutions are all from the same country?

　　Li Yong, deputy director of the Expert Committee of the China Society for International Trade: Since the international financial crisis in 2008, the credibility of the three major US rating agencies has plummeted.

Dan Thomas, a senior American media person, believes that the US sovereign rating agency has always played a role in politics.

S&P doesn't shy away from politics in its ratings.

During the European debt crisis, the three major rating agencies repeatedly attacked the European Union, but they ignored the US debt problem for a long time. The US rating agencies, which have control over the international rating agency, have adopted "double standards" in order to safeguard the interests of the United States, which cannot objectively reveal the country's creditworthiness. risky.

Behind the European debt crisis is a deeper contest.

That is, the war between the United States and Europe for currency dominance and debt resources.