China News Service, July 13 (Shi Rui and Peng Jingru) On the 13th, the State Council Information Office held a press conference on the financial statistics in the first half of 2022, focusing on the incident of Henan village banks, whether to cut interest rates in the second half of the year, and why residents' willingness to save increased And other hot topics, the People's Bank of China responded one by one.
Will the village bank incident cause banking system risk?
Sun Tianqi, director of the Financial Stability Bureau of the People's Bank of China, said that since the Henan Rural Bank's risk incident occurred, the People's Bank of China has actively cooperated with local governments and regulatory authorities to respond prudently, instructed branches to fulfill their responsibilities for maintaining regional financial stability, and ensured liquidity risk monitoring and emergency protection. .
Sun Tianqi said that on the whole, my country's financial risks are restrained and generally controllable, and 99% of banking assets are within the safe boundary.
By the end of 2021, the total assets of my country's banking institutions are 345 trillion yuan, accounting for 90% of the total assets of the entire financial industry.
We say that "bank stability is financial stability". The central bank's rating results in the fourth quarter of 2021 show that among the 4,398 banking institutions participating in the evaluation, there are 4,082 financial institutions in the 1-7 level within the margin of safety, and the number of institutions accounts for the number of participating institutions in the banking industry. 93% of the total, and the asset scale accounts for 99% of the participating institutions in the banking industry.
Among them, the rating of 24 large banks has always remained at the 1-5 level, which is an excellent rating. The asset scale accounts for 70% of the entire banking industry participating institutions, and they are the ballast of the entire financial industry.
A total of 316 high-risk institutions are classified as 8-D.
The number of high-risk institutions accounted for 7% of the participating institutions in the banking industry, but the asset size only accounted for 1% of the institutions participating in the banking industry evaluation.
In other words, the central bank ratings of the vast majority of small and medium-sized banks are within the safe boundary.
Are there any plans to cut interest rates in the
second half of the year
?
Zou Lan, director of the Monetary Policy Department of the People's Bank of China, said at the press conference that at present, the weighted average 7-day repurchase interest rate of depository institutions in the interbank market is currently around 1.6%, which is lower than the open market operation rate, and liquidity remains relatively low. At a level that is reasonably sufficient and slightly excessive, the corporate loan interest rate from January to June was 4.32%, down 0.31 percentage points year-on-year, and continued to be stable with some declines, hitting a new low since statistics began.
In the future, the People's Bank of China will, in accordance with the deployment of the Party Central Committee and the State Council, comprehensively consider economic growth, price situation and other fundamentals, rationally match monetary policy tools, maintain reasonably sufficient liquidity, further promote financial institutions to reduce corporate financing costs, and create suitable opportunities for consolidating economic recovery. monetary and financial environment.
At the same time, the central bank is highly concerned about the accelerated tightening of monetary policies in major economies.
In the early stage, measures such as adjusting the foreign exchange deposit reserve ratio and strengthening the macro-prudential management of cross-border capital flows have been adopted for forward-looking responses, which have reduced the negative spillover impact caused by changes in the external environment to a certain extent.
The RMB exchange rate fluctuated in both directions and remained at a reasonable level, and cross-border capital flows were generally stable.
At the same time, as a super-large economy, my country's domestic monetary and financial conditions are mainly determined by domestic factors. The monetary policy will continue to adhere to the orientation of self-centeredness, taking into account internal and external balance.
What is the situation of my country's macro leverage ratio?
Ruan Jianhong, director of the Investigation and Statistics Department of the People's Bank of China, said that since the fourth quarter of 2020, my country has achieved remarkable results in stabilizing leverage and promoting growth. policy space.
In the first quarter of 2022, my country's macro leverage ratio was 277.1%, 4.6 percentage points higher than the end of the previous year.
Ruan Jianhong said that since the beginning of this year, the downward pressure on the economy has further increased due to changes in the international situation and the unexpected impact of a new round of epidemics.
Macro leverage is the ratio of total debt to GDP, and a slowdown in economic growth will push macro leverage higher.
At the same time, in response to the downward pressure, efforts were made to stabilize the macroeconomic market, and a package of measures to stabilize the economy was further deployed.
The impact of these counter-cyclical control policies on debt growth will be reflected in the current period, but the impact on output will be relatively lagging, so the macro leverage ratio will rise in stages.
This is not only an objective reflection of external shocks, but also a manifestation of counter-cyclical control policies helping to stabilize the macroeconomic market.
He said that although the risks and challenges faced by my country's economic development have increased significantly this year, the fundamentals of my country's economic development have not changed.
As the domestic epidemic prevention and control situation continues to improve, and the implementation of a package of policies and measures to stabilize the economy has accelerated, my country's economy has shown a clear momentum of recovery.
This also creates conditions for maintaining a reasonable level of macro leverage in the future.
How do you view the increase in personal savings willingness?
In the second quarter, the People’s Bank of China’s survey of depositors showed that 58.3% of the residents preferred “more savings”, an increase of 3.6 percentage points from the previous quarter, and 17.9% of residents preferred “more investment”, a decrease from the previous quarter up 3.7 percentage points.
Ruan Jianhong analyzed that the marginal increase in the willingness of residents to save deposits and the marginal decrease in the willingness to invest is mainly due to the repeated outbreak of the new crown pneumonia in some parts of my country in the second quarter, and the residents' preference for liquidity has increased.
At the same time, the volatility of the capital market has increased, and residents' risk appetite has decreased. It is expected that with the gradual easing of the epidemic, residents' willingness to invest will gradually recover, and their willingness to consume will steadily return.
(Zhongxin Finance)