Standard Chartered Bank: US and European growth is expected to slow in the second half of the year, China's prospects are expected to improve

　　China News Service, July 13. Recently, Standard Chartered Bank released the "Global Market Outlook" report for the second half of 2022.

The report mainly focuses on topics that will affect the direction of the global economy in the second half of the year, such as U.S. inflation, economic recession, and China's economic recovery.

　　Standard Chartered pointed out that US inflation may peak in the first half of the year, but the rate of easing will be very slow, and the annual rate of inflation will stabilize at above 6% by the end of 2022 (compared to 8% in the first half of the year), and will reach the second quarter of 2023. 4%.

While long-term inflation expectations remain capped for now, new supply chain disruptions and another surge in oil prices could push inflation higher.

That means the Fed, which has pledged to fight price pressures "unconditionally", could erroneously choose to tighten until inflation clearly turns to a sustainable low.

Therefore, the Fed is expected to raise rates by 150 basis points on an existing basis.

　　In addition, Standard Chartered predicts that

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A U.S. recession is not inevitable, but to avoid it, the Federal Reserve has to be very careful to "walk the tightrope", tightening policy without overturning the U.S. economy.

While China's economic downturn in the first half of the year is coming to an end, the likelihood of an economic recovery has increased as China's fiscal and credit policies turn more supportive and business regulations ease.

(Zhongxin Finance)