Joe Biden in Saudi Arabia: reconciliation despite denials
President Joe Biden boards Air Force One for a trip to Israel and Saudi Arabia, Tuesday, July 12, 2022, at Andrews Air Force Base, Md. AP - Gemunu Amarasinghe
Text by: Guilhem Delteil Follow
6 mins
Joe Biden begins this Wednesday, July 13, his first tour of the Near and Middle East since his accession to the White House.
The US President is due to land in Tel Aviv this afternoon.
A first Israeli-Palestinian stage during which he will meet the leaders of the two parties.
But the most significant step is certainly the one that will begin on Friday, when he arrives in Saudi Arabia.
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Joe Biden was not yet president.
Candidate for the Democratic Party against Donald Trump, strong support of Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.
He took the opposite view of his opponent and declared that he wanted to make Saudi Arabia a "
pariah
" on the international scene.
In question, the role of its
de facto
leader in
the assassination of journalist Jamal Khashoggi
.
Having become president, he had continued on the same path and declassified a CIA report which accused Mohammed ben Salman of having "validated" this murder.
The report had been rejected by Riyadh, but its publication put pressure on Mohammed bin Salman, who had become
persona non grata
in many countries.
The tone was set by Washington: no question of treating Saudi Arabia with as much consideration as Donald Trump had done.
The Biden administration was going to reintroduce values into its diplomacy.
“
Reorient
” relationships
But a year and a half later, the same Joe Biden will visit Jeddah on his first trip as president to the Middle East.
The decision is seen as a turnaround in his own camp.
So the American president
is trying to defend himself
.
On Saturday, he published a
column
in the
Washington Post
, the newspaper for which Jamal Khashoggi worked.
He defends his record in the Middle East, in particular his support for Saudi opponents.
And affirms that it was never a question for him of
"breaking"
ties with Riyadh, an ally
"
for 80 years
"
, but of
"
reorienting
"
relations.
But the meaning of the platform challenges.
"
It's unprecedented in the diplomatic use of publishing and self-justification
," notes Hasni Abidi, director of Cernam, the center for studies and research on the Arab and Mediterranean world and political scientist at the University of Geneva.
For him, it betrays a very real malaise in Joe Biden: “
In my opinion, he is convinced that his first position was a position dictated by his convictions.
The president was still showered by the murder of Jamal Khashoggi.
It was he who downgraded the CIA report: that's something!
But he is also the one who goes to Saudi Arabia
”.
Noticeable discomfort
This visit marks a rapprochement with Riyadh, despite the efforts of the White House to reduce the scope of this step.
The American administration as a whole, however, has never succeeded in removing this malaise.
For weeks, she did not want to confirm the rumors about this visit.
Then, she then denied the importance of the interactions between Joe Biden and Mohammed bin Salman.
The American president must attend a meeting of the Gulf Cooperation Council, the regional organization which brings together the countries of the Peninsula with the exception of Yemen, then have a bilateral meeting with King Salman of Saudi Arabia.
In both cases, the White House acknowledges that the crown prince will be present, but it says there will be no direct meeting with Mohamed bin Salman.
An unrealistic prospect.
"
Let's not forget that King Salman is a very old man who is sovereign without really governing
," notes Guillaume Fourmont, editor-in-chief of the reviews Middle East and Carto
.
To say that the arrival of Joe Biden will be entirely under the authority of King Salman?
Let's not be so naive!
Mohammed ben Salman will have plenty of time to share his views with the American president.
»
This reversal can be explained first of all by a continuity in American diplomacy in the Middle East.
During this first visit to the region, Joe Biden travels to Israel, the Palestinian Territories and Saudi Arabia.
Israel and Arabia are two of the biggest allies of the United States in the Middle East, regardless of the administrations in place in Washington.
And given the lack of progress in the negotiations with Iran, the regional deal has not changed so far.
Iran and its allies are still active in Iraq, Syria and Yemen.
Washington therefore needs its traditional allies: a certain geopolitical realism is at stake.
“
Energy ally
”
But the main factor is not regional, it is the war in Ukraine.
Since February, energy prices have soared.
And even in a country like the United States that has become energy independent, this rise in prices has led to inflation that weighs on consumers.
Four months before the mid-term elections, Joe Biden therefore wants to stem this inflation.
"
The oil question is decisive for the mid-term elections: it is absolutely necessary to absorb inflation
," said Hasni Abidi, who edited the book
The Middle East according to Joe Biden
.
For that, he is counting on Riyadh.
"
In a tense energy context, the United States absolutely wants to have a strong energy ally,
" explains Guillaume Fourmont.
Simply put, Saudi Arabia holds the world's oil tap.
Therefore, one of Joe Biden's priorities will certainly be to address the question of Saudi's place in the energy market and to encourage Mohammed bin Salman to turn on the tap to reduce the price pressure on oil.
»
► To read also: Oil: despite Western pressure, the OPEC + countries do not open the floodgates
The war in Ukraine has put Saudi Arabia, a time isolated after the murder of Jamal Khashoggi, back at the heart of global geopolitics.
And in general, the Gulf countries find themselves in a position of strength, believes Hasni Abidi: “
Today, we know very well that the hour of the Gulf has come
”.
But the director of Cernam warns: “
the Gulf States have changed.
Today, they also have their requirements.
They are ready to step in to help the United States but they have their conditions
".
Those of Saudi Arabia concern its armament: Riyadh demands that no restrictions be put in place on arms sales.
Then, it concerns Yemen: Saudi Arabia, engaged militarily in its neighbor, demands that the Houthi rebel movement, supported by Iran, be considered a terrorist organization.
"
We see that the United States is about to accede to two of the Saudi demands
," said Hasni Abidi.
French President
Emmanuel Macron was the first to visit Saudi Arabia
since the assassination of Jamal Khashoggi;
it was last December.
Since then, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has also been there.
And Mohammed bin Salman undertook a regional tour last month.
The isolation of the Saudi Crown Prince is well and truly over and in this regard, Joe Biden's visit to Jeddah is a strong symbol.
But given the oratorical precautions of the Biden administration surrounding this Saudi stage, the young Saudi leader will probably still have to wait before having an invitation to the White House.
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United States
Saudi Arabia
Joe Biden
Mohammad bin Salman
Diplomacy