China News Service, Beijing, July 13 (Reporter Li Xiaoyu) The General Administration of Customs of China announced on the 13th China's foreign trade "transcript". In the first half of the year, the total value of China's import and export of goods trade increased by 9.4% year-on-year, of which exports increased by 13.2%.

In June, the total import and export value increased by 14.3% year-on-year.

　　Scholars here believe that at a time when the global economy is in a downturn, the direct reason why China's foreign trade has been booming recently is that the Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta region, which is the "pillar" of foreign trade, has gradually recovered from the epidemic, driving the overall improvement of imports and exports.

　　According to official data, the import and export of the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta increased by 4.8% and 2.8% year-on-year respectively in May, and the growth rate in June further rebounded to 14.9% and 6.4%.

　　Gao Lingyun, a researcher at the Institute of World Economics and Politics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said in an interview with a reporter from China News Agency that there is a "spring effect" in the development of foreign trade, and the rebound will be stronger after the interference factors are removed.

The recent sharp rebound in imports and exports in the Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta region is the embodiment of the "spring effect".

　　However, he also reminded that the "spring effect" of foreign trade this time was not as strong as expected, because the European economy was in multiple difficulties due to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, and the operation of China-Europe trains was also disrupted, resulting in a slower growth rate of China-EU trade compared with the first quarter. dropped.

　　The gradual emergence of a series of foreign trade stabilization policies is also one of the reasons for the stabilization of foreign trade.

Li Kuiwen, a spokesman for the General Administration of Customs, said that with the implementation of the national package of policies and measures to stabilize the economy, various tasks such as maintaining the stability and improving the quality of foreign trade have been accelerated, and the vitality of foreign trade market players has been effectively stimulated.

　　Official data shows that in the first half of this year, the number of foreign trade enterprises with import and export performance increased by 5.5% year-on-year, and the import and export of various foreign trade entities maintained growth, among which the import and export of private enterprises increased by 13.6%, 4.2 percentage points higher than the overall growth rate. , boosting China's foreign trade growth by 6.5 percentage points.

　　In the first half of the year, China's foreign trade developed a "V" shape: the growth rate was relatively stable at the beginning of the year, declined in March and April, and rose again in May.

　　In Gao Lingyun's view, the trend of China's foreign trade in the second half of the year may be more optimistic than that in the first half of the year. The reason is that most of the orders that were once outflowed from China in March and April due to the epidemic are now returning, and various blocking points in the logistics and industrial chain supply chain are obstructing It is also being repaired in time.

Although new variants of the epidemic have emerged and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has not yet ended, which has brought hidden worries to China's foreign trade, on the whole, China's foreign trade is still expected to grow by more than 4% this year, which may be the best performance among major global powers. one of the best.

　　Li Kuiwen also said that with the implementation of the country's package of policies and measures to stabilize the economy and the orderly progress of resumption of work and production, China's foreign trade is expected to continue to maintain steady growth.

　　However, some analysts believe that in the era of "black swans" flying around, China's foreign trade may not be easy.

　　Bai Ming, deputy director of the International Market Research Institute of the Institute of International Trade and Economic Cooperation of the Ministry of Commerce, told reporters that China's foreign trade will face several major challenges in the second half of the year: first, the European and American economies may continue to decline for a long time due to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, and external demand may shrink; second There is a possibility of a resurgence of the epidemic; the third is fierce competition from neighboring countries such as Vietnam.

　　Bai Ming said that in the face of various uncertainties, the most important thing for China's foreign trade is to accelerate the transformation and upgrading, and create a number of new growth points including new energy vehicles, which is a long-term strategy to resist external shocks.

In addition, the member countries of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) and the markets along the “Belt and Road” should also be deeply cultivated.

(Finish)