Mortgage market rates in Russia have fallen to a minimum for the last five months.
Such data on Monday, July 11, was presented by the company "DOM.RF".
According to her latest estimates, the average interest on mortgage loans for new buildings in the 20 largest Russian banks fell to 10.7%, and for secondary housing - to 10.82% per annum.
The last time such values were in mid-February.
“The observed dynamics is primarily associated with the reduction of the key rate by the Central Bank.
As soon as the Central Bank reduced the indicator again, banks followed it and began to lower market rates on mortgages for new buildings and secondary housing.
Thus, the financial sector is trying to attract customers, ”Konstantin Aprelev, vice president of the Russian Guild of Realtors, explained to RT.
Recall that at the end of February, the Central Bank more than doubled the key rate - from 9.5 to 20% per annum.
Such a measure was necessary to curb inflation in the face of sanctions.
In response to the actions of the regulator, Russian banks began to massively raise interest rates on loans, and already in the second half of March, market mortgage rates reached an average of 20.4–20.8%, and in some cases exceeded 24% per annum.
The sharp rise in the cost of loans led to a noticeable fall in the mortgage market in the country.
So, if in March Russian banks issued about 162.8 thousand housing loans for 521.3 billion rubles, then in April citizens issued only 49.4 thousand loans for 161.6 billion rubles, and in May - 36.6 thousand by 139.7 billion rubles, according to the materials of the Central Bank.
However, as the situation in the economy stabilized, the Central Bank began to gradually reduce the key rate in April and returned it to the pre-sanction level of 9.5% per annum in June.
Credit institutions responded accordingly, and the mortgage market began to grow again.
© RIA Novosti / Anton Denisov
According to preliminary estimates of specialists, in June banks provided citizens with about 65,000 housing loans worth 250-255 billion rubles.
Thus, compared with May, the indicator increased by almost 80% in quantitative and monetary terms.
“We are seeing the first signs of an improvement in the situation on the mortgage market in Russia… Mortgage dynamics inspire optimism regarding the fulfillment of the president's instructions to maintain the growth of the mortgage portfolio at the level of last year - at least 2.5 trillion rubles.
We believe that these indicators will be achieved,” Yuri Achkasov, deputy head of the DOM.RF analytical center, said on July 7.
In the future, the situation on the mortgage market will largely continue to depend on the decisions of the Central Bank, experts believe.
Thus, in June, for the first time in the past two years, monthly deflation was recorded in Russia - against the backdrop of weak demand, prices for goods and services on average in the country decreased by 0.35% compared to May.
Under these conditions, the Central Bank may continue to reduce the key rate to revive consumer activity, experts admit.
“The lower the key rate of the Central Bank falls, the lower will be the interest on mortgage loans.
If the regulator lowers the rate to 6% per annum, then interest rates on loans without subsidies can start from 7% per annum.
However, it is still difficult to make accurate forecasts, so it will be necessary to monitor the actions of the Central Bank, ”explained Gleb Finkelstein, specialist in the Strategic Research Department of Total Research, in an interview with RT.
preferential treatment
The revival of activity in the Russian mortgage market will continue in July, Yuri Achkasov believes.
He noted that, in addition to lowering rates, the restoration of the segment is also facilitated by the implementation of preferential programs.
Recall that until the end of 2022, all Russians can take out a loan to buy real estate at a reduced rate of 7% per annum.
In addition, until the end of 2023, families with one or more children born from January 1, 2018 to December 31, 2022 have the opportunity to apply for a mortgage at 6% per annum (5% for the Far Eastern Federal District when a child is born from January 1 2019).
The maximum loan amount under the preferential and family mortgage programs depends on the region.
So, you can get a loan at a reduced rate when buying real estate worth up to 12 million rubles in the Moscow and St. Petersburg agglomerations and up to 6 million rubles in other regions of the country.
In addition, within the framework of both initiatives, citizens can take loans in the amount of up to 30 million and 15 million rubles, respectively.
However, the subsidized rate in this case still applies only to amounts up to 12 million and 6 million rubles (depending on the region) - the rest must be paid on market terms.
It is curious that the banks themselves often issue such loans at a lower interest rate than indicated in the programs.
So, at the moment, you can get a preferential mortgage at an average of 6.63%, and a family one at 5.64% per annum.
“In general, the list of subsidized programs has expanded significantly in recent years.
In addition to subsidized and family mortgages, there are career options and various regional initiatives.
All of them stimulate demand, which leads to an increase in the number of transactions.
Therefore, in July, the issuance of loans can really grow even more compared to June, ”Konstantin Aprelev suggested.
© RIA Novosti / Nina Zotina
Price target
According to Aprelev, in the near future, prices for new housing in Russia will mainly depend on the position of developers.
As the specialist said, today the sales volumes of developers have decreased by about two to three times compared to the peak levels of 2020-2021.
Lowering rates allows you to attract new customers, but if the rate of implementation of objects does not increase significantly, then companies will begin to reduce prices in order to avoid overstocking the market, the expert did not rule out.
“In addition, it is necessary to take into account the possibilities for developers to obtain project financing.
Against this background, the following settlement scheme is gaining popularity: if the buyer gives real money, and not mortgage funds, then developers are ready to make a 15-30% discount,” Aprelev noted.
At the same time, Gleb Finkelstein does not expect a significant reduction in the cost of square meters.
According to the analyst, in the foreseeable future, the market for new buildings will be fueled by excitement, so until the end of the year prices may vary within 2-3%, both up and down.
“As for ready-made housing, mortgage rates in this segment are higher, and the demand for such apartments is lower, since they have risen in price too much over the past two years.
Therefore, the secondary, most likely, will slowly but surely decrease in price, ”the expert concluded.