Russia temporarily closes Nord Stream 1 and Germany prepares for the worst

The gas pipeline through which Germany is supplied with Russian gas, the Nord Stream 1, has stopped pumping this Monday for a

.

The cut for maintenance work was planned, but the Government and the Federal Network Agency fear that Moscow will not resume supply, which would lead the first economy of the European Union to the abyss of recession.

Last year, the maintenance works on Nord Stream 1 lasted from July 13 to 23, but Economy Minister Robery Habeck suspects that this year these works will become an instrument of political pressure and will continue

.

Habeck

and has been preparing for weeks the population and the industry to save for a hard and cold winter.

His mantra is saving in these months of mild temperatures in order to fill the reserves for the winter.

The advice on reducing the time in the shower or the speed on the highways, however, does not dispel the threats or say much about a political class that only offers advice on problems.

Not receiving any gas would mean the end of many companies.

Germany's largest consumer is the Ludwigshafen-based chemical company BASF.

The chemical industry, with gas as its operating resource, needs about two-fifths of the gas that reaches commercial consumers in Germany.

Other large consumers are the pharmaceutical, textile, metallurgical and automobile industries, as well as printing and beverage manufacturers.

"Companies are very worried because they hardly have any alternatives to gas," says

of the German Association of the Chemical Industry.

"There are still some companies that can switch to oil or coal burners, provided the licensing issues are resolved, but they are few.

."

In an emergency, if market-based processes do not lead to the desired result, state intervention would be necessary.

Macroeconomic damage would be considerable and social disruption cannot be ruled out.

The central question is how to ensure the survival of gas importers, who currently have to pay around €130 for gas with an energy value of one megawatt hour, but have long-term supply contracts with revenues of perhaps €20;

This can't go on like this for long.

If the laws of the market economy were to impose themselves,

, hence the state intervention in the case of the German subsidiary of Gazprom and the current talks with Uniper, Germany's largest supplier and with serious difficulties.

.

The debate now focuses on the effects of a gas cut.

Estimates vary greatly, depending on the duration.

, of the Leibniz Institute for Economic Research in Halle, believes that if Norway increased its gas deliveries to Germany and German consumers reduced their consumption, "then we could get through the winter without gas shortages and without rationing".

The problems, however,

.

"If the gas supply were permanently lacking, the storage facilities could not be filled next summer, and then we would have the same problem in the winter," he maintains. At the moment the reserves are at 63%, which is essential to get through the winter. .

Other models see

, not counting the collapse that would ensue in financial markets.

Capital markets expert Halver isn't so sure.

"Putin is a chess player, he is technically adept. I don't imagine him cutting off the gas completely. He would give up the last big trick of his," he maintains.

But the truth is that the threat of a gas shortage has kept the markets on edge.

The main German index DAX has lost 12% of its value in the last month due to uncertainty.

"Many have already left the market. Very shaky hands are already out," says Baader Bank analyst

.

The president of the Federal Network Agency,

, considers it more than likely that the regular maintenance of Nord Stream 1 "will turn into a more lasting political maintenance".

If that happens, "the 12 weeks until the start of the heating season should be used to make preparations," he said.

Müller has urged all homeowners to quickly check their gas condensing boilers and radiators and adjust them effectively.

"Maintenance can reduce gas consumption by 10% to 15% and that has to be done now, not in the fall," she stressed.

At the same time, Müller warned of the danger of putting the wrong emphasis on saving energy.

"The crisis situation is related to gas, and not to electricity. Germany is not facing a shortage of electricity and we don't have a shortage of gasoline and oil either. All of that is available."

According to Müller, both homes and hospitals or nursing homes

.

"I can promise that we will do everything we can to prevent private households from running out of gas," she said.

The senator for the Environment of the city-state of Hamburg,

, does not, however, rule out limiting hot water in homes in an emergency.

"In an emergency due to a gas shortage, hot water might only be available at certain times of the day," he told the

newspaper .

And the possibility of generally reducing the maximum ambient temperature in the district heating network could also be considered.

"For technical reasons, it will not be possible in Hamburg to distinguish between commercial and private customers in the event of a gas shortage," he argued.

In the event that the industrial plants have to be disconnected from the gas supply, the Federal Network Agency will proceed with the triage.

"We are guided by the business damages, the economic ones, the social consequences and also the technical requirements of operation of the gas network", explained Müller.

In a gas emergency, "we cannot classify all operations as systemically relevant," he stressed.

The parts of the food and pharmaceutical industry will have priority.

Products and services entering the leisure and wellness sector would be of secondary importance.

Swimming pools are probably not in the critical area, nor is the production of chocolate chip cookies."

In an open letter published by the daily

, the Secretary of State for the Economy,

, has recommended that companies

.

The manufacturer of consumer goods Henkel will opt for telecommuting.

"By greatly reducing the temperature in the offices, we will help our employees to heat their homes within normal limits," said Henkel CEO Carsten Knobel.

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