Our reporter Jiao Yue Shi Lu

  "The recent drop in spot freight prices on popular routes is due to the fact that, on the one hand, the number of domestic export orders has decreased year-on-year; on the other hand, the supply chain in the container shipping market is gradually recovering, and the super cycle caused by the structural mismatch between supply and demand may It is coming to an end, and the crazy scene of 'snatching the space and grabbing the box' is gone." A freight forwarding practitioner told the "Securities Daily" reporter.

  After two years of "super peak season", the container shipping industry seems to have ushered in an "inflection point".

According to data from the Shanghai Shipping Exchange, on July 8, the China Export Containerized Freight Index (CCFI) was 3232.18 points, down 1.2% from the previous issue (July 1), and the prices of all popular routes fell.

Among them, the European routes decreased by 2% compared with the previous issue, and the freight rate of the European routes decreased by 14% since February; the US West routes decreased by 2.5% compared with the previous issue, and the US East routes decreased by 1.7% compared with the previous issue.

  Does this mean that the "inflection point" of the container shipping industry has come?

In this regard, Xiang Weili, executive director of Sullivan's Greater China region, told the "Securities Daily" reporter: "The overall performance of CCFI is still stable. Due to the uncertainty of commodity demand, shipping prices are expected to remain high and volatile in the short term."

  The spot freight rate fell below the long-term agreement

  Shipping giants withdraw their ships and guarantee freight rates

  Recently, a freight forwarder posted an advertisement of "selling boxes at a discount" in the circle of friends, attracting onlookers, and the grand occasion of "hard to find a box" in the container shipping market seems to be yesterday.

  A Yiwu foreign trade company CEO told the "Securities Daily" reporter: "At present, it is easier to find space and boxes than last year, and the shipping price has also dropped a lot compared with last year, but foreign trade factories are facing the unfavorable situation of reduced orders from Europe and the United States."

  According to the latest World Containerized Freight Index (WCI) released by Drewry, an international shipping research and consulting agency, the spot freight rate from Shanghai to Los Angeles fell by 4%, or US$300 to US$7,652/FEU, down 16% from the same period in 2021. ; Spot freight from Shanghai to New York fell 2% to $10,154/FEU, down 13% from the same period in 2021.

  Throughout the first half of 2022, the price of container shipping from Shanghai to Europe and the United States has shown a gloomy decline, and even the spot freight rate has fallen below the long-term agreement price.

According to market rumors, some cargo owners have proposed to renegotiate the long-term price with the freight forwarder.

  A freight forwarder told the "Securities Daily" reporter: "Many long-term agreements were signed at the end of last year and at the beginning of this year. At that time, the market was hot and the freight rate was high. For example, last year, the shipping price of the US route was as high as 20,000 US dollars/FEU. At present, it is about to fall below $7,000/FEU, and the European route is also expected to fall below $10,000/FEU, which is already lower than the long-term agreement signed by some cargo owners."

  Regarding the volatile decline in container shipping prices, the Founder Futures report pointed out, "Global inflation is high, European and American central banks have accelerated the pace of monetary tightening, and the marginal growth rate of demand has slowed down sharply, or even decreased month-on-month. Since January, many countries around the world have gradually liberalized the epidemic and fully controlled the epidemic. As a result of these measures, the on-time rate and turnover efficiency of ships have rebounded sharply, and the freight rate has continued to fall under the circumstance that the supply of space has increased and the growth rate of demand has slowed down significantly.”

  As the spot price fell, some shipping companies lowered the freight rate under the guidance of the government.

International container giant CMA CMA CGM said that starting from August 1 this year, when large local French retailers import consumer goods through CMA CMA, each 40-foot standard container can get a discount of 500 euros, which is roughly equivalent to a 10% discount.

For all containers destined for the French overseas territories, a discount of 500 euros can also be obtained, a discount of about 10% to 20%.

  In the face of the drop in shipping prices, international shipping giants began to "withdraw" to reduce effective shipping capacity and maintain stable shipping prices.

  The latest data released by Drewry on July 8 shows that in the next five weeks (weeks 27 to 31), the world's three major shipping alliances will cancel 61 voyages one after another.

Among them, the 2M Alliance and THE Alliance have the most cancelled voyages, both reaching 23 voyages; the fewest Ocean Alliance cancelled 15 voyages.

Among the 760 scheduled sailings on major routes such as trans-Pacific, trans-Atlantic, Asia-Nordic and Asia-Mediterranean, 86 sailings were cancelled between weeks 27 and 31, with a cancellation rate of 11%.

In addition, Drewry data shows that over the next five weeks, 66% of blank sailings (empty ships) will occur on the trans-Pacific eastbound trade routes, mainly to the U.S. West Coast.

  Consolidation prices fluctuate in the short term

  The future of the industry's prosperity is uncertain

  Xiang Weilian said: "From the perspective of this year, the overall freight rate of the container shipping market remains relatively high. Intensified inflation in the United States may affect the daily consumption habits of residents and bring about changes in commodity demand and supply. At the same time, consumers The way of shopping is also gradually changing, and more people are turning to online platforms.

  In addition, the Industrial Securities Research Report believes that domestic exports have maintained growth, and the demand in the container shipping market has remained stable.

With the improvement of the domestic epidemic prevention and control situation, there is room for repair and supplementary increase in freight rates in the container shipping market.

  Yu Nan, an analyst at Haitong Securities, said in his analysis that the high prosperity continued at the beginning of this year, and the balance of supply and demand was still at a relatively fragile stage.

After experiencing the hot market of global container shipping in 2021, although the freight rate has dropped at the beginning of this year, it still maintains a high level.

On the demand side, according to the IMF's forecast, the growth rate of global trade volume in 2022 will be 6.7%, and the import demand of developed countries has not weakened. The import volume growth rate of developed countries is expected to be 7.3%.

At the same time, the Asia-North America route, which is a popular route in 2021, still has room for growth due to the current U.S. retail inventory-to-sales ratio is still at a historically low level. In addition, the U.S. retail sales volume is still rising, which is expected to continue to promote the demand for freight on the U.S. line.

  "As of mid-May, the global container shipping capacity in ports accounted for nearly 37%, which was still higher than the average level of 31% before the epidemic." Yu Nan believes that this means that with the further resumption of work and production, and Europe and the United States usher in traditional Congestion may continue during peak consumption seasons.

  In addition, Yu Nan also said that at present, the industry has become obvious, which has a certain stable effect on freight rates.

For example, the three major shipping alliances (2M Alliance, Ocean Alliance, THE Alliance) currently occupy more than 80% of the market share, which can effectively control the supply of shipping capacity to cope with changes in the demand side.

"We think it is more likely that the short-term freight rate will continue to fluctuate at a high level, and it may stabilize at a reasonable price in the medium and long term."

  However, the Guotai Junan Securities Research Report issued an early warning. Although the volume of US-bound shipments since the beginning of the year is still at a high level, slightly lower than the high growth rate in 2019, considering that the impact of the US epidemic has weakened and physical consumption is shifting to service consumption, it is recommended to focus on vigilance. Demand inflection point risk.

Congestion at ports in the West of the United States has been significantly improved.

With the weakening of the impact of the epidemic in the United States, the efficiency of the inland supply chain has improved, and the supply chain disorder is gradually easing.

It is expected that in the first half of the year, the net profit rate of container shipping companies is expected to remain at a high level, and in the second half of the year, there will be uncertain risks in the continued high prosperity of the industry.

(Securities Daily)