On July 9, data released by the National Bureau of Statistics showed that the national consumer price in June rose by 2.5% year-on-year, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month.
Previously, the market had expected an upward trend in the CPI.
Regarding the inflationary pressure in the second half of the year, market institutions analyzed that the suppressing effect of pork prices on the CPI has quietly changed to a lifting effect.
In July, with the arrival of the flood season, the price of fresh vegetables has rebounded and the cyclical rise of pork is superimposed, and there may be some pressure on food prices.
The recent phased fall in commodity prices will ease some of the imported inflationary pressures.
CPI is expected to maintain a moderate rise in the second half of the year.
CPI rose 2.5% year-on-year, and the increase expanded
In June, the national consumer price rose by 2.5% year-on-year, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month.
Wang Qing, chief macro analyst of Oriental Jincheng, said that the CPI in June rose year-on-year, mainly due to the rise in pork prices, the upward movement of international crude oil prices, and the decline in the base in the same period last year, and the overall continued to remain at a moderate level.
The rise in non-food prices is still the main reason for the year-on-year increase in the CPI.
According to Dong Lijuan, senior statistician of the Urban Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, non-food prices rose by 2.5%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, affecting the CPI rise of about 2.01 percentage points.
Looking further, among non-food items, the prices of gasoline and diesel rose by 33.4% and 36.3% respectively, and the prices of air tickets rose by 28.1%, both of which expanded.
Transportation and communication have the largest year-on-year driving effect on CPI.
Wen Bin, chief economist of Minsheng Bank, said that affected by the overall rise in international oil prices, my country's refined oil prices were raised twice in late May and mid-June, driving CPI vehicle fuel prices up 6.6% month-on-month and 32.8% year-on-year.
Energy prices kept rising, pushing non-food prices up 0.4% month-on-month.
In terms of food prices, the drag of pork prices on the year-on-year increase in the CPI narrowed from 0.34 percentage points in May to 0.08 percentage points in June.
Wen Bin said that since the price of pork bottomed out in April, the market is expected to rise further, and the phenomenon of breeding end pressure has reappeared.
"The demand for some durable consumer goods is still weak, and it still takes a process to reflect residents' income expectations and consumer confidence." Wen Bin said.
Zheng Houcheng, director of the British University Securities Research Institute, said that in July, the average wholesale price of pork broke through the 25 yuan/kg, 26 yuan/kg, 27 yuan/kg, 28 yuan/kg, 29 yuan/kg mark in a short period of time. , it is expected that the pork CPI in July will likely increase year-on-year on the basis of June, and will likely "turn positive".
It is expected that the year-on-year CPI in July will likely rise on the basis of June.
The year-on-year increase in PPI continued to fall, and the price increase in the middle and lower reaches rebounded
In June, the resumption of work and production continued to advance, the supply chain of key industrial chains was gradually smoothed and stabilized, and the effect of the policy of ensuring supply and stabilizing prices continued to show.
Looking further, the means of production fell by 0.1% month-on-month, and the means of living rose by 0.3% month-on-month, which means that the price increase in the upstream slowed down and the price increase in the middle and lower reaches picked up.
Wen Bin said that international commodity prices were differentiated in June, and international tensions continued to push up international oil and gas prices, but the global economic slowdown led to lower metal prices, and international food prices rose and fell.
Domestic upstream product prices followed the international trend, with oil and gas prices rising slightly, and coal prices rebounding.
However, the prices of ferrous, non-ferrous metals and building materials fell due to the impact of demand for automobiles and real estate, dragging down the price increase of means of production.
"Among the middle and lower reaches, the prices of chemical and textile products rose, pushing up general daily necessities and clothing by 0.1% and 0.7% month-on-month respectively. Food prices rose by 0.5% month-on-month, mainly due to the large increase in the price of live pigs, which pushed up the meat food processing industry. Factory price." Wen Bin said.
Zheng Houcheng said that considering various factors such as the base effect, tail-raising factors and new price increase factors, the PPI in July has a high probability of falling compared with June, and the decline rate is greater than 0.30 percentage points.
Inflation to rise moderately in the second half of the year
According to estimates, the core CPI excluding food and energy prices rose by 1.0% year-on-year in June, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month.
Wen Bin believes that in the future, my country will continue to face the coexistence of structural inflation pressure and external input pressure, and the slow recovery of social aggregate demand will raise the core inflation center.
Core inflation is expected to gradually move up from below 1% in the previous period to the historical average range of 1.2-1.5%.
Among them, the structural inflationary pressure is mainly reflected in the food sector. After the pork price has entered a recovery cycle, the suppressing effect on the CPI over the past year has quietly changed to a lifting effect.
In July, with the arrival of the flood season, the price of fresh vegetables has rebounded and the cyclical rise of pork is superimposed, and there may be some pressure on food prices.
However, relevant departments have recently reminded enterprises to maintain a normal slaughtering rhythm and avoid blindly pressing the slaughter.
From the perspective of external input pressure, international energy prices remain high, and the global food crisis caused by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine will also pose a certain threat to my country's food security.
However, recently, the global commodity market has gradually switched from "inflation trading" to "recession trading", and commodity prices have fallen in stages, which will alleviate some imported inflation pressures.
Wen Bin said that on the whole, it is expected that the CPI will continue to rise moderately in the second half of the year. Although the probability of breaking 3% in individual months is high, the annual average level is still controlled within the policy target.
At the same time, PPI will continue to maintain a continuous downward trend.
Inflation does not pose great pressure on monetary policy.
Wang Qing said that the increase in pork prices in the second half of the year will push up the CPI increase to a certain extent, but it will not change the overall moderate and controllable price situation. Inflation will still be the biggest difference between domestic and overseas economic fundamentals.
This also provides room for continued monetary policy in the direction of stable growth in the future.
Meng Wei, spokesperson of the National Development and Reform Commission, said recently that my country's grain, oil, meat, eggs, milk, fruit and vegetables and other important livelihood commodities have stable production and sufficient supply, especially with the large number of seasonal fresh agricultural products on the market, the market supply will continue to increase. The card points are effectively channeled, the cross-regional transportation capacity has been significantly enhanced, and there is a solid foundation for stabilizing consumer prices. The domestic CPI will continue to operate within a reasonable range, and the expected target of about 3% for the whole year can be achieved.