(Economic Watch) In the first half of the year, China's GDP will be announced soon, and a number of leading indicators will release positive signals

  China News Service, Beijing, July 10 (Reporter Wang Enbo) China's gross domestic product (GDP) and other core economic data in the first half of the year will be released soon.

Under the impact of multiple rounds of epidemics, can the economic growth rate in the first half of the year be stabilized?

Some of the first indicators released recently revealed positive signals.

  Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) is a leading indicator reflecting economic trends and is considered to be highly correlated with GDP.

  In June, China's manufacturing PMI rebounded to 50.2%, returning to expansion territory after three consecutive months of contraction.

Of the 21 industries surveyed, 13 industry PMIs are in the expansion zone.

The production and business activity expectations index was 55.2%, rising to a nearly 3-month high.

A series of signs reflect the accumulation of positive factors.

  Cheng Qiang, chief macro analyst at CITIC Securities, pointed out that as the epidemic prevention and control situation continues to improve, a package of policies and measures to stabilize the economy will be implemented at an accelerated pace, and China's manufacturing supply and demand cycle has recovered significantly.

At present, the production and operation of the manufacturing industry is still in the early stage of recovery. Considering that the number of recovering industries is expected to further increase, the business operation expectations are bright and optimistic, and the transportation and logistics conditions are further improved, it is expected that the follow-up PMI will still have upward momentum.

  Economic recovery is also reflected in the busy logistics.

The State Post Bureau of China predicts that in the first half of the year, the express delivery business volume will exceed 50 billion, a year-on-year increase of about 3.6%, and the business income is expected to be close to 500 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 2.8%.

  With the gradual easing of the epidemic, the potential of compensatory consumption has been released, and holiday promotions have effectively driven the rapid growth of business volume.

For example, during the Dragon Boat Festival (June 3-5), the industry collected about 940 million pieces, a year-on-year increase of 17%.

  Data released by the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing also showed that in June, China's logistics industry prosperity index was 52.1%, up 2.8 percentage points from the previous month.

  He Hui, assistant to the president of the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, said that the data shows that with the continued efforts to stabilize the economy and the improvement of the domestic epidemic prevention and control situation, business activities at both ends of the market have become more active.

It is expected that with the release of demand and accelerated production in the later period, the overall level of the logistics industry will return to a more active level.

  Lack of demand, one of the major concerns about the Chinese economy, has also improved.

  In China's consumer price index (CPI) in June, the core CPI excluding food and energy prices rose by 1.0% year-on-year, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month.

The research team of Guotai Junan Securities believes that this shows that there are initial signs of recovery in consumption, especially offline service consumption, which is mainly reflected in two aspects.

  On the one hand, the core CPI in June rose by 0.1% month-on-month, from slightly weaker than seasonal to slightly higher than seasonal; 1.2% and 0.3%, both of which increased from the previous month, indicating that travel consumption has recovered significantly.

  There is more data to support the recovery of the service industry.

  In June, China's service industry business activity index rose to 54.3 percent from the low base level in April and May, 7.2 percentage points higher than the previous month.

The business activity indexes of industries that were severely hit by the epidemic in the early stage have all rebounded. For example, the total business volume of industries such as railway transportation and air transportation has increased month-on-month for two consecutive months.

  With a series of positive signals, how will China's economy go in the "second half" this year?

  The Bank of China Research Institute predicts that the external environment will remain uncertain in the second half of the year. However, from the perspective of domestic development, the Chinese market is large, the industrial chain and supply chain are complete, technological innovation is developing rapidly, and the fundamentals of the long-term economic growth have not changed. The short-term economic pressure mainly comes from the shock of non-economic factors.

  The agency believes that although the GDP growth rate has been significantly reduced, China's economy has a solid foundation for stable operation, the price increase is within a reasonable range, the employment situation is generally stable, the fiscal deficit rate is less than 3%, the monetary policy is still in the normalized range, and the macro policy is still in the normal range. There is more space.

The economy is expected to pick up quarter by quarter in the second half of the year.

  Pioneer, an international asset management giant, pointed out that China's economic activity in May was slightly stronger than market expectations, with retail sales, industrial production and fixed asset investment all improving.

With the improvement of the epidemic situation, China's economy is showing a recovery trend, and future policy support is expected to increase.

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