Guaranteeing stable supply and stable prices has foundations and conditions - the price of China's economic mid-year observation in 2022

　　Xinhua News Agency, Beijing, July 9th.

　　Xinhua News Agency reporters Wei Yukun, Zhang Zhilong and Wang Su

　　Since the beginning of this year, against the background of high international inflation, my country's price movement has been generally stable.

The National Bureau of Statistics released data on the 9th. On average from January to June, the national consumer price index (CPI) rose by 1.7% over the same period of the previous year.

Expert analysis, looking forward to the second half of the year, my country's prices may continue to rise moderately, and there is a solid foundation for ensuring supply and stable prices.

Prices in the first half of the year were generally stable within a reasonable range

　　Statistics show that in the first half of the year, the monthly year-on-year CPI growth rate was lower than the expected target of about 3%. Among them, the increase in June was the highest in the first half of the year, reaching 2.5%. But still in a reasonable range.

　　The "scissors gap" between the CPI and the national producer price index (PPI) narrowed further.

In 2021, the "scissors difference" between the two will be 7.2 percentage points, and it will drop to 6 percentage points in the first half of this year.

　　Focusing on the key link of price stabilization, the Politburo meeting of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China held on April 29 made it clear that "do a good job in ensuring the supply of energy resources and stabilizing prices, do a good job in preparing for spring ploughing" and "organize the supply of important commodities for people's livelihood."

　　The central government has allocated 30 billion yuan to provide subsidies for actual grain farmers and put 1 million tons of national potash fertilizer reserves; from May 1 this year to March 31, 2023, a provisional import tax rate of zero tax will be implemented for all coal; Accelerate the release of high-quality coal production capacity, and improve the medium and long-term coal transaction price mechanism...

　　In the face of global inflationary pressure, my country is determined not to engage in "flooding"-style strong stimulus, scientifically grasp the strength, rhythm and focus of policies, ensure sufficient supply and stable prices of important livelihood commodities and basic energy, and become an important "stabilizer for global prices". ".

　　Since the beginning of this year, especially in March, the local epidemic has occurred frequently, which has brought certain pressure to ensure supply and stabilize prices.

In this regard, many parts of the country have increased the organization of supply sources, strengthened market price monitoring, analysis and early warning, and smoothed the "last meter" distribution channel to ensure that the supply of important livelihood commodities is not out of stock and kept on file.

CPI is expected to continue the moderate upward trend

　　In recent days, due to factors such as the reluctance of some farmers to sell, and the increase in consumer demand due to the stabilization of the epidemic, the price of live pigs has risen rapidly.

　　"The number of reproductive sows in the fourth quarter of last year was slightly more than the green and reasonable area for pig production capacity control. From January to May this year, the number of reproductive sows in the country has continued to be in the green and reasonable area." The Institute of Food and Nutrition Development, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs Associate researcher Zhou Lin said.

　　Comprehensive analysis shows that the overall supply of pork in the market outlook is guaranteed, and the government's control measures are sufficient.

Judging from the current supply fundamentals, my country's meat, eggs, milk, fruit, vegetable and fish production situation is good, with sufficient supply, and the price of "vegetable basket" remains stable and supported.

　　At 2:30 a.m. on the 8th, the trading halls of Shandong Shouguang Dili Agricultural Products Logistics Park began to get busy. Vegetables such as zucchini, Chinese cabbage, organic cauliflower, and Beibei pumpkin, which have been on the market recently, are sold to the whole country. everywhere.

　　"The supply of goods and services in my country's market is generally sufficient. In particular, the bumper summer grain harvest provides solid support for stable grain production throughout the year. In the second half of the year, the CPI is expected to continue to rise moderately and continue to operate within a reasonable range." Guo Liyan, director of the Comprehensive Situation Research Office of the China Academy of Macroeconomics Say.

　　It is worth noting that the current situation of epidemic prevention and control in my country is still severe, and it is very important to ensure sufficient supply and stable prices of important livelihood commodities in areas affected by the epidemic.

　　"Special attention should be paid to ensuring the supply of materials in high-risk areas of the epidemic, and further implement the linkage mechanism linking social assistance and security standards with rising prices, so as to alleviate the impact of rising prices on the basic lives of local people in difficulty." said Xu Guangjian, vice president of the China Price Association. .

PPI gains may continue to fall

　　At present, the resumption of work and production in various regions continues to advance, the supply chain of key industrial chains is gradually smooth and stable, and the effect of the policy of ensuring supply and stabilizing prices continues to emerge.

The year-on-year increase in PPI has been falling month by month, with a year-on-year increase of 7.7% in the first half of the year, lower than the 8.1% increase in the whole of last year.

　　In response to the apparent rise in commodity prices, the relevant state departments actively responded by taking timely measures such as two-way adjustment of supply and demand, joint supervision of the futures and spot markets, and effective management of expectations. The increase in PPI fell in an orderly manner.

　　Affected by external factors, the external pressure on my country's energy has increased, especially the increase in oil prices, but in general, there is still support for the stable and orderly energy supply and demand.

　　Zhao Chenxin, deputy director of the National Development and Reform Commission, previously introduced that at the end of May, coal storage in power plants under unified control across the country reached more than 159 million tons, an increase of more than 50 million tons over the same period last year; major oil and gas companies’ refined oil inventories remained at a high level, and natural gas pipeline storage and tank storage were all located at At a high level, demand can be effectively guaranteed.

　　The policy of maintaining supply and stabilizing prices of bulk commodities is also making continuous efforts.

The National Development and Reform Commission recently stated that with the approval of the State Council, when the international oil price exceeds the upper limit of 130 US dollars per barrel, the domestic refined oil price will not increase in the short term (not more than two months), and if the international oil price is higher than 130 US dollars per barrel in the follow-up The cumulative time for regulating the upper limit exceeds two months, and relevant policy measures will be clarified in advance.

　　With the tightening of global liquidity and the recent fall in international bulk commodity prices, the import impact on my country has weakened. At the same time, the effect of domestic supply and price stabilization has continued to appear, and the tail-raising factor has gradually reduced. It is expected that the PPI will continue to fall.

　　Although the increase in PPI is expected to continue to fall, commodity prices may continue to fluctuate at a high level, and the trend of transmission to CPI may continue.

Statistics show that the ex-factory prices of living materials have been rising for several consecutive months. The year-on-year increase in June climbed to 1.7%. It is expected that the prices of general daily necessities will continue to rise slightly in the second half of the year.